New Jersey Democrats have picked Rep. Mikie Sherrill as their candidate to prove that the state’s rightward shift in 2024 won’t be repeated.
Sherrill is set to face Republican former New Jersey state representative Jack Ciattarelli in the November governor’s race.
Democrats have been grappling with how to hang onto their gubernatorial power since November when Donald Trump performed better than most in the state expected.
“There’s no doubt that [Republicans] are going to put a lot of time, energy and money here,” Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, told NOTUS last week from New Jersey, where he led two days of Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts. “And so we have a great opportunity to win if we unify. And of course, if we’re focused on November, and I believe people are and will be, we’re going to get started right away.”
With 70% of the estimated votes reported, Sherrill earned 35% of the Democratic vote and Ciattarelli earned 67% of the Republican vote, according to the Associated Press.
Each also received high-profile endorsements from figures in their respective parties, with Sherrill shoring up support from multiple members of New Jersey’s congressional delegation and state Democratic leaders, who continue to be influential in the state’s political layout despite the new absence of party-line politics. She’s faced criticism from party members because of that support — but strategists also told NOTUS it could be an advantage because the party will quickly coalesce around her in the days after the primary.
“There’s going to be five disappointed candidates tonight and their teams, but in terms of the party as a whole, people are really focused on winning November, and I don’t expect the nominee to have any trouble consolidating support of the party basically instantaneously,” New Jersey Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck told NOTUS on Tuesday ahead of the primary.
Ciattarelli’s supporters will be equally as influential over the next few months, especially since Trump endorsed him last month. He won a fraught contest where the Republican candidates competed over who was most aligned with the president’s messaging and agenda.
But Democrats in the state are confident that Ciattarelli’s connection with Trump isn’t going to give him an automatic leg up — even in areas like Passaic and Hudson counties, which saw drastic rightward shifts in 2024, many of which were driven by Latino, Arab American and other voters of color.
“I think what Republicans have to show is, all this talk about inroads that Donald Trump has made with communities of color — and he has, there’s no question — does that translate past Donald Trump when he’s not on the ballot?” said Daniel Bryan, a Democratic strategist in the state.
That’s the argument that multiple national groups are making as they aim to map out their strategy for the next few months.
Democrats did not run a full-fledged campaign in the state ahead of the 2024 election, which paved the way for Republicans’ gains, a Democratic Governors Association spokesperson said. This time, there’s the DNC, which Martin told NOTUS wants to up the ante on nationwide voter registration efforts to ensure that Democrats can keep up momentum and earn support from independent voters in New Jersey amid a backdrop of growing Republican registration gains.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Governors Association has raised more than $41 million this year, which is double the amount the group brought in during the first half of 2021, the last time New Jersey held a gubernatorial election.
The DGA says it is confident that the party will focus on kitchen-table issues and consistent economic messaging in the lead up to November, which will advantage them, the spokesperson said.
Democratic strategists that NOTUS spoke to were more divided over what issues would take precedence in the lead up to November’s election.
Bryan told NOTUS that “Democrats have seen kind of the opposing Donald Trump thing as the floor, not the ceiling,” so they’ll accordingly focus on state issues like affordability in the lead up to November.
But de Koninck said national issues will have an outsize impact.
Advertising in the race — which is shaping up to be the most expensive race in New Jersey history and in 2025 so far, with more than $85 million in ad spending, according to advertising intelligence group AdImpact — reflects that likelihood. Trump has been mentioned in almost three-quarters of advertising in the race, according to an AdImpact analysis.
“Whoever emerges on the Democratic side … [is] going to be defined by how they respond to Trump,” de Koninck told NOTUS ahead of the primary. “What’s going on in Washington and national issues are just going to dominate the conversation.”
Republicans, for their part, don’t want to delve into national issues at all.
Chris Russell, a Republican strategist and Ciattarelli adviser, told NOTUS the Ciattarelli campaign will focus on claims of Democratic incompetence and plans to hit Sherrill on personal controversies, like congressional ethics fines for improper stock-trading disclosures and scrutiny over stock-trading behavior.
“That’s going to be a huge issue that we’re going to really hammer on her neck,” Russell said. “The fact that she, in six years in Congress, earning $175,000 a year, has now a net worth that tripled to over $10 million. That’s something she’s gonna have to explain to the people of New Jersey.”
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Shifra Dayak is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.