As House Republicans continue fighting over some of the most basic decisions in the reconciliation bill, there’s another problem lurking for the GOP: The U.S. Senate.
Republican senators have warned that they won’t just accept whatever the House passes, all but guaranteeing that the legislation will head back to the House for at least another round of negotiations. But as Republicans try to move forward with a bill, what’s becoming increasingly clear is that the Senate might not just be a moderating influence over the reconciliation measure.
Less than a day after Speaker Mike Johnson said the House didn’t plan to touch the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage — essentially a breakdown dictating how much states and the federal government pay for certain Medicaid enrollees — senators suggested that, actually, the final legislation might touch FMAP.
Of course, senators are still waiting to see what the House produces, though they’re also starting to wonder whether that’s a productive use of time.
“We can’t control what the House is going to do, so I think the Senate simply needs to move forward,” Sen. Mike Rounds told NOTUS.
Rounds added that he wanted the best final product. But he said for that to happen, “we’ve got to come together.”
Other Republicans noted that the House seems to be, as Sen. John Cornyn said, “on a faster track than the Senate.”
“Which causes me a little bit of concern,” Cornyn said, “because I don’t want it to be sort of presented as a fait accompli to the Senate.”
That’s unlikely to happen.
Whatever the House comes up with, senators are likely to put their own stamp on the legislation. All along, both chambers have maintained wildly different visions for the reconciliation bill. Where the House budget called for $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, the Senate budget only called for about $4 billion. And adopting a budget — even one with different numbers between the chambers — was a slog for both chambers.
It took months for Republicans to simply adopt a budget resolution, which serves as nothing more than an outline for future legislation to unlock the reconciliation process. Republicans avoided the toughest decisions, like whether, by how much and how lawmakers plan to cut Medicaid. They punted on how much to raise the state and local tax deduction, which currently sits at $10,000 but is expected to go up substantially. And they didn’t decide whether there would be cuts to food benefits, or even whether the tax portion of the bill would do much beyond simply extending current individual tax rates.
The politics of this reconciliation bill are much tougher than the reconciliation bill Republicans passed in 2017. That original tax legislation simply cut rates. While it was somewhat controversial to lower revenue and therefore increase the debt and deficit, Republicans got onboard by reasoning that there would be economic growth from the tax cuts that would largely pay for the lost revenue.
But the tax cuts fell well short of paying for themselves.
Now some conservatives want to offset the costs of renewing the lower individual tax rates — about $4.5 trillion over the next 10 years — by lowering spending. The problem is, that means this legislation will feel more like a cut than anything else. (Americans will hardly notice tax rates that stay the same, but people who lose Medicaid coverage will certainly feel that.)
Conservative hardliners in the House insist the bill has to cut spending. But vulnerable Republicans, mostly in blue states and battleground districts, don’t want drastic Medicaid cuts.
The phenomena is particularly pronounced in the Senate, where vulnerable incumbents like Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins and swing-voters like Sen. Lisa Murkowski have warned that Medicaid cuts are a red line.
Those cuts are even a red line for Sen. Josh Hawley, one of the most MAGA-friendly senators in Congress. (It’s worth noting that one in nine adults aged 19 to 64 is on Medicaid in his home state of Missouri.)
“I’m not gonna vote for Medicaid cuts,” Hawley told reporters again last week. Notably, he also told NOTUS that he’s not getting assurances from the House that they won’t cut Medicaid, meaning it’s an issue that the Senate may have to address.
Hawley acknowledged that House Republicans “seem to be turning in the right direction” on Medicaid, with Johnson promising no adjustments to FMAP, but that stance was quickly met with conservative fury.
At this point, it’s unclear how Republicans plan to cut Medicaid, though it’s clear they plan to make reductions in some way. For now, Hawley and other Senate Republicans are waiting to see what they come up with.
“What I’ve learned about the House and the Speaker is that, until you see it in writing, it’s hard to say,” Hawley said.
Getting the bill in writing is its own Herculean task. While some key House committees plan to hold markups next week, the details have yet to be ironed out.
Earlier this year, Senate Republicans told NOTUS they wanted to be done with reconciliation by late June or July — which is roughly when the U.S. is projected to surpass the existing debt limit. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso this month said the inclusion of an increase to the debt limit is “part of all of our reconciliation discussions, and that’s not going to change.”
But as progress on the bill keeps stalling in the House, a backup plan for the debt limit could quickly become necessary. Falling over the debt limit’s fiscal cliff would have catastrophic implications for the domestic and international economy. While things like government funding deadlines occasionally go over, lawmakers have long managed to avoid going over the debt limit, often by a hair.
Republican senators acknowledged backup plans don’t hurt — especially given the circumstances. But none who spoke with NOTUS seemed to be at the point of formalizing one just yet.
“Nothing wrong with contingencies,” Rounds said. “But hopefully we’ll get it done on time.”
“They’ve always got contingency plans,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin said. “There’s always A, B and C. I feel positive.”
Whether they should feel positive remains to be seen. The House’s timeline of passing a bill by Memorial Day already seems to be slipping. And that’s before Republicans even put their hard choices on paper and open themselves up to criticism.
Even if House leaders can jam through a bill on time, as Johnson continues to predict, some Senate Republicans suspect the House and Senate will have to “conference” different bills to negotiate a final product.
Following a closed-door conference retreat last week, Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters that a member brought up the idea of potentially needing a conference to work out the reconciliation kinks. (That is, after all, how Republicans last got their reconciliation package in 2017 over the finish line.)
“I’m open to that idea,” Tillis said of a conference committee, “as long as it’s a manageable process that doesn’t go on forever.”
Still, a number of GOP senators say they have faith in the House to get their portion of the bill done promptly. Both wings of GOP leadership remain in regular touch — as do committees on both sides of the aisle.
Mullin, who’s close with both House and Senate GOP leadership, said the House is “working as hard as they can to deliver” and that he feels “positive” about the outcome.
“It’s been a very constructive conversation between all of us,” he said. “And I think we’re in a good spot.”
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Ursula Perano is a reporter at NOTUS. Helen Huiskes is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.