A New Poll Shows a Tight Fight for Platner Replacements

A poll of potential replacements for Graham Platner, who dropped out of the Maine Senate race on Wednesday, found a trio of former gubernatorial candidates in tight head-to-head battles against Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

The statewide poll, shared first with NOTUS, pitted Collins against former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former state Senate President Troy Jackson. It found the potential contests at 47 percent for Shah to 46 percent for Collins; 47-47 for Bellows versus Collins; and Jackson getting 47 percent to Collins’ 48 percent. All three results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Shah and Jackson have both announced plans to run, while Bellows said she is “seriously considering” it.

The survey was conducted by Z to A Research and commissioned by a pro-Shah outside group, according to a person directly familiar with the research.

The new poll comes as a growing slate of Democrats in Maine begin a frantic sprint to position themselves as the best candidate to revive their party’s chances of beating Collins.

Platner’s campaign team conducted its own flash poll on Tuesday, Politico reported. It found Jackson, a former Platner ally, as performing the best against Collins, 49 percent to 44 percent. Bellows and Shah, per the Platner poll, were both essentially tied with the Republican senator.

The poll shared with NOTUS does not include head-to-head tests of other recently announced candidates, including Maine Beer Company founder Dan Kleban and former Capitol Hill staffer Jordan Wood, who lost a contested primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

Platner, who has been accused of sexual assault, exited the Senate race on Wednesday, after a cavalcade of former supporters called on him to step aide. Following the allegations, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and its aligned super PAC said it would yank its financial support for Platner. In a video announcing his exit, Platner denied the allegations and blamed “the political establishment.”

Maine Democrats are now scrambling to find a replacement for one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country. The Maine Democratic Party, charged with naming a new nominee by July 27, approved a plan to hold a nominating convention ahead of that deadline. The convention would include 600 delegates, primarily made up of local party officials, who would ultimately select the replacement.

The Z to A Research poll of 988 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, ahead of Platner’s announcement that he was leaving the race. A quarter of voters said they thought Platner should stay in, while nearly two-thirds said he should drop out. Additionally, 72 percent of voters view Platner very or somewhat unfavorably.