Hopes for End-of-Week Shutdown Fix Fizzle Out

On Monday of this week, there was a sense of bipartisan hope that the end of the government shutdown was near.

By Thursday, not so much.

The Senate expects to be in town Friday, potentially stretching members’ work through the weekend and into next week. Talks to find a compromise to get the government open have not yet borne fruit. President Donald Trump has said Democrats are winning the shutdown messaging wars, based on election results from Tuesday — and Democrats clearly think so, too.

Which is why members of the Senate Democratic Caucus exiting a closed-door meeting Thursday said they were united — though few would delve into what exactly they were united behind. But as Sen. Chris Murphy put it, “There’s a real sense of gravity, given what happened on Tuesday. It’s a pretty clear message from the American people, and we’re trying to find a way to stay together.”

He added: “It makes a lot more sense for us to come together on a joint strategy, rather than having division within the caucus. I think we’re a lot a lot closer to that.”

Staying together, at this point, would be critical for Democrats to extract concessions from Republicans. And throughout the week, it hasn’t exactly been clear whether Democrats were united at all. Roughly a dozen Senate Democrats have been engaging in negotiations with their colleagues across the aisle, leading to a sense that a critical mass of members were ready to back a deal (Republicans only need a handful of Democratic votes to reopen the government.) Others, like Sen. Bernie Sanders, urged Democrats to avoid any deal that did not actually extend the expiring health care subsidies the party says it’s fighting for.

Those talks are still ongoing, and Democrats still say they’re willing to find a compromise. Sen. Brian Schatz after Tuesday’s meeting said the president himself “has to get a meeting with all of the key stakeholders, and we could make a deal.” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin said he’s hopeful Trump will engage in talks and “bring [Speaker Mike] Johnson down and start the conversation for real.”

But there’s a sense that — given Tuesday’s election results — Democrats feel emboldened to hold out for longer than many thought they would just a few days ago. That’s dampened hopes that the shutdown would end this week, as a number of lawmakers earlier this week predicted it would.

“We’ve been united all the way through, and we’re going to continue to be united on health care,” Sen. Mazie Hirono said. “That’s it.”

Sen. Andy Kim said he’s been talking with members of the House, including Republicans, and “they’ve opened up a channel, this dialogue, straight with me and especially some of the other Senate freshmen, because we have strong relationships in both chambers.”

“These Republicans in the House are very concerned about this,” Kim added. “And hearing that has given me a greater sense that this is something I hope we can actually solve.”

Outward projections of unity can sometimes fall flat, however.

A slew of Democrats could break ranks, especially with another vote on the continuing resolution slated for Friday. When NOTUS asked Sen. John Fetterman, who’s been voting in favor of the continuing resolution, if there was any progress on talks, he replied: “I don’t think so. I don’t have a clear direction on that and my vote’s not gonna change.”

Sen. Gary Peters, who’s been a key negotiator for Democrats, said it was a “good caucus” and “folks really felt there was a lot of unification around ideas.”

When NOTUS asked what specifically Democrats are unifying around, Peters replied: “I don’t want to get into any of that, because this is all part of things that are going on, negotiating wise.”

It’s not just Democratic resolve complicating the timeline. At this point, the current House-passed continuing resolution is too close to its original expiration date of Nov. 21, meaning the bill will need to be amended or the government would shut down again shortly. And even if a deal was spectacularly struck Thursday, Friday or whenever else, the details of that agreement would likely need to be put into actual legislation. That takes time: members need to review it, amendments would be proposed, the House would have to agree.

What’s more, just one member of the Senate could hold up a time agreement to speed up a deal. The House would also need to return to town to pass any changed version of the legislation. Significant changes could cause holdups among varying ranks of House Republicans.

All the while, the pain of the shutdown grows by the day, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits have lapsed, federal workers continue to miss paychecks and significant disruption to flights nationwide is expected to begin tomorrow. This government shutdown became the longest in history on Wednesday, surpassing the previous 35-day record set from Dec. 2018 and Jan. 2019.

But Republicans aren’t ruling anything out. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stressed that they’re still looking for a path out of the shutdown, and he’s prepared to call a vote as soon as possible.

“If there’s a path forward to vote, whether that’s today, tomorrow, Saturday, we’ll certainly do that,” Thune said. “If the far left wins out in this and the Dems dig in, then I don’t know, we’ll see.”