Twin anxieties are dominating Tuesday’s Democratic primary election for Nebraska’s “blue dot” House seat: whether a flood of outside money can swing a seat in Congress and whether that primary result could ultimately swing a presidential election.

A half-dozen outside groups and candidates’ campaigns are dumping more than $7 million into Nebraska ahead of the election, the most spending the state’s 2nd Congressional District has ever drawn in a Democratic primary. The vast majority of that cash has gone to boost Denise Powell, a first-time candidate who worked in Democratic politics, over state Sen. John Cavanaugh, who boasts deep roots in the district. The pair are the top two contenders for the now-open district Kamala Harris won by nearly 5 percentage points in 2024.

All that outside spending is now the focus in the race’s final days. And if the fact of the historic spending wasn’t enough to rile up the primary, there’s the nationally contentious issues the outside groups and candidates are training that money on: presidential elections and Israel. Pro-Powell groups, including EMILY’s List and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC, ding Cavanaugh for threatening the state’s “blue dot” status, should the GOP governor appoint his replacement in the state legislature. Cavanaugh’s closing TV ad hits Powell for being supported by “Trump-backed AIPAC money.”

Late last month, the pro-Israel group Democratic Majority for Israel reserved, then canceled, a TV ad buy appearing to support Powell. A different super PAC, New Democrat Majority PAC, then reserved an anti-Cavanaugh ad buy at similar cost levels, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

DMFI’s ad buy and cancellation — followed by Cavanaugh’s subsequent attack ads — represent the latest flash point for pro-Israel groups, which have already played a major role in Democratic primaries in Illinois and New Jersey. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee isn’t spending in Nebraska, a spokesman said, but its interventions in other primaries sparked blowback among Democratic primary voters, who are split on the U.S.-Israel relationship in light of the Iran War and Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

“It’s the next chapter in this story,” said Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of the progressive pro-Israel group J Street, which has endorsed Cavanaugh. “Based on polling, it absolutely is a negative for anyone to be associated with this money, so our advice is, go all in and make it really clear that your opponent is liked by a group that primary voters don’t like.”

After it canceled its ad buy, DMFI “has not made any contributions to other groups regarding NE-02,” Brian Romick, the group’s president, said in a statement to NOTUS.

Another person familiar with DMFI’s planning, granted anonymity to describe internal deliberations, said the group “decided to direct our resources into other races.” A second person directly familiar with the New Democrat Majority PAC said “no funds were transferred from DMFI to New Democrat Majority PAC.”

Another anti-Cavanaugh ad popped up in the district last week, backed by what appears to be Republican-funded super PAC, Lead Left PAC, meddling in the Democratic primary.

The super PACs backing Powell have zeroed in on a different contentious issue in the district: maintaining Nebraska’s “blue dot” status. Nebraska splits its Electoral College votes by congressional district, rather than winner-take-all, making the Omaha-based district a competitive spot for Democratic presidential candidates.

Should Cavanaugh win, ads from these PACs warn, Nebraska’s GOP Gov. Jim Pillen would appoint a Republican to replace him in the state Senate — threatening what could be a crucial vote in the Electoral College.

Powell, in an interview, said President Donald Trump’s redistricting push means Nebraskans “can’t count on the old Electoral maps,” so Cavanaugh’s candidacy “opens the door to Republicans.” Crystal Rhoades, clerk of the Douglas County district court and another primary opponent, called Cavanaugh’s campaign an “unforced error.”

Cavanaugh started the primary with a lead, given his deep roots in the district and strong name recognition, Nebraska Democrats said. His father served in Congress in the 1970s, and his family resembles “the Omaha version of the Kennedy family,” said Barry Rubin, a Nebraska-based consultant who is not involved in the primary. But Powell outraised Cavanaugh and drew significant outside spending support.

“Powell had to spend her way into competition, and she’s touched a nerve with Democratic primary voters on this issue,” Rubin said. “Whether the ‘blue dot’ becomes a real issue here is pretty unlikely, but Democratic primary voters care about it now.”

Rubin added, “It’s going to be a very close, very long night.”

In an interview, Cavanaugh called the “blue dot” ads “misleading” because Republicans already control a supermajority in the state legislature, so it’s “not about having 17 Democrats, it’s about having 17 values-aligned individuals,” and “there are Republicans who also want to protect the ‘blue dot.’”

He also argued that Democrats are poised to pick up seats in the legislature, given the party’s tailwinds heading into November.

Republicans failed to change Nebraska to a winner-take-all Electoral system in 2024, after a Republican state senator joined Democrats to reject it, despite pressure from President Donald Trump and the state’s governor. That fall, Nebraska’s “blue dot” delivered Kamala Harris’ single Electoral College vote from Trump’s sweep of battleground states.

Cavanaugh’s argument isn’t hitting for some “blue dot” proponents. “The rhetoric has been of certainty, of ‘we are going to flip the seats, so we will not lose the blue dot,’ but that’s not anything anyone can promise,” said Nebraska state Sen. Megan Hunt, an Independent who left the Democratic Party in 2023 and hasn’t endorsed in the Democratic primary.

Hunt said Cavanaugh’s defense is “crossing the line into deliberate misinformation for voters,” because “voters need to have it clarified that these are hopes, these are wishes, this is not something any candidate can promise.” In a widely shared Facebook post last month, Hunt reiterated her concerns that there is “a real tradeoff” if Cavanaugh left the legislature.

But Cavanaugh said the pro-Powell outside groups are “pretending to care about this issue,” when they could spend in legislative races on behalf of Democrats. Instead, they’re using the “blue dot” to distract from their own interests, because they “are deceiving the voters of Nebraska, and we are doing everything we can to point out that that’s what’s happening.”

Cavanaugh’s supporters compared the recent outside group maneuvering, including DMFI’s ad cancellation, to the Illinois primaries in March, when AIPAC-backed super PACs shielded their spending through pop-up super PACs.

“Just like they did” in Illinois, “big donors are trying to smear Cavanaugh while hiding behind dark money,” said Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which has endorsed Cavanaugh. “If we can get the word out like we did in Illinois, it’ll fail here too.”

Cavanaugh supporters also pointed to Powell’s comments at a candidate forum, when she said she wouldn’t accept support from DMFI or AIPAC.

An unaffiliated Nebraska Democratic operative, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly, said Cavanaugh’s closing ad on alleged AIPAC money touches on “the lightning rod in Democratic primaries, and it’ll be interesting to see if that works.”

Powell called Cavanaugh’s attacks “a clear distraction from this story about the blue dot.’”

“This is just an example of distracting, creating a boogeyman where there is no boogeyman,” she continued, “because folks are really starting to pay attention and they understand the ramifications of this race.”