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Some Republicans Fear They’re Making a Big Mistake on Reconciliation

“We better do something to bring costs down, because it’s tough sledding right now,” Sen. Josh Hawley said.

Sen. Josh Hawley

Jose Luis Magana/AP

Senate Republicans are taking their first steps this week to pass a narrow reconciliation bill that includes money for agencies in charge of immigration enforcement at the center of a funding dispute with Democrats.

A number of Republican senators, however, believe the strategy could be a mistake if leadership doesn’t broaden the bill’s scope to address voter concerns about the economy and affordability, reflecting widespread anxiety in the party about its odds of retaining control of Congress after the November midterm elections.

“There’s a very real chance we’ll lose at least the House, and we may lose the Senate, too,” Sen. Ted Cruz warned last week. “If that’s right, we have just the remainder of 2026 to pass conservative victories.”

“I think my ideal scenario would be for us to pick one, possibly two issues that would reduce the cost of living in America and on which most Republicans, if not all, could agree on,” Sen. John Kennedy told NOTUS.

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Some ideas floated by Republican lawmakers as potential items to include in the reconciliation package are aimed at lowering or offsetting the rising costs of health care, housing, gas, groceries and electricity, which have spiked amid President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and trade dispute with China and other countries around the world. Cruz, for example, wants to include more tax cuts in the bill by indexing capital gains to inflation, a longtime conservative policy goal that would benefit some homeowners.

Sen. Josh Hawley, meanwhile, has pitched a proposal to his leadership that would allow Americans to deduct health care expenses from their taxes.

“We did no taxes on tips, no taxes overtime. How about no taxes on health care?” Hawley told NOTUS. “I think we better do something to bring costs down, because it’s tough sledding right now.”

Republican leaders are sensitive to those concerns, but they maintain that loading the bill up will only slow down the process and complicate its chances of passing given the tight margins in both the House and Senate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune reiterated on Monday that leaders hope to keep the package “narrow and focused,” even as he conceded that the argument that the midterms will be won or lost over economic issues is sound.

“Elections generally are about the economy. Yes, we need to be speaking to the needs of the American people, and I think we’ve done a lot of that,” Thune told reporters on Monday. “If there’s more that we can do, I’m certainly open to it.”

“I think that some of our colleagues have good ideas about how to approach it, but in the end … it’s all about the math. It’s ‘what can you get 50 and 218 [votes] for?’ And in this environment, that’s going to be challenging, to say the least,” Thune continued. “I think right now, the goal is to ensure that those DHS agencies are funded.”

Other top Republicans, like Sen. Lindsey Graham, who is drafting this week’s reconciliation package as chair of the Senate Budget Committee, have argued that their party can address cost-of-living concerns, as well as major voting changes and Iran war funding sought by Trump and his allies on Capitol Hill, in yet another reconciliation bill later this year.

But many of his colleagues are skeptical about getting a third reconciliation bill passed given how difficult it was to convince GOP leaders to move on a second one. The budget resolution that’s expected to be unveiled on Tuesday likely wouldn’t have happened were it not for Democrats’ opposition to funding ICE without reforms to how its agents conduct immigration raids across the country.

Their blockade incensed and unified Republicans around something they all support: immigration enforcement. Trying to do that again with policies that have less widespread support in the GOP would be a much harder lift.

“What we can’t afford to do is have another expansive, acrimonious process like we had last year. I just don’t think that’s a good use of our time,” Sen. Thom Tillis said.

By adding more stuff into the mix, Sen. Kevin Cramer said, “You do just add a whole bunch more opportunity for mischief.”

“When you’re dealing with such narrow margins, generally adding things loses as many people as you gain and creates too much uncertainty,” the Republican from North Dakota said.

The Senate is expected to hold a marathon session of votes later this week on amendments to the budget resolution laying out additional spending for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection. The House would need to follow suit, before ultimately sending the legislation to Trump’s desk for his signature.

Republicans’ angst over their agenda in Washington comes amid broad, bipartisan dissatisfaction with the economy and the war with Iran. A majority of voters blame Trump for the rise in gasoline prices, including 22% of Republicans, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released last week. Moreover, just 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, while 63% disapprove — including 50% who said they disapprove strongly — the lowest point of Trump’s second term, according to a new NBC News poll.

Trump has dismissed polls that have found Americans souring on his presidency, as well as economic data reflecting the toll of the ongoing war in the Middle East, where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked a key shipping lane, driving up oil prices around the globe. Trump insisted last week that the price of gas was “not very high,” contradicting his energy secretary who acknowledged it may stay above $3 a gallon on average through 2027.

Rising prices and Trump’s inability to stay on message in the middle of an ongoing war with Iran has given Democrats an opportunity to go on offense and hammer Republicans for not paying enough attention to pocketbook issues at home.

“We should be debating legislation to help people pay for groceries, afford the rent and bring down their electric bills,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a Senate floor speech on Monday. “At a moment when President Trump claims we cannot afford Medicare or day care, Republicans somehow think that we can give ICE and Border Patrol a blank check.”