Today’s notice: Do not look at your 401(k). Pride and D.C. DOGE and Virginia. Shutdown tests. We repeat, do not look at your 401(k).
Tolerating Uncertainty
The stock market can tank and rise on just about any day, but this week it happened as some CEOs from the Business Roundtable were landing in D.C. to talk about the business climate at their previously scheduled quarterly meetings.
A week from now, the big index sell-off could be completely memory-holed, with values returning to where they were or even higher. We have seen this before, which is why it’s challenging to write about the stock market in a political newsletter. We were told on Monday some of these CEOs were looking for meetings with congressional leaders and the White House. Also not strange, but again: timing.
So we asked a connected lobbyist who works with multinational corporations, and has years of experience in high-level GOP politics before that, if this is a market moment that could actually have political impact. They put it this way: Among people in D.C. that businesses pay to get info on what’s going on, “the concern is they don’t know what to tell their bosses is going to change in a positive way.”
“If you can’t say with any degree of certainty where this is all heading, that’s a problem,” the lobbyist said.
Even this doesn’t guarantee a lasting political issue, though. Donald Trump has shifted around on his tariffs strategy so much that a little more shifting to calm the markets wouldn’t surprise anyone. “It’s easy to pivot when you don’t have a plan,” the lobbyist joked.
Business does not like uncertainty. We have reached the moment where the uncertainty acceptance level has been breached.
Trump was quite successful in leveraging the economic uncertainty that bit Joe Biden in 2024, after Biden had used it against Trump in 2020. And the economy continues to be a top priority for voters, both in public polling and, we’re told, private numbers Democrats watch. What voters want is action on prices, all the time.
One Biden veteran recalled that “people thought we weren’t working on this every time we discussed another issue,” even though they were working on the economy. The veteran pointed to a video released by a top White House aide Monday afternoon while the market slid further and further into the red. It was about new portraits in the Oval Office.
Some Republican lawmakers said they hadn’t even seen the news of Monday’s market downturn. “I haven’t had a chance to look at it,” Rep. Mike Haridopolos told NOTUS. Rep. Dan Newhouse said he’d seen a headline about the market slump but didn’t read the article.
Others said the slump was merely a sign that the government was actually enacting reforms.
“You gonna fix a busted pipe, you gotta turn off the water at the pump,” Rep. Clay Higgins said.
—Evan McMorris-Santoro and Mark Alfred (with an assist from Taylor Giorno)
D.C. and Its Uninvited Guest
D.C. voters did not want a second Trump term. Like really, really did not — remember Nikki Haley’s margin in the primary? Now the city is trying to get on with itself while the president takes on many of the things it holds dear, like employed federal workers and, as NOTUS’ Oriana González and Torrence Banks report, its standing as an epicenter of Pride in the U.S.
Trump’s anti-DEI push could make that gig much harder for the city, they write. Previously simple things, like using space in the city for WorldPride celebrations, may get bound up in conversations about what sorts of events are now allowed in places like national parks, one WorldPride organizer told them. The Smithsonian, about as D.C. as it gets, may be less welcoming to celebrants, too. Oriana and Torrence spoke to a source familiar with the Institution’s programming who said it’s “de-emphasizing” promotional material for transgender collections. It’s all part of an effort to have “a broader conversation about the new political landscape,” they write.
Front Page
- How Lori Chavez-DeRemer Won Back Wary Democrats for Her Confirmation as Labor Secretary: Chavez-DeRemer looked like she was headed toward overwhelming confirmation. Then she wasn’t.
- DOGE Is Shutting Down the Regional Offices That Oversee Almost All Offshore Drilling: The two offices handle the government response to oil spills and drilling incidents in the Pacific and Gulf regions.
- Senate Rules Could Stand in the Way of Republicans’ Permanent Tax Cuts: Republicans are trying to find ways to get past the Byrd rule.
- Virginia Officials Are Bracing For an Exodus As Federal Employees Lose Their Jobs: “It is going to have sweeping repercussions for just about every sector.”
Delicate Politics on the Hill
House Democrats do not seem eager to help Republican leadership out by supporting its shutdown-averting spending bill, NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson, Ursula Perano, Ben T.N. Mause, Tinashe Chingarande and Katherine Swartz report.
Speaker Mike Johnson isn’t holding his breath for any House Democratic support, but rather is banking on enough Senate Dems ultimately swallowing what the House sends their way in lieu of owning any shutdown, NOTUS’ Daniella Diaz and Reese Gorman report.
The result is two unity tests for two very different leaders.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has “the awkward job of balancing Democratic disdain for the legislation and acknowledging that, without some Senate Democratic votes, funding would almost certainly expire,” the NOTUS team writes.
As for Johnson, he can only afford to lose one vote from his conference if all House Democrats vote against the bill. Trump is working behind the scenes to flip a handful of Republican holdouts, sources told NOTUS, making direct appeals in phone calls to members.
Read our reporting on Democrats’ moves. And read our reporting on where this leaves the speaker.
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.
- They were working to ensure invasive pests didn’t destroy U.S. crops — until they were abruptly fired by Suzy Khimm for NBC News
- Hollywood Pivots to Programming for Trump’s America by Joe Flint for The Wall Street Journal
- Stalled Audits and a Skeleton Staff: Inside Trump’s War on the I.R.S. by Andrew Duehren for The New York Times
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