Today’s notice: Can’t argue with the man — seriously, you cannot argue with him. At least one person is saying the name Mark Robinson again. How the White House closed the deal. Democratic AGs versus the reality of nationwide injunctions.
The Latest
Well, That Escalated Quickly: Rarely are the politics of any given moment as clear as they are right now. Republicans believe that if there is a political risk to be taken, they’re taking it on the side of President Donald Trump. Republicans in both chambers of Congress have been cajoled, pushed and threatened on the way to vote for a bill that many of them do not like and see as a huge political gamble at best. But in the end, they see doing what Trump wants as the safest bet.
The Senate kept open the vote on the reconciliation motion to proceed on Saturday night for more than three hours to negotiate with on-the-fence lawmakers. The whole tortured scene ended predictably (it passed, likely setting up a final vote in the Senate sometime today) but gave us some very clear examples that this is simply Trump’s show.
Sen. Josh Hawley: He’s been one of the most vocal opponents of the Medicaid cuts contained in the bill and voted for it anyway because of an “increase in overall Medicaid funds” to Missouri.
- “I want to be clear, though, that the future Medicaid cuts are terrible,” he told reporters over the weekend, vowing to keep fighting them. (From NOTUS last week: Josh Hawley Goes From ‘Don’t Cut Medicaid’ to Most Cuts Would ‘Be Fine.’)
Sen. Lisa Murkowski: She also said she didn’t like the cuts contained in the bill, but reportedly was able to get a break for her state (though the parliamentarian later said no to that) and Republicans threw in a tax break for Alaskan whaling captains. Despite her repeated and vocal misgivings with the way Trump does business, she voted yes.
Sen. Ron Johnson: He initially voted no, had been adamant about voting no, and switched his vote to yes.
Sen. Thom Tillis: He voted no on the MTP, Trump promised to primary him, Tillis retired.
- Tillis wanted to resign immediately, two Republican sources told NOTUS’ Reese Gorman and Alex Roarty, but he ultimately decided to see out his term. Between running again under attack from Trump or being with his family, “It’s not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking re-election,” Tillis said.
Brief campaign tangent. Reese and Alex report that names being thrown around to run are NRCC Chair Richard Hudson, RNC Chair Michael Whatley and Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump. Before Tillis’ announcement, a GOP strategist sent Jasmine former North Carolina LG Mark Robinson’s three flushed face emoji post over Trump’s Truth Social primary promise. The source, who is close to the White House, said Robinson has been in D.C. in the past few days.
NOTUS’ Shifra Dayak found Tillis on his way out of the Capitol last night, where he told reporters that “minisoldr wouldn’t stand a chance” — a reference to Robinson’s erm, alleged username.
Say it with us: The candidate will be whoever Trump wants.
Open Tabs: Trump plans to announce TikTok buyer in two weeks (Axios); Protesters line highway in Florida Everglades to oppose ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ (AP); Lindsey Graham Swayed Trump on Striking Iran. Here’s What’s Next. (WSJ); Mark Warner decries ‘outrageous’ ouster of University of Virginia president (Politico) Republican Rep. Don Bacon to Announce Retirement from Congress (NOTUS)
From the Hill
Vance, the Closer: The VP flew back to D.C. from Ohio on Saturday to help push the bill over the line with the assistance of Dep. CoS James Blair and White House Leg. Affairs Dir. James Braid. He arrived at the Capitol in case he was needed to break a tie — but ended up helping get Senate holdouts Cynthia Lummis, Rick Scott and Mike Lee over the line, Reese reports from a source familiar, and spent some time convincing Murkowski too.
Trump, the Closer: The same source tells Reese the president hosted senators at Trump National Golf Club Saturday morning. Sen. Lindsey Graham posted from the green, boasting his threesome of Trump and Sen. Rand Paul beat a team made up of Sen. Eric Schmitt and CIA Dir. John Ratcliffe. (Paul has been clear he’s against the bill and voted no on the MTP.)
After the golf came the phone calls. Our sources said Trump was dialing up senators late into the night.
The Big One
What’s Next for Dem AGs? Last week’s SCOTUS ruling limiting the power of federal district judges to impose nationwide injunctions put a new spotlight on one of the more successful Democratic resistance efforts of Trump 2.0: Democratic attorneys general.
The ruling was essentially the starting gun for a new race through the courts, with the administration racing to rescind the injunctions it currently faces and critics working just as quickly to set up new legal restraints on Trump’s power. NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery breaks this down.
But everyone agrees things are different now, and that’s where the Dem AGs come in. A pretty clear interpretation of the ruling is that there are only two avenues for lower courts to issue broad-based blocks on the administration now: class-action lawsuits and challenges from the states themselves. The Dem AGs have been filing these cases all along, and told reporters Friday they are ready to keep going.
These AGs are “in the unique position of retaining the ability to secure injunctions that protect the rights of all,” Rep. Jamie Raskin told NOTUS’ Oriana González and Anna Kramer after the ruling.
New on NOTUS
Extra Tasty Crispy: It’s a “Kentucky fried food fight” among Republicans in the Bluegrass state. Trump has declared war on Rep. Thomas Massie, and former Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita is already running a million-dollar TV ad campaign against him. Now all they have to do is find a candidate to run in the primary. “Just need a warm body … honestly,” a White House official said.
Dems Struggle on Trans Rights: Democrats are still paralyzed by internal disagreements over transgender rights. The fulsome Skrmetti SCOTUS ruling upholding a state ban on gender-affirming care is not the same rallying cry as Dobbs or many other rulings have been for the party, and many Democrats are ready to move on. Skrmetti “pretty much kicked the can to say it’s a states’ rights issue,” Rep. Julie Johnson told NOTUS’ Oriana González.
Not Playing Along: We’ve been tracking the ways the implementation of Trump’s mass deportation plan has been shifting the political conversation. Last week, only seven Democrats crossed the aisle to support a bill condemning anti-ICE protests. In the first days of Trump 2.0, 48 Dems supported the Laken Riley Act. NOTUS’ Casey Murray reports on how “Democrats are feeling more pressure now to resist.”
More: The Supreme Court Keeps Louisiana in Limbo Over Its Congressional District Map; Supreme Court Grants RFK Jr. Unprecedented Power of Key HHS Panel; Trump Thanks the Supreme Court for Delivering for Him
NOT US
- Dead members of Congress can’t stop posting by Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing for Politico
- The first rule in Trump’s Washington: Don’t write anything down by Hannah Natanson for The Washington Post
- Roberts rebuffs some criticism of Supreme Court decisions as ‘venting’ by Zach Schonfeld for The Hill
Week Ahead
The Senate will take a final vote on the reconciliation bill sometime on Monday. The House will be in later this week to try and put it through to Trump’s desk by Friday, which is Independence Day.
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