Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine opted to run for reelection rather than for governor or Senate, but that doesn’t mean he’ll avoid a difficult race next year.
The incumbent trails former Republican Gov. Paul LePage 43% to 48% in a matchup in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, according to a new poll of likely voters from a Republican super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, first reported by NOTUS.
LePage, a two-term governor who left office in 2019, announced in May he would run for Congress in what will likely be one of the midterm elections’ most closely watched House races.
The survey found the former Republican governor was boosted by President Donald Trump’s popularity in the district and Golden’s struggles with his party’s political base.
NOTUS obtained the poll shortly after the Democratic incumbent, who was considering a bid for either governor or Senate, announced Tuesday that he would seek reelection instead. The news delighted House Democrats in Washington, many of whom see the moderate Golden as the party’s only candidate who can win the right-leaning seat.
Golden, first elected in 2018, narrowly won reelection last year even as Trump delivered a decisive victory there. Democrats hope that he will face a more favorable political climate in next year’s midterms, when the party that doesn’t control the White House traditionally performs well in congressional elections.
In a likely matchup with LePage, however, he faces an opponent who starts the campaign with near-universal name recognition and a devoted following among conservatives, even if he badly lost his last race for governor in 2022.
Golden mocked the poll’s results and alluded to reports that LePage had until recently lived in Florida.
“Yeah alright, what’s the poll question, ‘Who are you more likely to spot on a Florida beach in a Speedo, Paul LePage or Jared Golden?’” Golden told NOTUS in a statement. “What a joke.”
In a sign of the district’s difficulty for Democrats, the internal GOP poll found a Republican leading a generic ballot in the district 47% to 38%, with 15% undecided. It also found that Trump had a 50% approval rating there when the survey was conducted in mid-April.
Golden’s own favorability image is underwater, according to the poll, in part because of his struggles with the Democratic base. The lawmaker is viewed favorably by 39% of voters, compared to 45% who see him unfavorably. Among Democrats, just 54% saw him favorably, compared to 38% who didn’t.
Golden angered Democrats recently after embracing some of Trump’s positions, including on trade tariffs. That resentment within the party’s base was seen as an obstacle for the lawmaker in a Democratic primary if he had run for governor or Senate.
Golden might still draw a primary challenge: Maine’s state auditor, Matt Dunlap, has said he would explore a run for the party’s nomination in the 2nd district.
The survey was conducted from April 13 through April 15 by Ragnar Research Partners, which interviewed 400 likely voters in the district. The margin of error was 4.9%.
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Alex Roarty is a reporter at NOTUS.