Senate Democrats Think They Have a Shot in Iowa. Republicans Think They’re ‘Joking.’

The campaign arm for Senate Democrats argues Sen. Joni Ernst is “incredibly vulnerable” in 2026.

Joni Ernst
Sen. Joni Ernst speaks during a news conference after the senate luncheon in the U.S. Capitol. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP

If Democrats are going to take back the Senate majority, they’ll have to pull off some long-shot wins in 2026. In their minds, Iowa may be the most likely of the unlikely.

The campaign arm for Senate Democrats and allied activist groups have started targeting Sen. Joni Ernst, the state’s Republican incumbent who’s up for reelection next year. They’re bashing her vote for the GOP’s marquee reconciliation bill, hammering her on Medicaid cuts and calling her ethics into question.

Still, taking down Ernst — or another Republican, if Ernst opts not to run for reelection — would be an undeniably difficult task in a state that’s trended increasingly red over the past decade.