Democrats Prep for Shrinking Southern Delegations

House Democrats face a conundrum — they are optimistic about retaking the majority in the midterms, but with redistricting reshuffling the map it means Southern lawmakers’ power will be greatly diminished.

Bracing for the loss of some of their colleagues, Black Democrats from the South are appealing to leadership to help the region maintain power and influence in the caucus, even if its numbers shrink.

Rep. Bennie Thompson, the only Democrat in the Mississippi delegation, dodged a potential forced retirement last month when Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves canceled a special legislative session meant to redraw the state’s maps in Republicans’ favor. But legislators Republicans have suggested they’ll draw out Thompson’s 2nd Congressional District, eventually.

“I think there ought to be some consideration for the South. If not, that means that the area with the most African Americans in the United States will have the least amount of African American representation in Congress,” he added.

Members across the caucus are already thinking about how Democratic leadership can address the issue.

Delegations from Louisiana, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama are all at risk of having fewer Black Democrats in the next Congress after the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v Callais . The loss of those seats means House Democrats could have to adjust how they distribute committee assignments in 2027.

“If they don’t do a realignment, that means we’re even worse off,” Thompson, who has served as the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee since 2005, told NOTUS about how the caucus spreads out powerful committee gavels and slots.

Democrats currently separate all 50 states and the territories into 12 regions. Southern states are divided across three of those regions. Internally, the regions are critical to how Democrats wield power and move up into more influential posts. Each region elects a member to the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, which decides committee assignments. Those elected regional members are often the first to make the case for lawmakers to leadership for plum assignments.

Currently, California, which encompasses two of the 12 regions, has grown in the past years and makes up more than 20% of the Democratic caucus. The Southern regions account for about the same ratio but hold three out of the 12 regions.

After the midterms, incumbents and incoming members will make their case for committee assignments, all of them promoting their experience, skill, district and political significance. Leadership, ranking members and the House Steering Committee will all have a say, and redistributing the Southern area is likely to be a focus.

One idea being floated to address the dwindling number of Black lawmakers is a realignment of the caucus’ 12 regions, and potentially allowing senior Democrats to take on a heavier committee workload.

“Part of what needs to happen is the regions need to change,” Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Florida) told NOTUS. “Florida and Georgia are one region, but if we lose four members out of Florida, three members out of Georgia, then our region would be smaller, which means, you know, something might need to change.”

Democratic leadership makes an effort to assign members to their desired committees. But House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, like his predecessors, typically takes geography, region and ideology into consideration when it comes to doling out assignments. But Southern states’ reapportionment still means fewer members will have to carry a larger load than their colleagues from California, who represent a growing Democratic region.

“There will be fewer of us that will actually have to share responsibility to care for more constituents,” Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Georgia) told NOTUS.

Currently, Democrats who chair some of the top committees aren’t allowed to sit on another committee, per Democratic caucus rules. That could change.

“We’ve tried to be magnanimous in spreading the spoils of victory,” Thompson, who took a leave of absence from his post on the Agriculture Committee, said, adding that leadership could potentially lift that embargo and “give that option to chairs.”

That situation could look similar to how the women of the House Republican Conference operate. Because the House GOP has relatively few women, the same lawmakers get tapped more frequently to represent female viewpoints on committees and leadership, adding to their workload.

“But if that’s how you make sure that your folks get what’s coming to them, you do the work,” Thompson said.

Some Black Democrats see a silver lining to the potential shuffle after November. Rep. Troy Carter (D-Louisiana), who is the head of one of the caucus’ 12 regions, told NOTUS that it could be positive because there may be fewer members from the region competing for the same number (or more) of committee seats.

“Now we have more inventory than we have people. Before, we had more people than inventory.” Carter said. “We’re going to be spread pretty thin because we got fewer members.”

Southern Democrats are also weighing the reality that they stand to lose senior members — if not this cycle then in 2028 when Republicans and Democrats have threatened to continue redrawing maps.

Democrats expect Reps. Jim Clyburn (D-South Carolina), Sanford Bishop (D-Georgia) and Thompson, three veteran lawmakers, all of whom serve as ranking members on subcommittees or committees, to be forced to retire because of redistricting.

“It’s a combination of losing seats, which is bad, and losing seniority, and that really puts us at a disadvantage,” Rep. Deborah Ross (D-North Carolina) told NOTUS.