BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Speaker Mike Johnson is in the middle of a 30-day campaign stretch stumping for vulnerable Republican members and top challengers who will decide the majority come November. But Johnson’s political fate is likely tied to theirs.
The midterms will effectively decide if President Donald Trump’s lame-duck era starts in 2027 or if he has two more years of Republican control in Congress to move his agenda. If Democrats retake the gavel, the job description of the top Republican leader will change dramatically and the House GOP conference may look elsewhere for a figure to push back against a slew of investigations of the Trump administration.
Prior to a campaign stop for Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pennsylvania), Johnson dismissed the idea he would need to entertain a run for minority leader.
“We’re going to win, so I don’t have to answer that question,” Johnson told NOTUS in an interview at Saucon Valley Country Club. “I intend to be the speaker going forward.”
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Johnson claims to have the hardest job “in the world” navigating a two-seat majority with colleagues who routinely curse at him, call him names and refuse to be team players. But, through it all he continues to want to lead the conference, even with the constant backlash that comes with it.
Sometimes that blowback comes from Trump, who has at times joked that he has two jobs: being president and being speaker, due to the fact he is often the closer to secure the votes for Republican priority bills.
But the speaker says others in the White House view it differently.
“Some on his staff have said, ‘No, it’s really like you’re co-president,’” Johnson recalled to NOTUS. “Because the president and I speak all the time.”
But the harshest criticisms of Johnson at times come from his own members. Some have stormed out of rooms and slammed doors on him, blocked key priority bills or just refused to vote with leadership altogether.
Still, Johnson says he doesn’t take it personally.
“I don’t get my feelings hurt. I never do,” Johnson said. “With leadership comes attacks and, you know, defamatory remarks and all. That’s just part of the job. You’re going to be criticized no matter what you do.”
He also claims he doesn’t hold any grudges against the members who launch personal attacks.
Referring to a Bible verse, Johnson said he wants to practice “the ministry of reconciliation” and always be open “to bring people back into the fold.”
“I don’t do this job for the praise of men. I do it because it’s a responsibility,” he said.
Despite this approach, it doesn’t mean he’s totally opposed to punishing members who aren’t team players.
Johnson said there have been close to “100 members who have come forward with ideas” on how to adjust the conference rules to reprimand members who derail Republican legislation.
“That’s the cart before the horse,” he added. “I mean, when we are organizing for the next Congress, I suspect there will be some proposed amendments to the rules to try to adjust that.”
Johnson has led the Republican conference through three successful — while at times tumultuous — years. He gets credit for uniting the various factions to pass Trump’s signature tax bill in 2025. But now comes his biggest test: the midterms.
Similar to Johnson, a lot of top leaders spend their August traveling across the country to campaign for top-tier candidates.
In August, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise visited 13 states and 19 cities to campaign with 18 members and 12 GOP challengers. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer has made stops in Ohio and Pennsylvanie while recovering from foot surgery. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith has been to seven states to campaign with 11 candidates, and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan has so far been to seven states and campaigned with 10 candidates.
But Johnson has a lot more riding on the midterms than others.
If the Republicans are to pull it out and keep the majority, his position atop the Republican conference is all but secure. But if they lose the majority, Johnson’s future becomes much more uncertain.
Republicans across the House GOP conference, including some in leadership, don’t believe Johnson will run for minority leader and will step down from House leadership.
The speaker insisted to NOTUS he isn’t imagining life in the minority. “Really, I never thought about it,” he said.
But others in the conference are thinking about it.
NOTUS has previously reported on Jordan’s apparent angling for a leadership position. Scalise and Emmer are also viewed as contenders for the top spot should Republicans lose the majority.
Still, if Republicans lose in November, there will be a fight for the top spots.
“In the political burn down that’s coming, we slaughter everybody at the front of the room,” one senior GOP member told NOTUS.
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