Will Trump’s AI Agenda Backfire?

As President Donald Trump pushes for less regulation of artificial intelligence, some Republicans are worried about what that could mean for the midterms and beyond.

Trump signed an executive order last week aimed at curbing state-level AI regulation, arguing that states would go too far at a time when the AI industry must be supported for the United States to stay competitive in the sector. There’s been fallout among Republicans: Some think it’s a losing issue, while others think states’ hands shouldn’t be tied.

“I think the Democrats are going to score some wins off of AI backlash. And I think more Republicans are going to try to find their voice on the issue,” Brad Littlejohn, a policy adviser at American Compass, a right-wing think tank, told NOTUS.

Trump’s executive order calls on Congress to “ensure that there is a minimally burdensome national standard.” Congress is still expected to act, but that could result in fraught negotiations.

A December memo addressed to Republican congressional leaders by GOP strategist Chapin Fay, which was obtained by NOTUS, warned that banning AI regulation might be a risky move ahead of the midterms.

“Republicans cannot afford unforced errors such as alienating voters on AI policy or tying ourselves to a historically unpopular tech industry,” the memo reads. “Federal preemption of the states on [AI] regulation is a politically fraught issue, and GOP policymakers should hold their powder.”

“Republican lawmakers and candidates should signal to voters in this case, particularly young voters, that we share their values and do not side with Big Tech,” Fay, who did not respond to a request for comment, wrote.

Rep. Mike Kennedy, a Utah Republican, told NOTUS he doesn’t know how “disturbed the average public is” with this issue, but he thinks that states could actually teach the federal government about how to regulate AI.

“I see the potency of states in their ability to regulate the more nuanced fashion,” Kennedy said. “And yes, they can make mistakes, but they could also show the federal government good policy that actually empowers AI but also regulates in a healthy fashion.”

Data has found that Trump voters may be opposed to such a tech-friendly agenda. Polling of people who voted in last year’s presidential election by the right-leaning Institute for Family Studies and YouGov found that more than 40% of Trump voters oppose blocking states from regulating AI.

Michael Toscano, a senior fellow at the institute, told NOTUS on Thursday that multiple polls this year on Congress blocking states from regulating AI paint a clear picture: “Trump voters, by a wide margin, are opposed to it.”

“It’s not gonna look good to have the president handcuffing states from regulating these Big Tech companies out of San Francisco or the Bay Area,” Toscano said. “The tensions that this maneuver is kicking up are extremely intense. And I don’t think it’s going to be good for the Republican Party.”

Polling from the Pew Research Center from this summer also found that Republican voters are as concerned about the daily use of AI as Democratic voters are, and some Republican state legislators say they feel the need to respond.

Florida is an example. The state Legislature has passed laws requiring disclaimers on political ads that use AI and creating penalties for AI child pornography. It is also considering moving forward with an “AI bill of rights” that would create additional protections for residents of the state.

“There is growing pressure on state legislatures to step in,” state Rep. Dana Trabulsy, a Republican, told NOTUS in a text. “The reality is that innovation doesn’t pause, and neither do the risks. States are closest to the ground, closest to the schools, the businesses, the public sector systems that are already grappling with AI every single day. So the responsibility naturally shifts to us.”

“The pressure is real. Not because states want to compete with Washington, but because doing nothing shouldn’t be an option,” Trabulsy added.

Rep. Byron Donalds, a congressional Republican from Florida, told NOTUS he did not think voters would cast ballots against Republicans over the issue of state-level AI regulation but said he would like to see more action from states.

“I am not supportive of a blanket moratorium from the federal level in the U.S. I think there are privacy and safety concerns that should be addressed, and I think that states are uniquely positioned to do that,” Donalds said.

Other House Republicans also told NOTUS they don’t agree with the idea that Trump’s executive order will translate into losses for their party next year. But they say they welcome the input of states at a time when Congress has failed to establish any guardrails for the AI industry.

“I don’t really care about the politics.” Rep. Clay Higgins told NOTUS. “I think the sovereign states are an appropriate sort of petri dish for what AI might be. They are a good place for that mix to see, which may develop in the space where AI intersects our life.”

There’s also more appetite among Republicans for limiting the influence of Big Tech.

“We pay too much deference to the tech world and social media firms on letting them run rampant,” Rep. Blake Moore, a Utah Republican, told NOTUS. “We’re seeing social movements out there from parents who don’t want their kids having phones at that school and stuff like that. Why? That’s because they’re damaging to their overall development.”

“We need to be making sure we’re doing the right thing for the next generation,” he added.

Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican from New York whose state is pursuing legislation to regulate AI, said he’s “not focused” on how this issue might sway voters.

“To me it’s about the actual policy,” Lawler said. “I think we need a federal regulatory framework, but I’m not adamantly opposed to states having a say.”