PHILADELPHIA — Two weeks ago, Democrats started to worry that Pennsylvania might just slip through Vice President Kamala Harris’ fingers.
A Politico report described consternation among Pennsylvania party leaders, particularly in Philadelphia, about shortcomings in the Harris campaign machine. But as Election Day nears, at least one leader, Philadelphia Democratic City Committee Chair Bob Brady, isn’t quite so anxious any more.
“I taught them,” Brady told NOTUS. “I screamed at them.”
“In the last two weeks, they came around,” he said. “They’re starting to work with us. We got all the signs we needed.”
That’s just one man’s perspective. And Philadelphia Democrats are just one piece of a massive get-out-the-vote operation in perhaps the most critical swing state in the country. As Donald Trump seeks to grow his margins in suburban and rural counties, supercharging turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia is critical.
Some operatives say it’s the whole ball game. And in the city, they certainly feel that way.
“Philadelphia is the most important county in the most important state in the most important election of our lifetimes,” Pennsylvania Democrats Political Director John Brady — no relation to the aforementioned Bob — told NOTUS.
But in Philadelphia, Bob Brady’s perspective carries weight. He’s someone you want feeling good about your campaign’s prospects. At 79 years old, the former congressman and close personal friend of President Joe Biden is still a powerbroker here. He’s chaired the city party since 1986, and has had his finger on the pulse of Philadelphia politics since Ronald Reagan was in office.
Even with four decades of experience, he insisted to NOTUS that he has “never seen that much enthusiasm.”
The Philadelphia Democratic City Committee’s relationship with the Harris campaign has come under some scrutiny in recent weeks, with Brady seeking a $1.2 million investment for get-out-the-vote expenses. Brady reiterated that he wanted more money on Wednesday — he distributed some $500,000 to committee members on Thursday — but insisted he and the Harris campaign were copacetic. They’re now working “hand in hand,” he said.
It’s hardly surprising that a prominent Democrat in a key city is feeling good about the state of the race less than a week before the election — or that he is already starting to take some credit. But Brady’s outlook isn’t the only positive indicator Democrats are citing regarding Philadelphia turnout.
Based on 2020, Philadelphia will be key to getting Pennsylvania over the line for Harris. The bluest county in the state, Philadelphia was crucial for delivering Pennsylvania to Joe Biden in 2020 — a year with the highest Philadelphia turnout since 1984. Over 749,000 Philadelphians cast ballots; Trump won just 18% of them in a state that broke for Biden by just 30,000 votes.
In the past two weeks, members of the Democratic apparatus have talked to over 175,000 Philadelphia voters, including about 25,000 who aren’t considered solid Democratic voters, a party official told NOTUS. They expect canvassers to knock on over 250,000 doors and make a million phone calls in the next five days.
Regarding mail ballots, the official said, they are bullish about exceeding expectations, pointing to the return rate in wards with high numbers of Black voters — especially those wards with higher educational levels — that are outpacing rates in previous elections. Meanwhile, whiter, more progressive wards that generally lead return rates are toward the middle of the pack and require less-frequent engagement.
In Pennsylvania broadly, the Harris campaign expects the vast majority of the vote to come in on Election Day, in part because the commonwealth has one of the clunkier in-person early voting methods. A senior campaign official said Thursday that the Harris team is seeing a 65%-75% ballot return rate from voters it expects to vote Democrat, a number a senior campaign official said puts Harris “in a strong position.”
But numbers are one thing. To report on Philadelphia one week from Election Day is to be inundated with a mound of anecdotal evidence too.
There are voters gushing about a quintessentially Philly get-out-the-vote “rave” on Monday featuring Bill Nye The Science Guy, the rapper Quavo and 76ers point guard Reggie Jackson. And other Philadelphians who will be DJing at a polling station on Tuesday to liven up the mood as people stand in lines.
Those lines, by the way, are already around the corner. At least, that’s how former attorney general candidate Keir Bradford-Grey put it to NOTUS.
“I saw the early voting line wrapped around the building of City Hall,” she said. “I left work at 7 o’clock at night, and the line was still wrapped around the building. I’ve never seen that before.”
As far as demographics that have caused some consultant-class handwringing, retired Judge and former mayoral candidate James DeLeon said he thinks men will turn out for Harris, adding that just because Trump is a man “does not mean he’s a man’s man.”
And state Rep. Danilo Burgos said the comedian calling Puerto Rico “garbage” at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally has animated the Latino community.
“This past Monday, we have had an uptick in people that want to volunteer, people wanting posters, literature. People asking, ‘What can I do?’” Burgos said.
These are the types of omens that encourage Brady. “I’ve never seen so much activity,” he said. “I’m really, really pleased with the activity that we’re seeing.”
In the last days of the race, the Harris campaign has been bringing out their big guns. Barack Obama spoke at Temple University on Tuesday and golfed with Eagles running back Saquon Barkley on Wednesday. (Jalen Hurts was also there, but isn’t allowed to golf per his contract.) Tim Walz spent Thursday in Bucks County. Harris is set to deliver her closing campaign address from Philadelphia on Monday night. Plenty of other surrogates are expected to swing through before all votes are cast.
The Harris campaign itself has seven offices in Philadelphia and more than 50 organizers. Since July, 110,000 people have volunteered for the campaign across the state and the campaign has knocked on almost 2 million doors.
But the fight is not over yet. In the final stretch, a top priority for Democrats is ensuring that about 50,000 mail-in ballots that have been requested in Philadelphia but not yet returned are actually sent in. Then it’s about juicing turnout.
John Brady said he’s focused on targeting young people and new registrants. “If you build it, they’ll come,” he said. “If you market to them, if you tell them how to get there, they will”
Make no mistake: Though Democrats have Philadelphia in the bag, they do not have Pennsylvania in the bag.
Susquehanna’s final poll reported Harris and Trump tied at 46% of the vote. Quinnipiac’s final poll found Trump up 47% to Harris’ 46%.
Philadelphia’s enthusiasm will undoubtedly be a critical counterweight, but it will also be an immeasurable one until Nov. 6.
At the Philadelphia Democrats’ headquarters this week, however, if there was any last minute bellyaching, Democrats weren’t saying it to reporters.
“Bad things happen in Philadelphia,” Bob Brady said, referencing an infamous Trump insult. “Bad things for him.”
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Riley Rogerson is a reporter at NOTUS.