Maine Democrats are on track to select a new Senate candidate later this week. Their likely pick? A former state lawmaker who lost the party’s recent gubernatorial primary, has no federal political experience and has only three months to assemble a campaign against a 30-year Republican incumbent.
Most party leaders — including Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand, who said she’s “very optimistic that we will win Maine” — say they haven’t felt this good about the race in months.
“I think it’s going to be hotly contested, but I think it’s very much back in play,” said Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico.
On Saturday, Democrats in Maine are expected to pick Troy Jackson as their Senate nominee against Republican incumbent Susan Collins, less than a month after the party’s former nominee, Graham Platner, was accused of sexual assault, the latest in a string of controversies he faced throughout his campaign.
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Jackson’s nomination would cap what has been one of the party’s most tumultuous primary processes in recent memory, a series of mishaps that could — and is widely expected to — jeopardize the Democrats’ ability to defeat Collins.
That’s especially the case with a candidate like Jackson, who even allies acknowledge is an underwhelming orator with little time to build out a campaign infrastructure.
But Democrats in Washington and Maine insist they think he’s still in a better position than Platner, who, despite denying the allegations, carried baggage into the race that party strategists feared would undermine his electability.
“Turbulence is never the friend of politics, but I think there’s plenty of time,” Sen. John Hickenlooper of Colorado told NOTUS. “There’s some history, and people have done attack ads, and you know, have in some way vetted him a little more thoroughly than some candidates get.”
The sentiment reflects just how anxious many Democrats — especially moderates — had become about Platner’s chances against Collins, so much so that they are relieved to throw in with a candidate few national Democrats know well.
More importantly, it indicates that Democrats remain committed to trying to win the Senate race despite everything that has happened there. Democrats likely need to win the race in Maine — the only Senate seat held by a Republican in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024 that is up for grabs this year — to have a chance at flipping majority control of the Senate.
Platner’s baggage had made his path to victory “very likely insurmountable,” said Lauren French, spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Senate Democrats.
“Now we have the opportunity to refocus this conversation where it should be, which is Susan Collins,” she said.
National Democrats have pointedly stayed out of the race to replace Platner. Asked if he would support Jackson, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed confidence in defeating Collins, a formidable and well-funded incumbent who is seeking her sixth term in Washington.
“We’re going to win Maine. Susan Collins is going to lose, and we are going to take back the Senate,” Schumer told NOTUS. “People in Maine don’t like Donald Trump, and they don’t like that Susan Collins always votes with him.”
Jackson told The New York Times this week that he would not support Schumer being the party’s leader in the Senate. He was also wary of receiving support from the minority leader.
“I’d have to find out what that entailed,” Jackson told the New York Times. “I mean, if his help comes, absolutely no strings, I would say, you know, possibly. There’d have to be no strings.”
Jackson’s team did not comment for this article.
Among voters, Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former state Senate president, appears to start the race in a competitive position. He edged out Collins by 3 percentage points in a recent poll from the University of New Hampshire, and, unlike Collins, he is viewed quite favorably by Maine voters. The poll’s margin of error is 2.8 percentage points.
But that could change with the onslaught of Republican attacks waiting for him in the general election.
Republicans have already begun drawing parallels between Platner and Jackson. They’ve pointed to Jackson’s reported history of growing angry in meetings, and attacked him for views Republicans have cast as extreme, like support for a single-payer health care system.
“He’s had quite a transformation over the years in his political views, but now seems to be firmly aligned with the democratic socialists,” Collins told NBC News, referring to Jackson’s conservative positions on social issues, like abortion, more than a decade ago.
Democrats acknowledge that Maine will still be a difficult place for Democrats to win, but President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and rising costs give the party a chance to make a compelling case.
“While the Democrats will have a new candidate by the end of this weekend, the fundamental motivation around winning the Senate race hasn’t changed at all,” said Emily Cain, a Democratic strategist in Maine.
Platner’s departure is a second chance at the seat without the distraction of controversy, some Democrats argue.
An open question is whether Jackson can raise the money needed to beat Collins, who had nearly $11 million in the bank at the end of June. He’s raised $1 million in the less than two weeks since he entered the race, Politico reported.
“All 49 states of Democratic Party activists and donors — small donors and large donors — are now all eyes on Maine,” said Democratic strategist Mike Trujillo.
One Democratic donor who gave the largest contribution they could to Graham Platner told NOTUS they plan to give the maximum donation to the new candidate as well.
“Maine is Maine,” the donor said. “My priority is winning in the general in every state where we’re competitive, and that definitely includes Maine. No matter who’s running, I’m sold.”
Still, other Democrats are less than certain about their chances of flipping Maine’s Senate seat after Platner’s collapse and the rushed process for selecting his replacement.
“They had to come up with somebody, and they did,” Hawaii Sen. Mazie Hirono said of Maine Democrats’ likely nomination of Jackson.
Asked if he had a better shot than Platner, Hirono burst into laughter.
“Let’s just say that we have a candidate,” she said.
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