The Neocons Are Excited. But They Also Know Trump.

Iran, Cuba … Greenland. The possibilities are endless now for a group of hawkish conservatives many thought were left out in the cold by MAGA’s ascendancy. Or are they?

In the wake of the Venezuelan military action that put the United States in a still-undefined “control” of a foreign land, interventionist-minded Republicans are already spelling out where they would like to see this administration take its foreign policy agenda next. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump was reportedly briefed on possible strikes against Iran, as Iran’s government violently cracks down on growing protests across the country. On Sunday, he posted multiple times about Cuban regime change, even agreeing with a post that Marco Rubio could be president of Cuba.

There is confusion among this faction of the Republican Party about just how excited to be about Trump’s foreign policy agenda.

“I think that people say, ‘Oh he’s actually one of them,’” Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, told NOTUS in the days after the Venezuelan action. “No, he’s not a neocon. He’s not an interventionist. But I don’t think he fits neatly into the isolationist bucket, either.”

For now, the interventionists are trying to seize the moment. Sen. Lindsey Graham got Trump to autograph his “Make Iran Great Again” hat. Other lawmakers with longstanding interest in American-led regime change are trying to make their cases, too.

“I talk to their people all the time. I think they’re very receptive,” said Rep. Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican known as a China hawk who has also advocated intense pressure campaigns against unfriendly regimes in the Americas.

The ascendance of Rubio as the multi-titled face of American foreign policy under Trump makes people like Smith feel like they’ve got an ear to bend in the MAGA White House.

“You know, Marco and I were cochairs of the — Secretary Rubio — of the China Commission,” Smith said. “So, you know, he knows China like the back of his hands, and I think he’s very wise.”

How successful might the interventionists be at influencing things? “I just see real positive moves of promoting peace through strength,” Rep. Joe Wilson, a Republican of South Carolina, told NOTUS.

This relationship can be awkward, though. Trump is not speaking like a neocon, even in moments when he acts like one. Venezuela is not being heralded as a nascent democracy helped along by benevolent American leaders – Nicolás Maduro’s regime still runs it, but under threat of attack if it doesn’t carry out White House edicts.

The Trump-ordered bombing of Iranian nuclear sites did not come with a demand for regime change, either. The president’s public support for the mass protest movement underway in Iran has included a promise to use military action to protect dissidents. But when conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt pushed Trump to back long-exiled former royal Reza Pahlavi’s efforts to be the U.S.-based leader of the movement – a neocon move if ever there was one – the president demurred.

“Well, I’ve watched him, and he seems like a nice person. But I’m not sure that it would be appropriate, at this point, to do that as president,” Trump said after Hewitt asked if he would meet with Pahlavi. “I think that we should let everybody go out there, and we’ll see who emerges. I’m not sure necessarily that I – that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”

On Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social that “Iran is looking at FREEDOM” and that the “USA stands ready to help!!!”

So, a traditionally-understood doctrine can be hard to pin down.

“What it does suggest is, along with the bombing in Iran and the attacks in Nigeria, is that he is much more willing to use American power to advance American interests, as long as it does not require a longstanding presence,” said Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics in Public Policy Center, a conservative think tank.

Olsen sees opportunities for more American interventions but not necessarily driven by a neoconservative worldview.

“I don’t think you should expect it every month,” Olsen said. “But when the president believes that there’s an opportunity to use American military power with minimal risk to Americans and no risk at the moment of an extended ground commitment, do I think he’ll use American power? Absolutely.”

Rep. Don Bacon, a retiring Republican from Nebraska, is among those conservatives pleasantly surprised by Trump’s recent foreign policy moves. But the famously frank observer of this moment in conservative politics warns against predicting any further actions from what’s gone before.

“I’ve never bought into this isolationism or non-interventionism, so I’m sort of glad to see he’s not really that. But obviously, people in his base are mad about it,” Bacon told NOTUS. “His actions should be based on noble morals. Sometimes, I’m not sure that’s what he’s doing or not. He seems a little more transactional in how he makes his decisions.”

Republicans with an isolationist tinge are not acting like they have lost this president forever. Some Republicans, like former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, have wrapped Venezuela into broader frustrations with what Trump 2.0 actually is versus what they thought it would be.

Overall, there is an understanding among Republicans that Trump’s slogans are malleable.

Sen. Ron Johnson, who has opposed continuing U.S. aid to Ukraine, did not directly answer when asked if the second Trump White House seems more open to intervention than the first one. “They do what they have to do to maintain national security,” he told NOTUS.

“People tend to confuse the idea of America First with America Only. I don’t think he is America Only,” Rep. Rick Crawford, a veteran from Arkansas currently serving as chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, told NOTUS. “He recognizes that it’s in our interest to have a secure hemisphere.”

Crawford is among those who sees a world of possibilities opening up in the wake of Maduro’s capture.

“What’s taking place in Iran is an act of an engagement of self-determination, and that’s people saying, ‘We’ve had enough of this repressive regime.’ It’s organic,” Crawford said. “To the extent that we can support that, I think we should, and I think the president agrees with that.”

Interventionists excited that their time has come should think about Ukraine first, Short said. He pointed to Trump’s moves there as evidence that isolationists still have a lot of power in the White House.

“He’s always been more dependent on the circumstances of the time,” Short said.

But do the recent threats to regimes in Cuba and Colombia and the stepped up coveting of Greenland signal something?

“It remains to be seen,” populist Republican Sen. Josh Hawley said when asked if neoconservatism is back. “I don’t know. We’ll find out.”