Democrats Believe Scandal and Weak Fundraising Put These Red Seats in Play

House Democrats think they can expand their 2026 midterm map to include a couple of typically safe red districts because the incumbents have twin vulnerabilities: weak fundraising and ethics issues.

Florida Republican Rep. Cory Mills faced allegations of stolen valor, domestic violence and shady business dealings this campaign cycle, and those issues appear to have deteriorated his campaign’s ability to bring in cash.

Last fall, between October and December, Mills raised a mere $61,000 — incredibly low numbers from a candidate who had never struggled to raise well over $100,000, often more than $200,000, every quarter since his election in 2022.

In that same time period, Bale Dalton, his Democratic challenger, a Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff, raised more than $343,000.

“My message is: Life is too expensive, and Cory Mills is too corrupt to fix it,” Dalton told NOTUS in an interview.

Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia, Tennessee, and Democrat challenging Rep. Andy Ogles, senses a similar opportunity. Although the district also historically votes Republican, Molder raised well over $1 million in the last two quarters of 2025, compared to Ogles’ $209,000 in that same period, as the congressman attempts to fend off an investigation into alleged campaign finance violations.

“We are talking to everyone,” Molder told NOTUS in an interview, “because we understand we have to bring people together and bring voters to our side that have perhaps voted for Andy Ogles in the past, that are disappointed with their vote because they see what kind of ineffective leader he has been.”

In 2024, Mills and Ogles won their own races by 13 and 17 percentage points, respectively. Although those margins are typically outside of striking distance to attract challengers, Democratic campaign brass smells blood in the water. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the two districts on its 2026 “districts in play” list, which opens up their Democratic challengers’ funding and campaign resources.

As evidence of the momentum for the Democrats, The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political handicapper, downgraded the races from “solid” to “likely” Republican last month. While the GOP is still favored to hang on, Democratic operators are betting that they can shake these districts loose against these embattled incumbents by deploying strong candidate recruitment and fundraising.

The 2026 battle for the House majority will likely come down to a few districts, and Mills’ and Ogles’ low fundraising numbers so far have caught the attention of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

“We’re keeping an eye on it. We’re talking to them,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson told NOTUS. “Those are pretty safe seats, so we’re not overly concerned, but keep an eye on it.”

Neither Mills nor Ogles receive money from Speaker Mike Johnson’s fundraising committee, Grow The Majority, which raises money for vulnerable Republicans.

When asked about his low fundraising numbers last quarter, Mills told NOTUS, “I think people look into it a little bit too much. I’ve never really had to fundraise.”

“I’m not really big on trying to go after and, one, take money from people who are actually needing their money right now, with cost of things, but secondarily, it’s one of those issues where I’m not going to spend my time out there on the trail trying to raise money, as opposed to doing my job,” Mills continued. (Between October and December of 2023, the congressman raised more than $150,000, over double what he raised in that same period in 2025.)

Ogles’ campaign and his Washington office did not respond to NOTUS’ requests for comment.

There is “very serious concern” among Republicans about Ogles’ poor fundraising numbers, a GOP strategist involved in House races previously told NOTUS.

Ogles faces a GOP primary challenger, Charlie Hatcher, who raised more than $408,000 in the last three months of 2025. Mills has his own primary challengers, Sarah Ulrich and Michael Johnson, though their fundraising numbers remain low: $2,400 and $13,800 in the last three months of 2025, respectively. Even if Ogles and Mills win their primaries, the misconduct allegations they face will be campaign fodder this fall.

Molder and Dalton are two of Democrats’ strongest candidates in House races. Molder, who first ran for Columbia mayor in 2018 and was reelected in 2022, is a rare elected Democrat representing a red area. Dalton’s ample military record directly contrasts the accusations that Mills did not deserve the Bronze Star the Army awarded him in 2021. The two candidates are facing Democratic primary opponents, but both boast a significant cash advantage.

While highlighting Mills’ and Ogles’ controversies is already a feature of their challengers’ campaign strategy, Dalton and Molder plan to keep much of their electoral messaging in line with other national Democrats, focusing on affordability.

“We are absolutely hearing from people that they are completely fed up — Republicans, Democrats, independents, no party affiliation,” Dalton said. “They know that this guy has no business being anywhere near Congress. This guy’s got no business being anywhere near being in charge of anything, and they are looking for a better choice, and I’m here to give it to them.”

Democrats pegged much of their 2024 strategy on arguing President Donald Trump was an existential threat to democracy. That message failed to persuade key independent voters to abandon Trump and Republicans downballot, resulting in a GOP trifecta. So this cycle, Democrats are wary of pinning their 2026 strategy too heavily on just running against Republicans without offering a compelling, affirmative vision.

Molder said that when he talks to voters, “They feel as though Andy Ogles is not representing their district, that he is in D.C. for the wrong reasons and his own agenda, instead of the agenda of the district as a whole. But I’ve also been hearing, and what I truly believe, is that people don’t just want to vote against someone, they want to vote for something.”