The Commanders open a third season under coach Dan Quinn on Sunday with an afternoon matchup against the Eagles.
After a dream campaign in 2024, last year did not go to plan for Washington and the team finished 5-12. Projections for this year are wide-ranging, with a few analysts hopeful for the Commanders but many expecting a long season.
What They’re Saying
The Ringer’s Bill Simmons said on a recent podcast that the Commanders are a “lock” to finish under the 7.5 wins FanDuel has projected for the team.
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“They lost [Laremy] Tunsil for the season and I didn’t like their offensive line to begin with,” Simmons said. “If you’re reading the day-to-day reports, really rough stuff with the offensive line. Which, normally not everybody has a good offensive line — but their quarterback is 127 pounds. So the skinny quarterback who got hurt last year combined with nobody who can block? I’m out.”
ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky named the Commanders the league’s most confusing team in an interview with Dan Patrick on Friday. Orlovsky cited the Commanders’ busy offseason and 31-year-old David Blough as a first-time offensive coordinator among his concerns with the organization.
“What’s the offensive actually going to be?” Orlovsky said. “You lose your left tackle who you just made the highest-paid left tackle in football and all your fans are like, ‘We’ll be OK.’ Those two things can’t happen at the same time. … It’s an unbelievably expensive defense but a little bit unproven. …”
“And so it could go really good if they gel and those high-end-paid players play at such a high level and the free agent signings and the draft picks play at such a high level. Or it could be a season of question, of, ‘OK where is this organization headed,’ and a second year of maybe some up and down from Jayden Daniels. I’m bullish on them, but I’m just not all in.”
Power Rankings
Yahoo! Sports has the Commanders in its “work to do” category, citing player development and injury luck as two factors that could define the season.
Similarly, CBS Sports ranked the team in the C tier of its power rankings, which is for teams that could make the playoffs if everything goes right.
ESPN has the Commanders 20th in its power rankings, one spot lower than where the network ranked the team after last spring’s draft.
The Athletic recently ranked the Commanders 13th of the 16 teams in its NFC power ranking and put Washington 23rd in its league ranking before training camp. The NFC ranking was conducted with multiple team executives weighing in. One executive told The Athletic that a healthy Daniels is enough to make up for the numerous question marks surrounding the team.
“They get Jayden back, and Terry McLaurin will be healthy,” the executive told The Athletic. “They’ve added some really good parts defensively in free agency. They have to get the offensive line solidified.”
Another executive was much less optimistic.
“I think they are going to be bad,” they said. “The quarterback is talented, but his style of play, unless he changes it, is a concern. The weapons around him are OK, but I don’t think it’s a dynamic team offensively. Defensively, they plateaued.”
Long odds
The sportsbooks have a similar take, giving Washington long odds to make a real impact this season. On Monday at FanDuel, the Commanders were (+265) to make the playoffs, (+550) to win the division and (+6500) to win the Super Bowl. The odds at DraftKings are similar. Essentially, the books think the Commanders have less than a 30% chance to make the playoffs.
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