Democrats Are Split on What the Illinois Senate Primary Means for Immigration Messaging

After a close Democratic Senate primary in Illinois ended with the most progressive candidate winning the race, what it could mean for the Democratic Party’s messaging heading into November depends entirely on whom you ask.

Some Democratic lawmakers say that Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s victory on Tuesday, fueled by her blunt call to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a memorable ad that said, “Fuck Trump, vote Juliana,” is a sign that the party’s base is craving a harsher fight against the Trump administration.

But Democrats are still split over the best approach, especially on immigration enforcement. A recent poll found that 58% of Americans disapproved of President Donald Trump’s handling of immigration. With only 40% approving, it’s leading to the worst ratings he’s had on immigration in his second term.

What’s key is voters don’t necessarily trust that Democrats could handle it better. When asked who could do a better job at handling immigration, 38% said they trusted Trump more, 34% trusted congressional Democrats more and 24% trusted neither.

Stratton beat sitting House members Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly with the blunt “abolish ICE” pledge, but also benefitted from the backing of the wealthy governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker.

“Voters are desperate for the kind of leadership that is willing to spend less time trying to be diplomatic or politically correct and more time speaking and saying it how it is,” Rep. Delia Ramirez, a progressive from Illinois, said in an interview. “They’re tired of filibuster excuses. They’re tired of excuses that we don’t have enough votes because they’ve seen what Donald Trump can do with a very slim margin.”

Ramirez added, “The Democratic base wanted the most progressive, most charismatic candidate,” and argued that Stratton spoke matter-of-factly about eliminating ICE while “others talk around it a little bit more.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who endorsed Stratton in the primary over her fellow members of Congress, agreed, and said her message about immigration enforcement was a defining reason she broke through to voters in a tough primary.

“She connected with the people of Illinois, and that’s a very important measure of what’s happening in this country,” Warren said. “Americans don’t like seeing any law enforcement agency pull people out of cars and throw them to the ground, tear gas little babies and shoot people in broad daylight.”

Other progressives on the Hill said Stratton’s win was proof their strategy is the strongest playbook Democrats have for November.

“I think progressives are rising right now in our primaries all across the country,” said Rep. Greg Casar, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. He pointed to the group’s recent three-for-three record in special elections in Texas, New Jersey and Arizona. “So to me, it’s no surprise that the really progressive messaging was successful in the Senate race as well.”

But not every Democrat is ready to draw sweeping lessons from a deep-blue state primary.

Sen. Ruben Gallego, who flipped a traditionally red Arizona seat in 2024, offered the sharpest pushback. He pointed to the very different political environments in blue states than in battleground ones.

“Well, maybe it’s the party message when you win primaries. And I think that probably works in places like Illinois,” he said. “But when we take the majority, we have taken majorities in places like my state … sometimes those messages may win in those very, very Democratic primaries, but we always got to keep our eye on the big picture. We don’t win some of these hard-to-win states, we don’t govern.”

Rep. Brad Schneider, the chair of the centrist New Democrat Coalition, framed his position around accountability for immigration enforcement operations, rather than abolition. “ICE is out of control. CBP is out of control,” he said. “What we’re asking of federal officials is the same thing we ask of our local police: to respect our residents, to treat people with the dignity they deserve, to defend the rule of law and uphold the Constitution.”

Casar, meanwhile, said that while messaging from Democrats on ICE sounds different depending on the district and state, the goal to shift the debate remains the same. “I think we have to go on offense on immigration,” he said. “Folks can use the words that they want to use, but what we need to communicate to voters is that what has been happening is unacceptable, and Democrats have a plan that is legal, orderly and lawful.”

But Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez cautioned against reading the result as purely ideological, noting that execution matters as much as the message.

“It’s not just about the message,” she said. “A lot of it comes down to the fundamentals of how we deliver that message. I think it’s multidimensional.”