Today’s notice: Barreling toward a shutdown. Eric Adams swaggers off stage. Why Portland? More Democrats try their hand at podcasting. And: The zombie FEC.
THE LATEST
Shutdown chaos. The announcement this weekend that Donald Trump changed his mind again and agreed to meet with Democratic congressional leaders at the White House today has the potential to change the narrative on a government shutdown — but will it?
The only real question: “Are they serious about negotiating with us in a real way?” Chuck Schumer asked Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press.
The Democratic position: They are insisting on health care-related concessions in exchange for their votes. This is what the Democrats’ base has demanded, and they are sticking with it.
The Republican position: Pass the continuing resolution, and then we’ll talk. “Release the hostage,” John Thune said in another interview on Meet The Press.
“The [ACA subsidies Democrats are calling to extend] don’t expire until the end of December, so we have time to have all those discussions and debates,” Mike Johnson said on CNN’s State of the Union.
What a White House negotiation needs to accomplish: Partisan unity has basically denied the usual cross-aisle pathways out of a shutdown so far, NOTUS’ Hill team reports. Only one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman, voted for the House-passed CR. (Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul voted against it, too.) In the House, one Democrat, Rep. Jared Golden, voted for the CR written by Republicans.
These lines in both chambers would have to move substantially and create at least some bipartisan support. No one can see how that’s possible right now.
Trump targets Portland: Gov. Tina Kotek told reporters yesterday that the White House was using the same authority Trump used to deploy National Guard troops to Los Angeles to federalize Oregon troops and send them to Portland.
The state has already filed a lawsuit. A federal judge strongly condemned the White House’s rationale for the Los Angeles deployment, and Oregon AG Dan Rayfield said he hoped another federal judge would do the same in Portland. “The goal is, within the next 24 hours, to be filing a temporary restraining order in our courts to stop this from occurring before it starts,” he told NOTUS on the press call with Kotek.
What comes next is uncertainty – and fear. “I am no longer in charge of the members that he will be calling up,” Kotek told NOTUS. “We don’t have details to share. It’s unclear what the mission is. And when you don’t have a clear mission, you don’t know when that mission will end.” Kotek told reporters she spoke to Trump Saturday but was clearly unable to change his mind that this deployment is needed to protect ICE agents.
Where is Trump’s apocalyptic vision coming from? Multiple officials at both the state and local levels shared their theory over the weekend: The president has been seeing a resurgence of out-of-context video clips posted to social media from Portland’s Black Lives Matter protest movement from 2020 to 2021.
“I have been nice and clear about what the situation is,” Kotek said. “Here’s the deal. We cannot be looking at footage from 2020 and assume that that is the case today in Portland.”
Mayor Keith Wilson and Kotek urged Portland protesters not to give Trump any justification for this. “This is a surreal moment that is being manufactured as if it’s a made-for-TV event, and the administration is trying to really trip us up,” Wilson said.
Open Tabs: At least 5 dead, 8 injured after shooting at Michigan church (Detroit Free Press); Trump to attend gathering of top generals (WaPo); China weaponizes ag imports to target Trump and US farmers (Politico)
From the Hill
First on NOTUS: An outside nonprofit tied to the Blue Dog Coalition of Democrats is launching a bi-weekly podcast, NOTUS’ Reese Gorman first reported. The first three episodes are a conversation between Reps. Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Dog co-chairs (co-dogs?). The first episode is called “What It Really Means To Represent Home.”
Some Epstein files were released Friday by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee. NOTUS’ Oriana González and Daniella Diaz report the biggest revelation was a notation in Epstein’s calendar from Dec. 6, 2014: “Reminder: Elon Musk to island Dec. 6 (is this still happening?)”
In 2019, Musk said Jeffrey Epstein “tried repeatedly to get me to visit his island. I declined.”
What’s next: Rep. Thomas Massie said incoming Democratic Rep. Adelita Grijalva plans to sign his discharge petition to compel the DOJ to release all of Epstein documents.
From New York
Eric Adams out. The final #swagger, from NOTUS partner The City’s writeup: “In a video released to social media, Adams descends the stairs at Gracie Mansion holding a large photo of his mother, with Frank Sinatra’s ‘My Way’ playing in the background.”
“I know I cannot continue my campaign,” Adams said, while refusing to endorse any of the other candidates running.
The energy test: Blue-state governors are feeling pressure from Trump’s crackdown on clean energy. Signs indicate they are bending toward Trump, NOTUS’ Shifra Dayak reports. A big first test: Gov. Kathy Hochul is sounding more open to a natural gas pipeline New York previously rejected after Trump opposed a wind project there.
“It’s the same pipeline, the same risks to water quality that the state found were unacceptable last time around,” Alex Beauchamp of Food & Water Watch told Shifra. “Really, the only difference is that Trump is in the White House and wants to build a pipeline.”
From the campaign trail
First on NOTUS: New Hampshire prebuttal. Former Sen. John Sununu has not officially announced a new bid for his old job, but Democrats are already running against him. StopSununu.com launches today, the centerpiece of NH Dems new digital and surrogate push. The plan is to highlight his private-sector work since leaving the Senate in 2009.
NEW ON NOTUS
Elections, Commission-less. The FEC is down to two members (it needs four to execute its high-level duties), and last week it canceled all public meetings until 2026. “Other people report that we’re hobbled, and I hate to agree with it, but we are hobbled,” FEC Chair Shana Broussard told NOTUS’ Taylor Giorno.
More: Lawmakers Are Debating Making FEMA a Cabinet-Level Agency, by Torrence Banks
Republican Senator Says Trump’s H-1B Visa Fee Could Hit Rural Hospitals, by Haley Byrd Wilt
NOT US
- Noem Fast-Tracked Millions in Disaster Aid to Florida Tourist Attraction After Campaign Donor Intervened, by Joshua Kaplan, Justin Elliott and Alex Mierjeski for ProPublica
- Schumer’s private war room on government shutdown, by Stephen Neukam and Holly Otterbein for Axios
- Where Mideast Envoy Pitched Peace, His Son Pitched Investors, by Debra Kamin and Bradley Hope for The New York Times
WEEK AHEAD
Today: Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House.
Tuesday: Top military leaders from around the world who were suddenly called back to the U.S. are expected to find out why.
Wednesday: The deadline to avert a government shutdown. Plus, a host of tariffs on furniture, trucks and brand-name drugs are set to kick in.
This week: At some point a federal law enforcement surge into Memphis is expected to begin.
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