After All That

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A view of the U.S. Capitol building in Washington DC. (Mark Alfred/NOTUS) Mark Alfred/NOTUS

Today’s notice: Shutdown update. Senators not knowing things. Podcast ads vs. the FBI. Social insecurity.

Shutting It Down

The great shutdown drama of 2025 has brought thrills — Will House Republicans rally around a bill labeled a “clean” CR even if it isn’t? Yes! — and, now, a big chill. The central question about what Democrats will do in the Senate appears to have an answer, NOTUS’ Ursula Perano and Ben T.N. Mause report.

Democrats made a lot of noise about voting no, but they’re going to cave.

Only a handful of Democrats need to vote with Republicans to advance the House-passed spending bill. And with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying he’ll vote to move forward, passage is all but certain. A cloture vote for the funding bill is set for this morning.

The winner appears to be Speaker Mike Johnson, who successfully jammed Senate Democrats. NOTUS’ Reese Gorman reported that House GOP leadership had no intention of calling their members back to Washington if Democrats voted down their funding bill and failed to avert a government shutdown.

“Why would we negotiate against ourselves and bring people back?” one senior GOP aide told Reese.

Looks like they won’t have to negotiate with Democrats either.

Read the story about Democrats caving.|Read the story about House GOP leadership.

He’s Doing What With the Who Now?

An increasingly common thing happened Thursday in the Senate: members of the world’s greatest deliberative body had no idea what was going on.

After President Donald Trump that morning had called for massive new tariffs on European wine and other alcohol, NOTUS’ Mark Alfred and Helen Huiskes reported that “lawmakers were caught off guard.” When informed, “most Republican senators quickly backed the president’s policy,” they write.

One senator asked NOTUS if the wine tariffs were already in effect. Another reasoned that “if he’s doing wine, my guess is that means that Europe, the EU, is probably putting a big tariff on our wine.” (It isn’t.)

Sen. Chuck Grassley best summed up the vibe coming from lawmakers: “We’re involved in an unpredictable environment, and it changes every day, so it’s hard to answer your question.”

In the period colloquially known as Trump 1.0, reporters would routinely print out the president’s tweets to show them to lawmakers who dodged questions by feigning ignorance of Trump’s latest viral missive. As with so much in the 2.0 term, the feeling in the Senate is familiar but with a greater seriousness than last time. Things are happening and senators say they have zero clue. In addition to the booze tariffs just this week, we found Republicans unaware of the municipal D.C. budget implications of the House spending bill and blindsided by the withdrawal of Dave Weldon as nominee for CDC director.

“Part of me feels bad for Republicans,” Jim Manley, a top hand to the late Sen. Harry Reid, told us. “It’s a real problem when the best place to get information is from Elon Musk or the president himself.”

Manley allowed that even when Reid was in office, there were a lot of things rank-and-file senators didn’t know were coming from the White House that leadership-level offices like Reid’s were clued in on. Trump 2.0 could have a Senate problem if that’s not the case now. “A president blindsides leadership at his own risk,” Manley said.

—Evan McMorris-Santoro |Read the story about tariffs. |Read the story about the CDC.

Front Page

Dan Bongino and the Conflicts of Interest

The incoming deputy director at the DOJ’s cop shop has “a profile unlike any the FBI has ever seen for someone taking its No. 2 role,” NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery reports. Dan Bongino’s recent career as a MAGA broadcaster includes a fair number of corporate tie-ins and contracts that could create professional conflicts in his new job. Bongino has to go through a lot of federal background check paperwork as he takes his new gig, but Jose reports it’s “what these forms don’t capture that could cause issues for senior FBI leadership who will have to meet regularly with Bongino to discuss covert operations and ongoing investigations.”

Read Jose’s deep dive.

DOGE Report: Red State Blues

As part of Elon Musk cost-cutting blitz, the Social Security Administration is slated to close 47 leases across 21 states, NOTUS’ Helen Huiskes reports based on information found on the Department of Government Efficiency’s website. Seventeen of those states voted for Trump in 2024. Futzing with Social Security remains the stuff of political strategists’ nightmares, so even the Trump-accommodating Republican Congress seems to be keeping a close eye on this one.

“If they think they can do it with less people and less offices, then more power to them,” Rep. Bruce Westerman told Helen. “If they can’t, then that’s where I think Congress steps in with oversight.” Four Social Security offices are set to close in Westerman’s state of Arkansas.

Read the story.

Not Us

We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.

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