If Democrats are going to take back the Senate majority, they’ll have to pull off some long-shot wins in 2026. In their minds, Iowa may be the most likely of the unlikely.
The campaign arm for Senate Democrats and allied activist groups have started targeting Sen. Joni Ernst, the state’s Republican incumbent who’s up for reelection next year. They’re bashing her vote for the GOP’s marquee reconciliation bill, hammering her on Medicaid cuts and calling her ethics into question.
Still, taking down Ernst — or another Republican, if Ernst opts not to run for reelection — would be an undeniably difficult task in a state that’s trended increasingly red over the past decade.
Republicans say they aren’t too worried — for now.
When NOTUS asked fellow Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley about Democrats eying the seat, he insisted that Democrats were “joking.”
When NOTUS asked a follow-up question, Grassley once again chimed in: “They’re dreaming.”
But Democrats contend it’s their job to lay the groundwork to win in red states.
When NOTUS asked Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin about Iowa’s Senate seat, he said Democrats were “taking many of these states seriously.”
“The numbers in the early days of the Trump administration give us some encouragement,” Durbin said.
But it’s not just encouraging poll numbers that are prompting Democrats to look at Iowa; there’s also some other math.
Senate Democrats currently have 47 seats. They’d need 51 to take back the majority, and most election handicappers agree that the two best pickup opportunities are North Carolina and Maine.
Beyond those two, the map is murky. Democrats would need two more flips, while defending all of their incumbents and an open seat in Michigan, to even have a shot.
Many Democrats believe Ohio could be competitive if a high-profile name like former Sen. Sherrod Brown hopped in the race. He’s reportedly considering doing so.
Other Democrats see Texas as a potential pickup opportunity, particularly if scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the messy GOP primary.
Some Democrats have also hinted that Alaska’s Senate seat has potential, with incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan up for reelection, though much of that wishcasting appears to depend on whether former Rep. Mary Peltola enters the race.
But to hear Democrats tell it, Iowa has advantages. Its massive agriculture industry has been harshly threatened by Trump’s tariffs, with new trade barriers placing burdens on farming exports. Its aging population is among those at risk of hits to government health care and Social Security. And Ernst’s recent hiccups don’t particularly help.
When a constituent raised a concern that the Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s reconciliation bill would result in people dying, Ernst brushed it off by noting that, “We’re all going to die.”
A ProPublica report in March also unveiled a series of ethical questions surrounding her relationships with military officials who also lobbied before the Senate Armed Services Committee, of which she is a member. She was not married at the time, and it was not against Senate rules for lawmakers to be romantically involved with individuals who work or lobby in their policy subject areas, but the situation raised some questions that Ernst would likely prefer to avoid.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle told NOTUS in a statement that Ernst’s “callous attitude towards Iowans’ health care, her history of corruption and ethics issues in the Senate, and her vote to cut Medicaid to deliver tax giveaways to the wealthy all make her incredibly vulnerable in 2026.”
While that all gives Democrats some hope, there’s also the numbers.
Iowa voted for a Democratic president in 2000, 2008 and 2012. And the state had a Democratic senator as recently as 2015, when former Sen. Tom Harkin opted to retire. But since then, Iowa has gotten even redder.
The state went for Republicans in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential races. In 2020, Ernst won reelection by more than 6 percentage points. In 2022, Grassley won reelection by more than 12 percentage points. And the state has elected Republican governors the last three cycles.
The nonpartisan polling group Cook Political Report rates Ernst’s seat as “likely Republican.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez told NOTUS that “Democrats have historically low unpopularity at 19% and this Democrat primary in Iowa will be a race to the bottom as the candidates all fight each other to prove which is more aligned with their radical base.”
That Democratic primary is still shaping up. A handful of candidates have hopped in, hoping for a chance to take on Ernst or another Republican. Other Democrats are expected to do the same.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be tasked with building the massive infrastructure needed to win an election, in a state where the party has largely been cast aside.
Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines School Board, is the latest Democrat to jump in the primary. She said building that sort of infrastructure is possible, even through little things like getting back to the Iowa political tradition of visiting all 99 counties or getting more Democrats registered to vote.
“We don’t do enough listening,” Norris said. “Politicians do a lot of talking, and so reconnecting with people, showing up, respecting listening, those are the core components of what needs to be done here in Iowa.”
Republicans, of course, rebut that logic.
Ernst’s campaign manager, Bryan Kraber, told NOTUS in a statement that “Iowa is ruby red because Republicans like Joni Ernst fight for policies that unleash the economy, lower taxes, stand up for farmers, and make our communities safer.”
He added that, “as Democrats fearmonger, Iowans see through their political plays and will always choose a strong conservative like Joni Ernst over paying higher taxes or pure hogwash like allowing men in women’s sports.”
But looming over the race is another Republican: Donald Trump. The president’s unpopularity could play a major role in the midterms, particularly given the historical trend of voters siding against the party in power.