The Texas Senate race is turning into the wildest mess of the midterms — and it’s just getting messier.
The battle between Republican Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the GOP Senate nomination just continues to get bloodier. Cornyn trails in the primary polls, but is broadly seen as the best Republican to defeat the eventual Democratic nominee.
“I’ve been through every kind of election you can imagine,” Cornyn told NOTUS last week. “So I’m not too worried about any of them. We know what we need to do to win, and we intend to.”
Meanwhile, Paxton’s election vulnerabilities were on full display last week when his wife filed for divorce “on biblical grounds,” a seeming reference to the affair rumors that have swirled around the scandal-plagued Paxton for years. (Adultery is grounds for divorce under biblical standards.)
Republican operatives in D.C., who have made little secret of their preference for Cornyn, were quick to jump on the divorce as another reason why Texas should get behind Cornyn.
“What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement. “No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has, and we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time.”
Rodriguez also said in a separate statement that Cornyn is “the best candidate to ensure Texas doesn’t fall into Democrat hands.”
But Republicans in D.C. aren’t the ones voting in the Texas primary. And if Paxton wins the GOP nomination next year, as current polling suggests, the NRSC and other Republican campaign arms will be stuck touting the man they dubbed a moral stain just months prior.
But in fundraising, at least as of this last quarter, Cornyn’s leading. Paxton touted $2.9 million in fundraising last quarter. Cornyn, a hefty fundraiser in Senate GOP circles, raised $3.9 million between his campaign and joint fundraising arm, though a person close to Paxton told NOTUS the day his divorce was announced was his second best day of small-donor fundraising since he launched.
For Cornyn, the alarm bells are clearly going off.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune last week met with President Donald Trump and the Senate Leadership Fund, a group with close ties to Thune that is helping Cornyn, to talk about the primary at the White House. Trump is cautiously waiting to see what happens in the polls before he engages, a person familiar with the conversation told NOTUS.
And while Paxton and Cornyn continue beating on each other, other Republicans — like Reps. Wesley Hunt and Ronny Jackson — are also eying a bid, according to two people familiar with their plans.
Cornyn and Cruz traveled to Texas on Friday with Trump aboard Air Force One to survey the damage from the deadly Texas floods over the Fourth of July weekend, marking a public moment between the two Republicans that could help Cornyn. But notably, Hunt was on the flight as well. Trump avoided making any declarations about the race during the trip.
With or without Trump endorsing, the Republican primary could turn into an all-out war — and that’s before either party has a nominee.
On the Democratic side, operatives in the state see an opening if Paxton can pull out a victory over Cornyn. Former Rep. Colin Allred is the favorite in the Democratic primary, and polls show him beating Paxton in a matchup.
But Allred also might not be alone in seeking the nomination, and some Democrats question whether a candidate who lost by nearly 9 points just last year to Sen. Ted Cruz is the best person for the task.
Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke are also looking at the race, three people familiar with their intentions told NOTUS, and if any of them get in, Democrats could also end up spending a good deal of money before the general election.
With that consequence in mind, the four Democrats had a Zoom call last month where they discussed the Texas Democratic primary, a person familiar told NOTUS. Another person familiar with the call described the conversation as friendly, between people who want to see Texas flip to Democrats, but Allred jumped in, and the rest are still looking at the race.
There have been signs from each of them that they may actually jump in.
Talarico, who’s the youngest of the four at 36 and is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, recorded a podcast with manosphere influencer Joe Rogan. Castro has been doing town halls across Texas during congressional recesses. And O’Rourke recently held his own town hall — albeit in Virginia, which could be a sign that he may have larger aspirations than the Senate.
For all four men, it’s clear Paxton would be their preferred candidate. But Paxton also seems like the preferred candidate for Texas GOP voters.
While Cornyn and his allies still see a pathway for him to win the promise, polls have repeatedly shown Paxton leading ahead of Cornyn by sometimes double-digit numbers. And just as Trump is staying on the sidelines — for the moment — Cruz is also staying neutral.
When NOTUS asked Cruz last week if other contestants considering entering the race — which would increase the risk of a runoff election — might change that, he said he was only talking about the flooding in Texas for the time being.
Still, Senate GOP leaders have publicly thrown their weight behind Cornyn and are undeterred by his sagging poll numbers.
Thune has endorsed Cornyn, as has Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso.
Barrasso told NOTUS: “I support Senator Cornyn. He’s been the whip. He knows the Senate. I think he’s been an incredibly strong conservative leader for Texas and for the country.”
“And I’m going to continue to support him,” Barrasso said.