An internal poll from Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s campaign shows him effectively tied with his likely Republican opponent in a hypothetical matchup in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Golden’s campaign says it’s proof the congressman can win his battleground reelection race next year despite the district’s rightward trend.
A memo accompanying the survey also issued an explicit warning to a potential Democratic primary challenger to Golden, saying only the four-term incumbent can win the conservative-leaning seat.
Golden leads former Republican Gov. Paul LePage 44% to 43%, according to the internal poll shared with NOTUS, with 12% of voters undecided. Golden’s edge is well within the survey’s 4.9% margin of error, a sign of what Democrats expect to be a highly competitive contest.
A rival internal poll from a Republican super PAC, released in May, found Golden trailing LePage 48% to 43%. That survey was conducted in April; the poll from Golden was taken in June.
Golden’s seat is considered a pickup opportunity for Republicans, who tout the district’s rural makeup and the fact Donald Trump won it handily all three times he’s run for president. Golden might also face a primary challenge, after upsetting some Democrats by voting to support some parts of the GOP’s congressional agenda.
Golden won reelection by just over 2,000 votes last year.
“For four cycles, Congressman Golden overcame these headwinds, winning by one point or less in two of those elections, including by just one point in the ‘blue wave’ of 2018,” the memo reads. “As our poll shows, 2026 is shaping up to be a close race yet again.”
The survey does contain some good news for Golden among Democratic voters, who back the incumbent over LePage 93% to 1%. It also comes soon after the lawmaker reported raising more than $800,000 in the second fundraising quarter, more than the roughly $500,000 raised by LePage.
But the poll’s release comes amid growing speculation that Golden could face a primary challenge from Matt Dunlap, Maine’s auditor and former secretary of state. The survey also tests Dunlap in a hypothetical matchup against LePage.
The state auditor fares worse than Golden, according to the poll, trailing the Republican by 10 percentage points, 37% to 47%.
“The totality of the data makes clear that Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is challenging ground for Democrats, with Congressman Golden one of the only Democrats able to win, and the only Democrat who has consistently won,” the memo reads.
Reached for comment, Dunlap dismissed the poll’s results, telling NOTUS he was more interested in the fact the survey didn’t show how he would fare against Golden in a primary matchup.
“The fact the Golden campaign is waving this bloody shirt around tells you they’re pretty nervous about a primary challenge,” Dunlap said.
Dunlap put the odds that he would eventually run against Golden at 50/50, saying he needed to spend time over the coming weeks more deeply assessing the challenges that come with launching a major congressional campaign. But he said much of the feedback he’s received from potential supporters has been “very, very positive.”
Dunlap says he expects to make a decision sometime after Labor Day, though he added that his timeline could change.
The poll, conducted by the Democratic firm The Mellman Group, surveyed 400 likely voters from June 4 to June 10.
This story has been updated with further information about the poll.