Democrats see signs of growing momentum in the battle for the Senate, and they’re increasingly optimistic they can expand the map into traditionally red territory ahead of November’s midterm elections.
They’re targeting states like Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas and even Mississippi, hoping to force Republicans to defend the state of the economy, the war in Iran and making a broader argument about corruption in Washington. They see a narrow path to the majority next year, a dramatic change in what once looked like a very difficult cycle for the party.
“The battle for the Senate is now a toss-up, and Democrats are on the path to victory,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement this week. “Republicans thought they had the Senate locked down. Instead, Democrats have blown the map wide open — and are poised to win the Senate majority.”
“Senate Democrats have built the strongest map we’ve had in years by competing everywhere, even in red states,” Schumer continued. “Relentless recruitment, impressive candidates and a message rooted in delivering for Americans have turned even Republican strongholds into battlegrounds and given us multiple paths to the majority.”
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Democrats need to gain a net of four seats to win a Senate majority. Their most likely path to 51 seats was initially thought to run through Maine, Ohio, Alaska and North Carolina. But now they’re seeing other ways to get there.
On Thursday, the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for both the Texas and Iowa Senate races to “toss-up” from “lean Republican.” The analyst cited the shifting political environment and the quality of candidates as reasons Democrats may win there, even though President Donald Trump won both states by more than 13 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
The biggest factors for the change? The negative economic effects of Trump’s tariffs and his war in Iran.
“I think that right now, where voters see the economy is perhaps baked in for November,” Jessica Taylor, an editor for Cook Political Report, told NOTUS. “Gas prices have been higher in a place like Iowa. Fertilizer and diesel prices have been higher. The tariffs have impacted agriculture there.”
“Ashley Hinson’s a very strong candidate for Republicans [in Iowa], but I think the inverse is true in Texas, where Republicans have a very weak candidate in Ken Paxton,” Taylor said. “So in Texas, it’s both the environment and a weak candidate, in addition to a stronger candidate in [Democrat] James Talarico.”
Taylor cautioned that Cook’s ratings may shift back in Republicans’ favor as more voters start paying attention to the candidates in the fall, and after Republicans launch an expected multi-million dollar barrage of new advertising attacking Democrats and boosting their own candidates.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has already begun flooding the airwaves. The group launched a series of TV ads this week attacking Democratic candidates in Iowa, Alaska, Maine and North Carolina, indicating they feel compelled to spend money on those states.
Right now, at least, public polls show competitive Senate races across the country. However, recent history suggests polling will tighten in the coming months. And flipping seats in ruby red states like Kansas and Mississippi will be a heavy lift.
“In the last few election cycles, we’ve seen a pattern of Democrats looking competitive in red state Senate contests during the summer only to fade by election day,” Patrick Ruffini, a pollster at Echelon Insights, said in an analysis of more than 3,000 polls of Senate races over the past four cycles.
This cycle could be different. Republicans have struggled to defend high gas prices amid the ongoing war in Iran. They’ve framed the spike as a temporary necessity while Trump attempts to secure peace in the Middle East, six months after launching strikes against Iran. Some have even asked voters to stomach the higher costs out of a sense of patriotism and skip a trip to Starbucks, as Minnesota Republican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya suggested earlier this year.
Trump’s cratering approval numbers aren’t helping his party. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll marked his lowest rating at just 33 percent, and there are signs his political power is waning as more Republican voters shrug off his preferred candidates in primaries this year.
But Democrats have big challenges to overcome, too.
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades. With Republican voters far outnumbering Democrats there, Talarico will need cross-party support to win. He’s already begun trying to appeal to those voters by hiring a Republican staffer from Sen. John Cornyn’s office for a senior position in his campaign.
The Democratic nominee for Michigan’s open seat, progressive Abdul El-Sayed, faces concerns from some in the party that he could underperform and give Republican Rep. Mike Rogers a chance of winning what is considered a safe Democratic seat. A poll released Thursday by AARP found El-Sayed and Rogers statistically tied, 48-47, while other surveys have found Rogers in the lead.
Democrats’ odds of ousting five-term incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine may also be difficult, especially following a late-summer candidate switch from scandal-plagued former Democratic nominee Graham Platner to lesser-known former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson.
Republicans, meanwhile, are pointing to the rise of democratic socialists in high-profile races across the country, including most recently Angie Nixon’s win in Florida’s Senate Democratic primary, as evidence that the Democratic Party is too extreme. They’re seeking to tie other Democrats to the democratic socialist brand.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, for example, on Tuesday criticized Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is seeking reelection in Georgia, for endorsing what they called “fellow socialist” El-Sayed in Michigan. The committee said: “Will Ossoff back Nixon too and stand by her socialist platform?”
Another problem for Democrats is that their party faces brand issues, making the fight for control of the Senate a jump ball.
“I think voters are going to be choosing in some ways between the lesser of two evils,” Cook Political Report’s Taylor said. “The Senate is a toss-up, but one where Republicans may still have a slight advantage.”
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