Today’s notice: One Republican senator hopes it’s not “Libation Day.” A powerful trade association called it “complicated.” The Trump administration says it’s going to work, no matter what the numbers say. Plus: the fossil fuel industry and DOGE.
It’s a Numbers Game
There is a great deal no one knows about what Donald Trump’s new tariff plan will do for (or to!) the economy. But one thing we can be sure of: Trump administration officials are publicly building a new way to measure the country’s economic health so the dial always points to “going great.”
Howard Lutnick has proposed changing the way GDP is measured. Karoline Leavitt told NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright at a briefing the other day that “the market is a snapshot in time” and “just like they were in his first term, Wall Street will be just fine.” (Using new math is also hot on Capitol Hill these days, but more on that below.)
The approach is kind of reverse Oz: only pay attention to the man behind the curtain. All the other stuff in front of your face doesn’t matter. Economist and politics-of-the-economy veteran Jared Bernstein has been writing a lot about these moves on his Substack. Unsurprisingly, as a former top Biden official, he has not been kind. But in a conversation with NOTUS on Wednesday, he talked about how objectively hard it is to spin an economy, no matter what kind of numerical tricks one tries. Remember, Joe Biden tried.
“So my experience of many years is that if bad things are happening in the economy, people know about it, and especially these days, they’re very loud about it,” Bernstein said. Trump is “pretty masterful at creating a different reality,” he said. But that doesn’t help “if your actions raise prices, which is what tariffs will do.”
Not to mention that Trump’s opponents seem ready to campaign on this rule change.
“I think it’s really interesting that now we’re in a spot, as he’s implementing policy that’s rattling markets … that now we should be looking at different metrics to decide whether or not these policies are successful or not,” Erick Russell, Connecticut’s state treasurer, told reporters hours before the president’s “Liberation Day” festivities.
—Evan McMorris-Santoro and Violet Jira
One Tough Sell
The White House cannot control all the tariff messaging, especially when there’s a coequal branch of government with at least some skeptical Republicans. NOTUS’ Reese Gorman scooped a pressure campaign from the Department of Homeland Security urging senators to not to vote for the bill from Sens. Tim Kaine and Rand Paul that would strip Trump’s power to impose tariffs on Canada. The effort did not stop four Republicans — Paul, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell — from voting with Democrats in favor of the bill, which passed (though it will almost certainly not pass the House).
Quotable (Only if Their Beer of Choice Is an Import)
There was a lot more praise of Trump than dissent from Republicans. Like Sen. Mike Rounds, who joked with NOTUS’ Haley Byrd Wilt that he hoped Trump’s “Liberation Day” wouldn’t turn into “Libation Day.”
“I hope people, when they hear about it, they go, ‘OK, this is OK,’ rather than going and feeling they have to drown their sorrows,” Rounds said.
Read more on Congress’ response to the tariff announcement.
Front Page
- The White House Is Noncommittal on How Much Longer Elon Musk Will Stick Around: As a “special government employee,” Musk can only formally stay on for 130 days.
- Lawmakers Don’t Know Why ICE Is Detaining Some of Its Highest-Profile Targets in Louisiana: Several students and researchers have wound up in Louisiana immigrant detention centers despite being arrested in other states.
- Republicans Don’t Have a Cohesive Message on Measles — Except That They Support RFK Jr.: “If your question is, do I think the administration is doing a good job with it? Yeah, they are,” said Sen. Josh Hawley.
Reconciliation Math
Congress is also in its New Math Era, with Senate Republicans committed to calculating the fiscal impact of coming tax cuts off “current policy baseline” to zero-out the otherwise $4 trillion cost on paper. Last month, Rep. Chip Roy told Politico that the current policy baseline strategy was essentially sprinkling “fairy dust” on Republicans’ deficit problem. But congressional leadership is unfazed by that. Speaker Mike Johnson, who has some real slim-majority math to deal with, said “we’re fully supportive.” And GOP senators are on board, NOTUS’ Ursula Perano reports.
That leaves a lot of open questions for the future of reconciliation, said Chuck Marr, vice president of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “I think for the future, one would be concerned that it’s a breakdown in the rules, and that now, from now on, they could just kind of make things up, right? So I think that’s a problem,” he said.
—Violet Jira
Elon Job Security Update
The White House on Wednesday rebuffed reporting that some Trump allies were weary of Elon Musk’s presence in the West Wing and ready to bid him adieu. A White House official was noncommittal about when Musk would depart, but told NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright and Reese Gorman that at an “appropriate time there will be a mutual understanding,” adding that the president appreciates Musk’s work. Republican senators told NOTUS they aren’t counting down the days to Musk’s exit, either: “I want to keep him for as long as we can,” said Sen. John Kennedy. Musk’s official time in government was always going to be limited; as a special government employee, he maxes out at 130 days, or at the end of May.
Drill Babies vs. DOGE
Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda is running up against his administration’s push to slash the federal workforce, NOTUS’ Anna Kramer reports. Job cuts, hiring freezes and other DOGE actions at the agencies the oil and gas industry relies on “could actually make it harder for [Trump’s] promised new energy production to take place.” Sources told Anna that industry concerns about this have “reached the highest levels” of the Interior Department, the EPA and the White House. She hears that execs who were excited to fulfill a new fossil fuel production mandate “are not nearly as happy as they were when Trump won the election.”
All Quiet on the Tariff Front?
The same trade associations that once fiercely fought against tariffs — like when the late Chamber of Commerce CEO Thomas J. Donohue said in 2016 that Trump would be “impeached” if he imposed 45% tariffs on China — were notably muted in their responses Wednesday night. “Punches were clearly pulled” in the initial statements after the tariff announcement, NOTUS’ Taylor Giorno writes. Which is not to say the groups were supportive. “Needless to say, today’s announcement was complicated, and manufacturers are scrambling to determine the exact implications for their operations,” the National Association of Manufacturers wrote. “The stakes for manufacturers could not be higher.” Just very, very tempered.
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.
- Emails Confirm Social Security Administration Canceled Maine Contracts As Political Payback by Arthur Delaney at HuffPost
- Why one industry is cautiously excited about Trump’s tariffs by Brendan Bordelon and Gabby Miller at Politico
- Local Governments Vie for Fired Federal Workers by Patrick Sisson at Bloomberg CityLab
Be Social: We Didn’t Have This on Our Bingo Board
One photo of: two big brains, a few smidgens of ideological crossover apparently, 13 or so total shirts.
So this just happened. https://t.co/HehDwuRUt5 pic.twitter.com/cj8xIZ7n3d
— Nancy Scola (@nancyscola) April 2, 2025
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