Speaker Mike Johnson has talked a big game about delivering a “big, beautiful” reconciliation bill to enact Donald Trump’s agenda. But with the House slated to vote on a budget resolution Tuesday that may be doomed, Johnson looks like he’s in big trouble.
As a handful of members seek specific commitments from leadership about spending cuts in a reconciliation bill, Johnson’s commitments in the next 24 hours could be crucial for the success or failure of the ultimate legislation. But by Monday evening, one thing was clear: Lawmakers were dubious that the Tuesday vote would succeed — if it happens at all.
When asked if the vote was still scheduled for Tuesday, Johnson himself gave a noncommittal answer.
“We’ll see,” he said Monday night, noting there would be discussions going late into Monday evening.
But later Monday night, as he left the Capitol, Johnson told reporters that he thought Republicans were in decent shape.
“I mean, we’re having very productive conversations. As you all know, this is all part of the process and I think we’re on track,” he said.
Whether that prediction holds true remains to be seen, but the speaker has spent the first months of this Congress playing up his ability to deliver a sweeping tax, immigration and defense package with just one budget reconciliation bill, despite a narrow House majority and a divided conference.
For all the talk, eyes across Capitol Hill and the White House are trained on whether Johnson can get his budget resolution setting up a reconciliation bill adopted on the House floor.
“I put out a very aggressive timetable and schedule for the reasons we discussed — we need to do this quickly,” Johnson said at an Americans for Prosperity event Monday morning. “This is a prayer request. Just pray this through for us, because it is very high stakes and everybody knows that.”
It’s true that Tuesday’s supposed vote is a high-stakes measure of Johnson’s resolve, with potentially embarrassing consequences should leadership decide to delay a vote — or worse, fail on the floor.
Adding to the confusion, Republicans are frustrated by the lack of clear guidance or suggested messaging from leadership about the positive impact, two people familiar with discussions told NOTUS.
Two Republicans familiar with Johnson’s conversations said the speaker is reminding rank-and-file members that this is only the first step in a long process of figuring out the legislation, urging them to support the budget resolution for now.
“We absolutely have to do more aggressive and proactive messaging,” Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who was undecided Monday evening, told NOTUS.
Ciscomani is a member of the Congressional Hispanic Conference — led by Rep. Tony Gonzales — which wrote a letter to Johnson calling for “essential programs” like Medicaid, Pell Grants and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to not get “caught in the crossfire” with the budget resolution.
Ciscomani sat in an approximately eight-person meeting with Johnson and other CHC members Monday afternoon, describing the discussion to NOTUS as “open and frank,” while adding that “not everything is settled there.”
“I am both voicing my thoughts to anyone that will pay attention to them,” he said. “And also trying to get answers and assurance is really on how this is going to work, to make sure that we deliver the promises that we made, to cut out the waste of the abuse going on, while protecting those that are in the biggest need and the most vulnerable.”
A group of lawmakers — including Reps. Don Bacon, David Valadao and Nicole Malliotakis — want more guidance on how the House Energy and Commerce Committee would cut $880 billion from programs under its purview, as the budget directs the panel. They want assurances that the cuts wouldn’t include Medicaid.
“But if I can get some clarity, assurances, then I’m moving, moving a little bit more towards the yes column,” Malliotakis said, adding that there’s about six to 10 members who share the group’s concerns.
After another late night meeting with leadership Monday, however, Johnson seemed to have moved those undecided members toward supporting the resolution, with Malliotakis telling reporters, “I think we’re getting to a place where we feel a little more comfortable.”
But assuaging moderates won’t matter if Johnson can’t fend off a smaller, but more stubborn mutiny from conservatives who don’t think the budget goes far enough.
Rep. Thomas Massie declared Monday night that, “If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better.” (While Massie hasn’t clarified if that means he’s a no, he has a long history of voting against Republican budgets.)
Rep. Chip Roy, who voted to report the resolution out of the Budget Committee earlier this month, has also sounded undecided. On Sunday, he criticized the measure on X, saying it was “hardly aggressive enough.” If Roy does come out against the budget, Johnson will likely have a problem with other Freedom Caucus members. And if he makes assurances about not cutting Medicaid that more moderate Republicans want, the Freedom Caucus will almost certainly be an issue.
Still, for now, Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris told NOTUS he expects his group to unanimously support the budget resolution.
“The Freedom Caucus is all on board,” he said.
Meanwhile, Rep. Victoria Spartz — who threatened to quit Congress last term citing deficit concerns — pledged Monday to vote no on the “current version.” And Rep. Tim Burchett told reporters he is “currently a no.”
“There’s still some variables left on discretionary spending and other things, so we’ll see,” Burchett said in an interview Monday. “We’re all still talking and figuring out what we’re going to do.”
Because of the House GOP’s razor-thin majority, Johnson can only afford to lose one vote on the resolution and still get the budget adopted, assuming perfect attendance on both sides.
The House version of the resolution, which President Donald Trump endorsed last week over the Senate’s two-track approach, would include up to $2 trillion of spending cuts and allow for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. The bill also would raise the debt limit by $4 trillion and provide $300 billion in border and defense spending.
When Johnson has traditionally faced an impasse on the House floor, he’s leaned on Democrats to make up the difference with the lost GOP votes. But with cuts to entitlement programs on the table, Johnson likely won’t find any help from House Democrats this time.
In fact, Democrats are seeking to make the budget resolution vote as politically painful as possible for vulnerable Republicans, emphasizing slashes to Medicaid in ads, speeches and social media.
To that end, Democratic leadership is working to get their full caucus to attend the vote on Tuesday, though that may be a challenge, a senior Democratic aide told NOTUS. Rep. Raúl Grijalva, who is being treated for cancer, has not voted since early January.
Still, Democrats seem to be relishing in the political position Republicans have put themselves.
“Heading back to DC to oppose the Republican budget scheme that will slash and burn Medicaid benefits,” Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries posted on X on Monday.
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Daniella Diaz and Riley Rogerson are reporters at NOTUS.