Republicans and Democrats are fighting over Latino voters in a handful of House districts, keenly aware that they could determine who wins the House majority.
Those districts are places where President Donald Trump made significant gains in 2024, but now polling shows they are frustrated with the stagnated economy. For Democrats, that’s an opportunity to try to win back some of the constituencies they lost in 2024.
“I think we need to continue to educate and inform Latino voters of the impacts of what this administration has done, and I think there’s a lot of buyer’s remorse,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat in a tough bid for reelection in Texas’ 34th Congressional District.
“We can’t be critical of people who voted for Trump,” said Gonzalez, whose district Trump won in 2024. “We need to just have a very honest conversation that, ‘Hey, a lot of us were duped and we’ve made a mistake, and we need to fix that mistake.’ And we do that by showing up this next election and vote to change the power in Congress and put the stop to some of the policies, the painful policies to Latino communities that have come out of this administration.”
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The congressional districts that both parties are paying attention to span five states: Texas’ 15th, 23rd, 28th 34th and 35th; Arizona’s 6th; California’s 22nd; New Mexico’s 2nd; and Colorado’s 8th. All are seats with majority-Latino electorates, and all are considered within reach for either party depending on how voting breaks.
A spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Democrats’ campaign arm, said the organization is working with candidates and incumbents to make clear to Latino voters in these battleground districts that a House Democratic majority would mean change to the economy.
“The DCCC has been committed to earning the Latino vote since day one by investing early and aggressively to reach these voters. While House Republicans are focused on making life more expensive for hardworking Latino families, the DCCC is showing voters exactly how the Democratic majority will deliver for them,” Bridget Gonzalez, a spokesperson for DCCC, told NOTUS in a statement.
But some Republican candidates are betting that pocketbook issues will help them keep the Latino voters they’ve gained in recent years in their coalition.
“I believe that [high prices are] temporary, the spike that we’re seeing with the conflict we’re having in the Middle East is temporary, and to hang on, we’re going to get through it,” said Greg Cunningham, a Republican trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.
Cunningham, who is Hispanic, said his own background gives him an advantage in reading the mood of Latino voters in his district.
“Because I am Hispanic and because I am pretty sensitive to what’s going on here in New Mexico, I am listening and I am addressing those concerns, and I feel confident that the way that we are speaking to Hispanic voters, being Hispanic myself, and the plan that we’re putting forth really addresses those things,” he said, referencing Republicans’ agenda in Congress. “I’m not worried about a huge swing coming back the other way and going away from the Republican Party, but I am addressing and acknowledging the needs of the people here.”
Republican-aligned Latino organizers argue Democrats’ values don’t match what they see in these Latino communities.
“We’re hearing a lot that Democrats have failed to give Latino voters something to vote for, that they’re focused more on who to vote against, and that is not good enough,” said Daniel Garza, president of the Libre Initiative, a conservative Latino advocacy group.
An UnidosUS bipartisan poll from May suggested economic anxiety is the driving force behind voter sentiment, and that rising costs and inflation are shaping daily life for Hispanic families and fueling broader dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. Nearly 7 in 10 respondents (68%) said they believe the U.S. is on the wrong track, and two-thirds (66%) said Trump and congressional Republicans aren’t prioritizing economic improvement.
Garza acknowledged that Latinos across the country are disappointed with the stagnating economy and said he recognizes that the Trump administration may have played a role in that.
“I think Latinos, even though they’ve expressed certain disappointment, to be honest, with the economic results of the Trump administration thus far, I think a lot of us are seeing that Democrats ain’t offering viable pro-growth policy alternatives,” Garza said.
With control of the House hanging on a small number of seats, both parties say the races in majority-Latino districts will be decided less by national messaging than by which side does the more convincing job of showing up.
“Over the past decade, Hispanic voters have steadily moved toward the Republican Party because Republicans are earning their trust and delivering on the issues that matter most: safer neighborhoods, lower costs, lower taxes, secure borders and the opportunity to achieve the American Dream,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Christian Martinez told NOTUS in a statement. “Democrats spent decades taking Latino voters for granted. Republicans are showing up, listening and earning every vote.”
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