Mike Rogers lost his Senate race in 2024 by fewer than 20,000 votes. Now, the Republican is ramping up efforts to pick off portions of historically Democratic coalitions in Michigan — including Jewish voters who draw a hard line on support for Israel.
The dynamics reflect a pressure point for progressive Democrats, who have had to tread carefully while speaking out against Israel as the party contends with growing divisions in a competitive midterm cycle. The Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, is one of the candidates most vocally critical of Israel running a statewide race this year, and battleground Michigan — which has some of the country’s largest Arab and Muslim populations — is a prime test for whether historically liberal communities will break from Democrats over the foreign policy debate.
This week, Rogers has ramped up his efforts to hone in on that corner of the electorate, including dropping a new ad on Tuesday centering a voter wearing a Star of David necklace who described herself as a “pissed off Democrat.” Furthermore, an open letter from Jewish Democrats started circulating Wednesday, in which signatories ask Jewish Democrats and independents to back Rogers over El-Sayed, who the Republican has called “beyond antisemitic” in the past.
But some experts, including Jewish political leaders in Michigan, say Rogers has a low chance of meaningfully peeling off support from the long-standing Democratic bloc.
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“That letter does not reflect our caucus at all,” Decky Alexander, chair of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus, told NOTUS. “We are not in the business of putting forth any kind of movement or initiative that would undermine the current slate of Democratic candidates.”
“I don’t know if it’s dangerous, but I find it shortsighted,” Alexander added. “I don’t want people to think that it’s reflecting this broad scope of the Jewish community because I don’t believe it does.”
El-Sayed and other statewide candidates are set to speak at a late August event hosted by the caucus, which is an official branch of the state Democratic Party and backed Rep. Haley Stevens in the primary. Alexander says the group is waiting to throw its support behind El-Sayed, and would not do any further endorsements until after the Aug. 30 gathering.
If elected, El-Sayed says he would support an immediate arms embargo and oppose distributing “direct blank-check funding” to foreign militaries, including Israel. The candidate, who is the most prominent Muslim running statewide this year, has also gone out of his way to specifically condemn antisemitism.
“I want you to know that my commitment to your safety — my commitment to Jewish safety — is the same commitment that I have to the safety of my own daughters,” he told prospective voters the day after winning his primary.
This week’s open letter, first reported by Jewish Insider, describes Rogers as “a friend to the Jewish community” and asks voters to separate the Republican nominee from President Donald Trump.
“All of us have felt threatened and alienated by the politics and allies embraced by Abdul El-Sayed,” the letter, led by Detroit businessman Eric Bronstein, reads. “We cannot allow him to become the Democratic standard-bearer or Michigan’s senator.”
Bronstein did not respond to a request for comment. The group has not publicly released the full letter, and told Jewish Insider it plans to publish the letter online once it has gained “a significant initial group of signers.”
Rogers’ campaign has tried to capitalize on the divide in the meantime by courting Jewish voters, who nationally tend to support Democrats in large margins. He has featured Jewish faith leaders and members of the community on campaign stops.
“We’re grateful for the support from Jewish Democrats who’ve been ringing our phones off the hook asking what they can do and how they can get involved,” the Rogers campaign’s communications director, Alyssa Brouillet, told NOTUS.
Republicans are similarly trying to court the Jewish vote in other states like Georgia, where Rep. Mike Collins has tried to capitalize on Sen. Jon Ossoff’s criticism of the Israeli government — despite Ossoff’s moderate political views and his status as the state’s first Jewish senator. But El-Sayed’s campaign highlights how, particularly over the last three years, progressive Democrats have had to maneuver condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza while facing backlash from critics who say their comments are antisemitic.
Other left-leaning politicians like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who is also Muslim, have tried to tailor their messages to somewhat weather the storm of criticism — though El-Sayed is still addressing the fallout from his past comments on Israel-U.S. policy.
When asked by CNN in July if Israel has the right to exist, El-Sayed pushed back on the question, calling it a “gotcha game.”
“I think the question we all ought to ask is does everybody have equal rights to peace, dignity and self-determination? That’s Jewish Israelis and Palestinians,” he said later in the interview.
Midwest political strategist Adrian Hemond said one of El-Sayed’s top priorities ahead of the general election should be “giving a nonslippery answer” when asked sweeping questions about Israel’s right to exist.
“He’s never given a direct answer to that question, and I think that concerns about his views will persist until he does,” Hemond told NOTUS, adding that he doesn’t think El-Sayed appears to have made a meaningful effort to engage with Jewish communities in the state.
El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Roxie Richner told NOTUS that the candidate remains in “regular dialogue” with local Jewish leaders in hopes of building the “broadest possible coalition.”
Alexander says she has been in contact with El-Sayed through her work with the caucus, which has been “inundated” with voters’ requests for conversations with the nominee. But she still thinks the Democrat needs to adjust his rhetoric and increase outreach with Jewish voters if he hopes to win in November — especially since he is “a better messenger for his own ideas than I am.”
“There is a lot of profound — and still is — anti-Israel and anti-Jewish rhetoric coming out of that campaign, and it has to be addressed more directly,” Alexander said. “It has to be addressed, otherwise people will continue to write more letters like that.”
In contrast to El-Sayed, Rogers has billed himself as a pro-Israel candidate, saying Israel has “every right to defend their nation” from threats. While the American Israel Public Affairs Committee spent a record-breaking amount to prop up Stevens during the Democratic primary, the group could mount another large spending campaign to support Rogers before November, The New York Times reported earlier this month.
There is limited polling on the views of Michigan’s Jewish voters, who comprise roughly 1.4% of the state’s electorate. A national Associated Press survey found that few Jewish adults see either party as highly supportive of their communities, and respondents were divided on whether criticism of Israel counts as antisemitic. Another poll of 500 Michigan Democrats, released three weeks before the primary, found that voters did not place a high level of importance on candidates’ positions on Israel and Gaza when making their choice. Almost half had an unfavorable view of AIPAC.
Alexander and Theresa Reid, chair of the Washtenaw County Democratic Party — the county with one of the largest Jewish populations in the state — stressed that the issue is not monolithic and there is a significant diversity in thought among Jewish voters.
“I can tell you definitively that there is not one stance on this issue; the strategy conversation is very active,” Reid wrote in an email to NOTUS.
The Washtenaw County GOP’s chair, Jason Rogers, described the letter as “correct and necessary” and says he has spoken to a few Jewish Democrats that are planning to support Rogers.
“The Democratic Party has left the Jewish community behind. As Republicans we would welcome them into the real big-tent party,” Rogers wrote in an email. “Above all, allegiance to our Constitutional Republic comes first.”
In a swing state like Michigan, the power of a few thousand votes cannot be overlooked. Sen. Elissa Slotkin, a Jewish Democrat who positions herself as a moderate critic of Israel, bested Rogers in the 2024 senate race by less than a half a percentage point.
With 75 days until the general election, Alexander says the push to break Jewish voters away from El-Sayed doesn’t currently have real traction. While the Democratic candidate has some work to do, she said liberal voters know the stakes are high if they hope to break up Republicans’ control of the Senate.
“He’s got to do some convincing — but also, you know, the state of the world might just do that convincing as well,” Alexander said.
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