Political newcomer Denise Powell is the projected winner of the Democratic primary in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, according to the Associated Press, beating out a state senator with deep roots in the district.

The red state’s lone swing seat is a key pickup opportunity for the party if it wants to retake the House. The primary race was a packed and tense contest that drew a barrage of outside spending — largely in support of Powell over state Sen. John Cavanaugh. It’s the most spending the district has ever seen in a Democratic primary.

Powell has never run for office, but she’s worked to get Democrats elected in her state through Women Who Run Nebraska — a political action committee she co-founded in the wake of Donald Trump’s first presidential victory. Much of the race focused on how its outcome could affect the 2028 presidential election because Nebraska splits its Electoral College votes by congressional district. If Cavanaugh won the primary, Nebraska’s Republican governor would have chosen his successor in the state Senate, which would move Republicans one step closer to changing the law allowing Nebraska to split its electoral votes in presidential elections.

A half-dozen outside groups and campaigns spent more than $7 million on the race. Pro-Powell super PACs ran ads warning that a Cavanaugh victory would threaten the district’s “blue dot” status.

The Democratic Majority for Israel bought, and then canceled, a TV ad supporting her. The group “decided to direct our resources into other races,” a person familiar with DMFI’s planning previously told NOTUS.

Republican Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate who is retiring after this term, has held the seat for nearly a decade. But Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, respectively, each won the district in the last two presidential cycles, making the district a key opportunity for Democrats in November. The Cook Political Report moved it last summer from a “toss up” seat to “lean Democrat.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put the district on its offensive target list but did not make it part of its “Red to Blue” program — a group of highly competitive seats for which the committee prioritizes training and fundraising.

Powell will face Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member, in November.