Centrist Democrats Are Plotting How Not to Blow It in 2028

CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA — Centrist Democrats are beginning to plot for the next presidential election, and they’re organizing around a warning: Democrats need to moderate before 2028 or they’ll lose another presidential race to MAGA.

“Ultimately, the question is are we gonna nominate someone in ’28 who is going to try to appeal to enough moderates that we can win the White House and both chambers — or not,” Matt Bennett, executive vice president of public affairs for the center-left think tank Third Way, said in an interview. “It’s very simple.”

Third Way hosted a conference of centrist Democrats, called Winning the Middle, over Sunday and Monday, inviting Democratic strategists and elected officials from across the country to discuss how they can best steer the party toward a moderate candidate during the next presidential primary.

They’re trying to learn not just from past Democratic failures, but from their own setbacks, too — with leaders drilling in on what they considered to be former President Joe Biden’s abandonment of centrism once he hit the White House.

Attendees watched presentations on in-depth poll data touting a moderate approach, speeches castigating party leaders for mocking religious voters and forums with local Democratic elected officials recounting their fights against liberal activists. The speakers all agreed: The party needs to stop using land acknowledgments and listening to Bluesky and start articulating a strong but tempered approach that emphasizes getting things done.

Democrats are embroiled in a simmering debate between the party’s centrist and progressive wings over how it can return to political power after the electoral wipeout of 2024. Contra the centrists, leftist leaders have argued that the party must embrace a bold vision of economic populism to energize its base and win over independent blue-collar voters.

That debate — and Monday’s conference — is now playing out against the outbreak of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch an expansive bombing campaign in Iran, potentially plunging the country into its first prolonged war since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The conflict did not discourage any political discussion here among Democrats, who appeared to be almost uniformly against Trump’s action.

“Given the war, should we be gathering here and now to chart the future for Democrats? My answer: You’re damn right we should be,” Jonathan Cowan, Third Way’s founder, said in a speech opening the conference. “Because we can hate the regime in Iran, and you can celebrate their downfall, but you can also have legitimate skepticism about the war.”

Cowan’s remarks, however, focused on what he said were a lot of hard truths Democrats had to accept about their party and its woeful state, blaming its losses on left-wing ideas like defunding the police and eliminating the use of fossil fuels. The drift left started after former President Barack Obama left office in 2017, he said, pushed by progressive organizations more interested in winning votes from socialists than appealing to regular voters.

He and other speakers emphasized throughout the conference that Democratic candidates who adopt a moderate approach will be rewarded by Democratic voters, in large part because they believe rank-and-file members of the party are much less liberal than is widely believed.

One-third of the party’s primary voters identify as “moderate,” according to a new poll from Third Way presented at the conference, with as many of them saying they are “conservative” (5%) as “socialist” (6%). Three-quarters of Democratic voters, meanwhile, would prefer a candidate who compromises to achieve their goals, compared with just one-quarter of them who want a candidate willing to stick to their principles even if they get less done.

Democratic primary voters are more likely to watch “Law & Order” than “Heated Rivalry,” said one speaker, saying that candidates need to recalibrate what they think the average member of the party looks like and believes.

“I want you to remember that Bluesky is not the place to go take the temperature” of Democratic voters, said Lanae Erickson, senior vice president for social policy and politics at Third Way. “And the person in your mind should not be the campus protestor.”

Centrist Democrats, including those at Third Way, celebrated the result of the last competitive Democratic presidential primary, when Biden defeated Democratic socialist challenger Bernie Sanders. Biden was the most moderate of all the major Democratic candidates that year, and his victory in the primary and later in the general election over Trump was viewed as a great victory for that faction of the party.

But moderate Democrats now blame Biden for the party’s loss in 2024, after he governed in a way they said was more in step with Sanders’ agenda than the approach he had promised on the campaign trail.

“At times, the administration sounded like a caricature of wokeness,” Cowan said, mentioning Biden’s immigration policy and plan to cancel student debt. “Yes, age was a problem for Biden. But these failures had nothing to do with age.”

Biden’s approach to governing wasn’t the only mistake Democrats have made in the recent past, speakers said. Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss of Massachusetts said the party should have backed reopening schools by May 2020, when he said the medical evidence during the pandemic was clear that it should be done.

“Democrats need to start by saying, ‘It was wrong,’” Auchincloss said. “‘And it’s not gonna happen again.’”

Brooke Jenkins, the district attorney of San Francisco, said even in her famously left-wing city, her constituents rewarded her for doing the basic work of prosecuting criminals.

“If your city charter says you’re supposed to prosecute crime, prosecute crime,” Jenkins said. “If it says you’re supposed to clean the streets, clean the streets. And do it effectively. Don’t just check a box. Make sure that the street is actually clean.”

Democrats could potentially have an enormous field of 2028 candidates, a list that includes 2024 presidential nominee Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

The conference singled out just a few of them: Whitmer, Beshear and Shapiro each received praise during one presentation, which labeled them “get-shit-done” Democrats for their pragmatic approaches.