Senate Republicans are breezing through President Donald Trump’s nominees. And they’re ready, should they be so lucky, for one more: a Supreme Court justice.
Some senators are going so far as to hope — even forecast — that a seat will open up on the bench during Trump’s term.
Senate Judiciary member Sen. Ted Cruz told NOTUS that there’s “a very real possibility we will see one or more vacancies in the next few years.”
“Just given the relative ages, it would not surprise me at all to see multiple Supreme Court vacancies over the next four years,” he added.
Sen. Tommy Tuberville said there was a “good chance” Trump could get one seat, “maybe possibly two.”
“Now, it could be a sitting Republican, you know. I know most of those people, and they have not indicated anything to me or anybody. But you just never know,” Tuberville said.
Sen. Josh Hawley, another Judiciary Committee member, said it was “likely” in the next four years — “maybe two years” — that there would be a vacancy or two on the court.
“I don’t say that based on a hope or any inside information,” Hawley said, adding that he’d heard “all kinds of speculation” about who wants to retire that “may or may not be true.”
And when asked if Republicans were hoping for a vacancy, GOP Sen. John Cornyn said, “Heck yeah!”
“That’s one of the biggest accomplishments of the first Trump term, is three Supreme Court justices,” added Cornyn, who also serves on the Judiciary Committee. “If he’s able to nominate a couple more, I think that’s probably some sort of record.”
Even with four or five justices, Trump would be far short of George Washington and Franklin D. Roosevelt, who both appointed eight justices. Trump was, however, able to set records with his total number of judicial confirmations during his first term — a number Democrats narrowly beat toward the end of President Joe Biden’s tenure.
But Trump had three successful chances to nominate Supreme Court justices, dramatically shifting the ideological tilt of the bench. Biden only had one opportunity, and conservatives now hold a commanding 6-3 majority on a court that’s become increasingly political.
A retirement or death on the court could pave the way for Trump to appoint a fourth justice, which would be the most appointed by a single president since Dwight D. Eisenhower. Even if a conservative departed, it’d be an opportunity for Trump to appoint a young loyalist to a lifetime seat. And if a liberal left, the conservative majority would only grow.
With Senate Republicans holding a 53-seat margin — and Republicans already nuking the filibuster on the Supreme Court in 2017 when Neil Gorsuch was confirmed — the GOP has an unusual amount of buffer to lose votes. But Republicans have already demonstrated incredible fealty to Trump in confirming his cabinet.
Case in point: Every Trump nominee put to a vote has been confirmed thus far.
Some of those nominees have been no small feat. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was confirmed to lead the Department of Health and Human Services on Thursday despite a long record of peddling conspiracies about vaccines and an apparent lack of knowledge on the Medicare system. Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed as director of national intelligence on Wednesday despite curious associations with Russia and former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Fox News personality Pete Hegseth was confirmed as secretary of defense earlier this month despite a lack of relevant experience, allegations that he was abusive to women and acknowledgments from Hegseth that he had abused alcohol in the past and cheated on former partners.
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz — who somehow would have topped all three in controversy due to allegations, detailed in an Ethics Committee report, that he paid a 17-year-old minor for sex, abused drugs and attended a number of parties with sex workers — was never formally nominated to serve as attorney general. He withdrew from consideration before Trump was even sworn into office.
Regardless of whether Gaetz could have become the nation’s top law enforcement officer after being the focus of a Justice Department investigation only a couple of years before, Republicans are keeping in line with Trump and his nominees. And senators have looked at the confirmation battles as a key way to reshape government.
A big part of that discussion is the age of the court.
Age — a touchy subject in the Senate, which derives its name from a Latin word (“senex”) that means “old man” — is a unique factor with the Supreme Court. Lifetime appointments mean vacancies are frequently created by justices passing away. Ruth Bader Ginsburg was the most recent to die while on the bench; she was 87 years old.
The eldest on the current court is Clarence Thomas, who is 76, followed by Samuel Alito, who is 74. Both are conservatives, and Thomas is seen as particularly close with Trump. The next eldest are liberal Sonia Sotomayor, 70, and conservative Chief Justice John Roberts, 70.
Toward the end of President Barack Obama’s term, some on the left mounted pressure on Ginsburg to retire to ensure that a Democratic president could fill her seat. She did not. And when she died in September 2020, Republicans rushed to confirm Amy Coney Barrett in the waning days of the Trump presidency, even though Republicans had held up Merrick Garland’s nomination for nearly a year, after conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died on Feb. 13, 2016.
The politics surrounding vacancies have become extremely partisan and consequential — so much so that Ginsburg’s legacy will always have an asterisk on the left because she refused to retire and was replaced by a Republican.
Still, Republicans say it’s each justice’s choice whether or not to retire, and senators stopped well short of pressuring any of the current justices to retire — at least, for now, in the infancy of Trump’s second term.
“He seems to be in great health,” Hawley said of Thomas. “Alito is in great health. I’d hate to lose either of them. If they wanted to retire, then that’s their decision. But I’d much prefer to see a liberal retire.”
“Those are very personal decisions for people,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt, another Judiciary Committee member. “We’re busy with other stuff right now, for sure.”
But, at some point, that “other stuff” will quiet down, and locking in a lasting conservative majority might prove to be the most important thing the Senate does under Trump.
It’s an uneasy reality for Senate Democrats, who’d have little legislative ability to fight back if an opening occurred within the next two years. Senate Democrats hope to take back control of the chamber as soon as 2026, but that’s a long ways away — and the map isn’t especially favorable.
The spotlight is especially on Sotomayor and fellow liberal justices Elena Kagan, 64, and Ketanji Brown Jackson, 54.
“I appreciate their public service and support them staying in their position as long as they’re willing,” Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla said. “They’re providing an important service for the country and for the Constitution.”
But much of the situation is a matter of chance.
“Over a four-year period of time, there’s always the possibility of a vacancy,” Republican Sen. Mike Rounds said. “We don’t control that. But if there was one, I think we’d be able to handle it.”
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Ursula Perano is a reporter at NOTUS.