Trump Riding High: Donald Trump is scheduled to land in Europe today for the NATO Summit, hours after announcing on Truth Social a planned ceasefire between Israel and Iran. “He’s just happy he was able to get it done,” an administration official told NOTUS. “He feels like this is the most logical conclusion.”
The White House’s timeline: Things moved so quickly Monday that Trump’s 6:02 p.m. ceasefire post caught some White House aides by surprise. Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu after Iran’s retaliatory strikes at a U.S. base in Qatar. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff went to the Iranians through direct and indirect channels. The Qataris acted as intermediaries, the Trump official said.
Lost in truth translation? The Iranians responded to Trump’s Truth Social post seemingly saying that any formal and final ceasefire decisions would come later, but if Israel held its fire so would Iran.
As for the politics of war, the White House was reading and sharing this NBC News story about MAGA influencers uniformly backing Trump well before the ceasefire was announced. The prospect of a ceasefire did calm some tensions, though. Rep. Thomas Massie told reporters he would hold off on his war powers resolution if the ceasefire holds.
How the political strategists see this: “I think the anti-war strand is a much weaker part of that nationalism movement than for, say, economic populism or immigration,” a Democratic strategist tells NOTUS’ Alex Roarty.
“I don’t think this action is out of line with anything he did in his first administration,” GOP strategist Alex Stroman said, referring to the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani.
NOTUS scoop: In fact, the blowback may come for those who criticized Trump. Massie should not expect the usual incumbent help from House Republicans should he draw a primary challenger, a GOP source familiar with the situation told Alex. “The president has made it clear he wants Massie out and I think you’ll see the ecosystem react accordingly,” the source said.
Open Tabs: Israeli warning call to top Iranian general (WaPo); Over 500 arrested in Iran (Al-Monitor); U.S. crude oil falls more than 7% (CNBC); Supreme Court clears path for deportations to third-party countries (NOTUS)
From the Hill
Senate Republican leaders still really want to vote on their version of the reconciliation bill this week. But for that to happen, there is a lot lawmakers need to work out within the next 72 hours. NOTUS’ Ursula Perano reports that there’s no deal on Medicaid provisions or on SALT, and Sen. Rand Paul is still saying he won’t vote for a bill that increases the debt limit. Bring on Thursday!
In the House, Rep. Robert Garcia won a key endorsement Monday night from roughly 60 of the most senior and powerful House Democrats on the Steering and Policy Committee to be the top Democrat on Oversight. But the other candidates — Reps. Jasmine Crockett, Stephen Lynch and Kweisi Mfume — don’t see the race as over, NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson reports.
THE BIG ONE
Is Congress out of the war advising business? The buried lede on nearly every major military entanglement for decades now is that the legislative branch is essentially out of the loop. There’s little pushback on that on Capitol Hill.
“There’s always a tension between Congress’s power to declare war and the president’s power as commander in chief, but I think the White House contacted as many people as it could,” Sen. John Kennedy told NOTUS’ Haley Byrd Wilt.
“Since we’re not doing ground troops,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis said, “I think he’s still OK.”
Even Democrats gave some wiggle room. “The Constitution requires the president to come to Congress, inform us and seek approval, which he has not done,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal said, blaming an expanding presidency.
- That all said: “It’s also the nature of modern warfare. Because it’s literally minutes, maybe even seconds, or hours. Not even days, the way war used to happen,” he said.
Even more buried lede: the caller ID problem? On Monday, Karoline Leavitt told Fox News the White House did try to call House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, but “he didn’t pick up the phone.”
Jeffries didn’t confirm or deny that, but he told reporters “a courtesy call” is not enough. “It’s not clear to me what the administration is hiding from Congress and the American people,” he told reporters at a press conference.
NEW ON NOTUS
Primary Day: Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani are in a tight race at the top of New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary. The City, NOTUS’ partner in New York, has a clear look at where the race stands: “Cuomo has broad name recognition and a billionaire-backed super PAC spending millions on his behalf, while Mamdani is a Democratic Socialist with a small army of volunteer canvassers, an infectious social media presence and assists from other left-aligned candidates putting their public matching funds into ads attacking the former governor.”
(Just don’t expect full results for about a week.)
Medicaid messaging test: GOP gubernatorial nominees Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia are having to answer for the Medicaid cuts in reconciliation.
- Ciattarelli has largely deferred to Trump on the bill, NOTUS’ Shifra Dayak reports. Earle-Sears has dismissed questions about the cuts as hypotheticals.
- Exclusive polling on this: 58% of registered voters in North Carolina said “they would be less likely to vote to re-elect their senator if they voted to cut $700 billion from Medicaid to pay for extending tax cuts,” according to a poll commissioned by Inseparable Action, a mental health advocacy group that’s against the bill.
Abortion politics: It’s the third anniversary of Dobbs, and Democrats are pushing some new polling. NOTUS’ Oriana González obtained a House Majority PAC memo highlighting that 59% of American voters say abortion should be legal in most cases, while just 37% say it should not.
More: Will an Artificial Intelligence Provision Sink Republicans’ Reconciliation Bill?; Most Republicans Say the Border Wall is Worth the Cost. Rand Paul Isn’t so Sure.
NOT US
- The MTV Reality Star in Trump’s Cabinet Who Wants You to Have More Kids, by Caroline Kitchener for The New York Times
- What the Texas food label law means for the rest of America, by Rachel Roubein for The Washington Post
- Lawmakers Seek to Close VA Loophole That Funnels Billions to Private Medicare Insurers, by Mark Maremont for The Wall Street Journal
BE SOCIAL
DC weather boldly daring to ask “have you ever wanted to experience the life cycle of a steamed dumpling while wearing business casual”
— Alice (@AliceinDCland) June 23, 2025
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