Barack Obama’s Back

Today’s notice: Big trouble in Republican Senate land. Barack Obama does in fact still got it, say Obama fans. Donald Trump’s got it again, say Trump fans.

Has the NRSC Failed Republican Candidates This Year?

Rarely do we see the kind of structural-level tea spilling before an election is over that NOTUS’ Alex Roarty and Nuha Dolby are hearing from campaign operatives when it comes to the NRSC. The usual complaints about some race or another getting too much attention or flight of fancy national messaging are there, but that’s not what their story today is about.

Frustrated operatives tell them the committee is not helping raise money for joint pools of ad-spending cash traditionally filled by campaigns and the NRSC. They also say too much of the money the campaigns are giving the committee is going to … the committee. FEC reports tell the tale of ballooning paychecks for NRSC staffers to the tune of “about a 23.6% increase from this time last cycle.” Pay goes up, but NOTUS analysis finds the NRSC increase this cycle “outpaces prior payroll hikes.”

This is tough to swallow in a cycle where Democrats have vastly outraised the GOP in many races. The NRSC called the criticism “bad faith” and told NOTUS their critics “are more interested in enriching themselves with outrageous super PAC media commissions than spending donor dollars efficiently and winning Senate races.”

The operatives say the NRSC took a new approach to raising and spending money this cycle, confusing some campaigns. “At the heart of the issue are three pools of fundraising cash that are usually jointly funded by the candidate and party committee,” Alex and Nuha report. “According to five Republican strategists familiar with the situation, the NRSC’s default position this election has been that it’s up to the party’s nominee to raise almost all of the money themselves, even if they are asking donors to send checks to the committee.”

It’s a good map for Republicans this year. Even though some key races are underperforming, winning back the majority is still pretty likely. But taking back the Senate may not heal this growing rift, especially if it comes alongside some close losses. “Candidates are being forced to raise their own funds just to get NRSC support — like having to dig the well and pay for the water,” a GOP strategist fumed. “Fundraising is the one reason committees exist in the first place.”

Read the story here.

Obama Is Him, Democrats Insist

Barack Obama hasn’t made a habit of public appearances since leaving the White House, except, of course, if a presidential election is around the corner.

It’s in the eleventh hour that Obama shines. At least that’s what Democrats seem to be banking on. He rallied with Tim Walz in Wisconsin on Tuesday afternoon and with Eminem in Michigan on Tuesday night. He’s set to appear with the vice president alongside Bruce Springsteen in Georgia today.

Eric Schultz, a senior adviser to the former president, told NOTUS that Obama’s strategy is to “move the needle with Democrats and persuadable voters.” But is his strategy effective? Former Obama officials and current stans are certainly feeling the 2008 magic at work even as his party still struggles with the demographics he’s courting: young voters and Black and Latino men.

“He has shown time and time again his ability to galvanize people and his ability to motivate and inspire people,” Shomari Figures, a former Obama official turned Alabama House candidate, told NOTUS.

Ray Reed, a Gen Z Democrat running for a seat in the Missouri House of Representatives, said Obama inspired his career path and there’s “absolutely no doubt” Obama is still a compelling messenger to Black men.

“Watching him get elected and following that election in sixth grade completely swooped me in,” he said. “I fell in love with the good fight.”

Read the story here.

Front Page

• ‘The Madison Problem’: Republicans Try to ‘Lose Better’ in Wisconsin’s Bluest Stronghold: Dane County has made it extremely difficult for Republicans to win statewide races in Wisconsin.
• ‘Yes, I Do’: Kamala Harris Says She Thinks Donald Trump Is a Fascist: In a CNN town hall, the vice president continued to make the case that electing Donald Trump would be dangerous for democracy.
• Harris Teases a Closing Message: Trump Is Increasingly ‘Unhinged’: Harris delivers surprise remarks on former White House chief of staff John Kelly’s comments calling Trump an “authoritarian.”
• Illinois Ballot Question Asks If Candidates Who Intimidate Election Workers Should Be Punished: State legislators are asking voters to weigh in on whether intimidating election workers, which is already illegal, should be made more illegal.
• Republicans Are Pushing Bans on Noncitizen Voting in More States Than Ever: Voters in several states will decide on ballot initiatives aimed at stopping noncitizen voting in local elections, which doesn’t happen widely.

Surprise! RNC Chair Optimistic in the Final Stretch

NOTUS reporter Reese Gorman spoke with RNC Chair Michael Whatley, who insists that Republicans are in a better place now than they were in the last two weeks of 2016 or 2020.

Whatley said it all comes down to Trump, a “one-person turnout machine,” getting people out to vote “like we’ve never seen before.”

Despite the skepticism of Trump’s GOTV operation (which has been largely led by untested groups like Turning Point USA), Whatley told Reese that Republicans have knocked on twice as many low-propensity voters’ doors as in 2020. Whatley also pointed to the “absolutely huge” boost from Elon Musk and his deep pockets.

Whatley also isn’t thinking too much about the polls.

“We have always historically seen some sort of an undervote when it comes to polling Donald Trump,” he told Reese.

Read the story here.

What a Big Tent Party Means for Progressives

Harris has amped up messaging to Republicans in the final weeks of her campaign, from her multistate swing with Liz Cheney to her guarantee to have a Republican in her cabinet. Maurice Mitchell, national director of the Working Families Party, said he understands the approach as long as Harris doesn’t forget about her base.

“The appeals that will work for some of the people you saw at the town halls with Liz Cheney will not be the appeals that resonate with the folks in West Philly,” Mitchell told NOTUS.

“The presence of some of these surrogates on the campaign trail, it doesn’t fundamentally upset me as long as the campaign is doing their job in closing the deal with some of the cross-pressured young men that Democrats in the past maybe felt like were more of a done deal,” he said.

As for post-Nov. 5, is Mitchell concerned a big tent means less room at the table for progressives?

“Nov. 6 and beyond, we will hold them to account on all their electoral promises,” he replied.

—Katherine Swartz

Number You Should Know

8.8%

That’s the average increase in Republican voter trust in Maricopa County, Arizona, elections after they toured election facilities. County Recorder Stephen Richer’s office has offered over 300 such tours since 2020 of election official’s “command center,” the ballot vault, the tabulation center and the warehouse to improve transparency. Richer partnered with UCSD to study the tours’ effects on voter confidence.

Not Us

We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by … not us.

• The Question Dogging Ted Cruz’ Senate Race: Where Is Donald Trump? by Jeremy Wallace at the Houston Chronicle
• The Make of Ozempic Is Trying to Block Compounded Versions of Its Blockbuster Drug by Kate Knibbs and Emily Mullin at Wired
• Can Kamala Harris Glock the Vote? by Emily Shugerman at The Cut

Be Social

Oh, the irony…

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