Recess Over: Hill Republicans Return to Washington Worried About Iran War Backlash

Senate Republicans are staring down major fallout from the Iran war as they grapple with gas prices that show few signs of letting up and pending battles on the floor over war powers resolutions. They also risk being viewed as out of touch, as their agenda is largely focused on immigration and voting bills — two issues that are largely unrelated to those in the Middle East.

Members of Congress return to Washington this week to a state of play far different from the one they left more than two weeks ago. President Donald Trump has since teased the destruction of the Iranian “civilization,” only to back off hours later and agree to what has become a tenuous ceasefire.

Gas prices have since climbed above $4 nationally and are expected to remain high for months amid the tumult in the Strait of Hormuz. Democrats are set to force Republicans to go on the record once again this week with a war powers resolution demanding the president cease military operations unless Congress authorizes them.

All of this is putting Republicans in a difficult spot as they remain in the dark on where the war effort is heading, with members complaining that the administration is not briefing them enough as questions mount by the day.

“We’re getting into the short game, and we need details if they have any prayer of getting funding,” one Senate Republican told NOTUS of the soon-to-expire 60-day mark, after which congressional approval is required, adding that the administration being “all over the map” message-wise isn’t helping matters.

“Unless this is one of the most sophisticated strategies that plan all of these fits and starts as part of some sort of deception campaign, it looks like there’s not a coherent one coming out of the White House — and there needs to be.”

The war has presented a myriad of problems in recent weeks for Republicans, who have largely stayed silent on the twists and turns as they have been back in their home states since March 27. The most acute one lately has been rising gas prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an agency within the Department of Energy, forecast early last week that the price per gallon will reach an average monthly high of roughly $4.30 this month. The average price would also sit above $3.70 per gallon through the end of the year— and that’s if the war ends in April.

After arguing that the price would go down in the near-term at the outset of the war, Republicans are starting to come to grips with the idea that prices will remain stubbornly high. They are worried that it will only exacerbate the high costs of other goods for Americans.

What is unclear, however, is whether Republicans on Capitol Hill will take any steps to address the economic impacts or exercise their oversight powers with respect to the war. Senate Republicans are instead focused on their reconciliation bill, which can be passed with majority support, to fund Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the SAVE America Act, a top priority of Trump’s and conservatives that would enact voting restrictions.

That leaves the party at risk of looking like it’s focused on the wrong priorities, especially if the war drags on past the two-week ceasefire and the 60-day threshold when members may need to consider voting to continue the war efforts.

“I don’t think they have to worry about being seen as out of touch because they’re acting out of touch. They’re doing it to themselves,” one national Republican operative said.

“It is a problem because it’s an issue that we should easily win,” the operative continued, pointing to pocketbook issues. “But if all we’re doing is doing things to appeal to our loony folks and [Speaker Mike] Johnson keeps caving over and over again to the small, ineffective Freedom Caucus folks instead of just doing the things that have to be done for the majority — like this is how we get here, right?”

Polls suggest the party’s focus is being misdirected. According to a CNN poll taken in late March, 67% said that Trump has not paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems, with only 32% saying he has.

Forty percent of those polled said that the economy, cost of living and jobs is the biggest issue, with less than half of that total pointing to foreign policy. Only 5% sided with elections and voting.

Adding to the trouble, consumer prices spiked by 3.3% year over year in March, with the lion’s share of that coming from the war’s impact on gas prices. According to the Consumer Price Index report on Friday, the gasoline index increased 21% over the month, marking the largest monthly increase in nearly 60 years.

Republicans are well aware of the political considerations, especially after using sky-high gas prices to slam Democrats throughout 2022 en route to electoral success. Republicans caution that the reason is different — with the 2022 increase being due to high Democratic spending and inflation, and the current spike being due to the war.

“I think it is a very different thing,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told NOTUS, arguing that the current uptick is due to “America’s vital national security interests.” Still, he conceded, “the impact or the effect is the same. People are feeling it. … That is an issue on which I think people do vote.”

Congress is also expected to receive a request to approve $98 billion in funding for the Iran war, a vote that will likely be politically controversial with domestic concerns at the top of voters’ minds.

More immediately troubling to some Republicans were the president’s spate of comments through Easter weekend, during which he called on Iran to “open the Fuckin’ Strait” and that a “whole civilization will die.” One Senate Republican told NOTUS that members were floored by the stream of remarks.

“There’s definitely a lot of ‘what the fuck?’ moments,” the Senate Republican said when asked about the reaction of colleagues they’ve spoken to.

The threats to wipe out the Iranian people led dozens of House Democrats to back impeaching or removing Trump from office over what they viewed as erratic and dangerous comments. Democratic Sen. Andy Kim told reporters on Thursday that he agreed Trump should be ousted, making him one of only a couple of members in the upper chamber to publicly agree.

It is also spawning a vote that is expected this week on another war powers resolution, with Democrats arguing that nothing has improved for the U.S. since the war kicked off on Feb. 28.

“This war has made us worse off today than when it started,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters in New York on Wednesday. He pointed to Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, the strength of the Iranian regime and Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, among other things.

“It’s just incredible. This is one of the very worst military and foreign policy actions that the United States has ever taken,” he added.