Democrats have spent two years seething that the Trump administration shut Congress out of decisions about the Pentagon, from the Iran war to politically connected contractors and a defense budget that’s ballooned to $1.5 trillion.
If the party prevails in the midterms, it will finally have the gavels and subpoena power to act.
K Street lobbyists say that if Democrats retake one or both chambers, they’re girding for aggressive investigations of President Donald Trump’s Pentagon and the companies that do business with it, particularly if the administration obstructs.
“You’re going to have a major focus on the department, but wherever or whenever they get stymied, or maybe even to build a case, they might bring in industry,” said John Keast, who heads Keast Strategic Solutions and works with major defense clients. “Industry will be stuck between a rock and a hard place because new leadership [in Congress] hasn’t changed who’s in the White House for two more years.”
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Democrats already have a prime target. This week, Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the Senate Investigations Subcommittee, was among lawmakers who asked the Pentagon’s inspector general to investigate reports that defense companies backed by 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. is an investor, and American Ventures, where Eric Trump is an investor, received billions of dollars in government awards. “We need to look into whether Trump’s sons are profiting from investments in defense contractors that involve insider information or contracts awarded in ways that compromise defense interests, among a number of issues,” Blumenthal said in an interview.Democrats should, Blumenthal said, probe the administration’s growing reliance on single-source contracts and whether the administration has given preferential treatment to companies with political ties, particularly those that donated to Trump’s White House ballroom project.
Potential conflicts are only one investigative lane. In the House, where Democrats are widely seen as having their best chance of winning, House Armed Services Democrats would likely begin with the Pentagon itself and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whose handling of the unpopular Iran conflict, officer purges and deadly boat strikes have drawn sharp criticism.
The House Armed Services Committee would likely focus on military strategy, acquisition decisions and the Pentagon’s rapidly growing budget, former aides said. The House Oversight Committee, meanwhile, is more likely to go after politically charged questions involving potential corruption, conflicts of interest, companies connected to Trump allies such as SpaceX and other ethics issues.
Lobbyists are focused on the panel’s top Democrat, Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, who would become chairman if Democrats retake the House. They say Smith supports a strong defense industrial base but also that the Pentagon must justify its ever-growing budget, a perspective that could put some weapon programs on the chopping block.
“I think you will see pragmatic pushback” on the administration’s defense spending plans, said Brian Greer, a former House Armed Services staffer who now heads Greer Strategic Partners. “Which programs are we using? Which ones need to be retired? Are sound budgetary decisions being made?”
The Iran war and its economic fallout have driven Democrats’ midterm messaging, with lawmakers arguing the administration has dragged the country into another lengthy Middle Eastern war while stonewalling Congress. Former aides say a Democratic victory would leave Smith and party leaders facing intense pressure from infuriated members to demand long-sought answers from the Pentagon.
The House Armed Services Committee has traditionally relied on voluntary cooperation from the Pentagon, rather than subpoenas. But former congressional aides expect Democrats to hold an array of hearings early in the new Congress and issue subpoenas if Pentagon officials are uncooperative.
“They are going to want him to get after the department and the president about Iran, about Ukraine, about extrajudicial killings; the list is long,” said one former committee aide who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Here’s where the problem is: They won’t get answers from the Department of Defense.”
And that’s where industry could find itself pulled into the fight. If Pentagon officials stiff-arm congressional investigators, lawmakers could turn to testimony and documents from outside the government, including defense contractors and investors with close ties to the administration.
“My advice to companies right now is, if you don’t understand what it’s like to testify before Congress, you better learn pretty quick,” the former aide said. “If you have anything that you think is going to draw their ire, then you should start looking now for consultants who can help you prepare.”
Lobbyists expect Democrats to scrutinize the administration’s equity stakes in private defense and mining companies. They also expect questions about marquee initiatives such as the Golden Dome — which Smith has called “a project no one can explain” — and the cost of retrofitting Qatar’s donated aircraft for use as Air Force One.
Some firms are already expanding to meet that demand. Last month, the K Street firm Invariant hired David Weinberg, the former Democratic staff director of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, to lead its congressional oversight and investigations practice, aimed at helping clients prepare for heightened scrutiny.
Weinberg said companies should already be mapping out where they could face congressional attention and prepare responses. It’s not too soon for Democratic committee leaders, who he said are already thinking through staffing, investigative priorities and how they would use the larger budgets available to the majority.“I wouldn’t be shocked to see some of the first oversight letters going in the first week of the new Congress,” Weinberg said. “I do think that you’ll see chairs that are aggressive out of the gate.”
But Democrats face political risks, according to Michael Herson, the CEO of American Defense International, a consulting firm that focuses on government relations for major defense companies. While he expects aggressive oversight, he cautioned Democrats against letting investigations overshadow the need to address the economic issues that are driving voters.
“I think there’s a chance that they could overreach,” Herson said. “At the end of the day, the ordinary American is going to wonder, how did all this oversight help improve my day-to-day cost of living? Democrats have to be careful not to make this the crux of their Congress.”
Wherever Democrats ultimately direct their gaze, lobbyists say companies cannot afford to wait and should keep their relationships with Democratic lawmakers from growing stale.
“The companies that are postured to be able to anticipate the House and Senate flip, if it happens, will be in a better position than the ones who have only worked with the R’s,” Greer said. “Democrats are sensitive to a Johnny-come-lately approach.”
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