As Democrats inside the Capitol were voting Tuesday to block a Republican government funding bill, a crowd of some of their toughest critics gathered outside to cheer them on.
The event was sponsored by a slew of progressive groups best known for tormenting congressional Democrats this year with posts and protests. This week, though, progressives and lawmakers were in agreement: No funding bill without health care measures, even if it triggers a shutdown.
Depending on what happens next, the rally could be an early marker that Democrats’ huge political gamble paid off — or a brief high water mark for a coalition that could quickly sink back into its usual misery.
“I would be first in line to celebrate, shake their hands, throw a parade for Democratic leadership if they stick to the plan here, and I think they’ll deserve it. I think it will go a long way to build faith in the Democratic Party,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of Indivisible, a rally co-sponsor. “And if they surrender, it will fracture the Democratic Party. It will do great damage both to Americans and to the party’s ability to convince voters they’re not full of shit.”
The breakdown in trust between elected Democrats and their voters is the undercard story of Donald Trump’s second term. Democratic voters disapprove of the party’s leaders in Congress 59% to 40%, according to a September poll from the Pew Research Center. It was the first time Pew had found Democratic leaders underwater with their own base in more than a decade of polling.
The reason for these numbers, according to progressive leaders, is voters’ belief that Democrats in Congress are weak. The shutdown could turn that perception around.
“This fight could do a hell of a lot to change it by showing, ‘Actually, we’re not just writing a strongly worded letter. We’re using every tool at our disposal to ensure that we’re fighting for the American people,’” said David Hogg, a strong critic of the Democratic establishment and a co-founder of Leaders We Deserve, an activist group trying to elect young progressive candidates.
But Hogg was quick to add that Democrats are on a tight leash when it comes to concessions they could make to end the shutdown. “Is there an acceptable number of people for us to kick off health care? No, especially when it’s Republicans who have put our country and government in this place.”
Cheering on establishment Democrats can be an awkward sell for progressive groups, which were trashing them regularly just days ago. One prominent strategist discussed calling up supporters in New York last week to suggest they praise the House Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, publicly for his rhetoric leading up to the shutdown.
The strategist laughed when describing the response: “‘This is a little uncomfortable for us.’ We’re not used to cheerleading Hakeem Jefferies.”
Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a fierce critic of her fellow Democrats’ decision to vote for funding in March, told NOTUS the base and the party are marching together now.
“Yeah, I do think we’re aligned,” she said at Tuesday’s rally. “I think our values are so clearly in common, and I’m very proud of what our leader Hakeem Jeffries has done to bring people together.”
The shutdown is a political-messaging test and a policy fight, and that’s where many Democratic leaders would like to focus. Asked by NOTUS if the shutdown is a chance for a relationship reset with skeptical base groups, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s chair, Rep. Suzan DelBene, did not answer directly.
“I think we are absolutely focused on doing what our constituents want us to do, listening to them, understanding how critically important addressing affordability is across the country, and standing up for health care,” she said on Tuesday ahead of the shutdown. “Health care impacts everyone in the country — our red districts, our blue districts — that’s our priority, and that’s always going to be kind of the guiding light for us.”
The shutdown carries broad political risk for Democrats. In a poll released this week from The New York Times and Siena University, 65% of all respondents said Democrats should not shut down the government if their demands were not met, compared to 27% of people who said they should shut it down.
Among registered Democrats polled, 43% said the party should not shut down the government if its demands aren’t met, while 47% said it should.
So the shutdown stands as the most prominent test for the coalition assembled at the rally outside the Capitol.
A win for Democrats could mean some policy concessions from Republicans, or maybe just polls showing Americans blame the GOP (though past experience suggests that’s a short-lived victory). But real victory would include a party stitched together again as the midterms get underway.
It’s too early to tell if that result is actually possible.
“People are fed up with the wet-blanket Democrats,” Levin said. “They want something else, and I think leadership understands that. I actually do think they are worried about a repeat of March where the blowback is overwhelming. Because they understand you can do that a few months after the last election, but you can’t do it a few months before primary season. It’s much more dangerous.”