Responding to Trump’s ICE Blitz Puts Republicans in a Messaging Quagmire

President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda is becoming a messaging headache for other members of his party.

Immigration is typically an issue that Republicans can count on to score easy points on the campaign trail. But after two U.S. citizens were fatally shot by federal agents in Minnesota this month, Republicans are having to make real-time decisions about how and whether to break with the Trump administration as they think ahead to the midterms.

And Republicans who are running still have no consensus on their response.

“My sense is that most candidates, with the exception of a few, will defer to the feds and probably default to other issues,” Brandon Scholz, a former Republican turned independent analyst in Wisconsin, told NOTUS. “Engaging in a red hot poker issue like we have now probably doesn’t get a candidate anywhere positively with voters.”

Even though Republicans have been eager to express support for Trump’s immigration policies, Scholz said he wouldn’t advise candidates to start calling for an Immigration and Customs Enforcement surge in their own cities anytime soon.

There’s real unease among Republicans on the topic, said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist, and they are searching for the right tone to strike. Heye added that a Republican member from a safe district in his home state of North Carolina emailed him to ask, “What should I say?”

Heye suggested using the administration’s talking points, like calling for an investigation.

“Trump has said he’s not happy with what he’s seen,” he said. “So you can use some of that language to put you in the direction of where you may need to be. You don’t owe anything to Kristi Noem. You don’t owe anything to Bovino.”

Heye warned against inflammatory rhetoric, like the initial language Stephen Miller used in response to the killing of Alex Pretti.

“If you’re out there saying, ‘This guy was an assassin and Tim Walz is a loser,’ then how do you convince your constituents that you’re a serious person?” he said.

Candidates facing tough races have largely steered clear of that type of language. But there are signs of how much they are wrestling with what to say instead.

Republicans in newly drawn districts in Texas that are home to large Hispanic voter constituencies, for example, are trying to balance the Trump administration’s hard-line immigration stance with the growing unpopularity of enforcement operations.

In Minnesota, a top GOP contender for governor dropped out of the race, saying he couldn’t run under a party that let ICE’s tactics go this far.

Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is running for governor in Wisconsin, gave an interview on Fox Business the week before Pretti’s death in which he cited examples of immigrants accused of crimes in Wisconsin. He vowed to “ban” sanctuary designations for cities.

But in recent days, Tiffany has pivoted back to posting about rooting out state agency fraud and lowering property taxes. Tiffany’s campaign sent a statement saying that “law enforcement at every level should work together to keep Wisconsin and America safe by removing criminal illegal aliens.”

Even as some strategists are warning there could be political repercussions, some candidates have echoed the administration’s lines, leaning in to support Trump.

Laurie Buckhout, a Republican running to flip Rep. Don Davis’ seat in North Carolina, said in a statement to NOTUS that she stands fully behind Trump and border czar Tom Homan.

“We await the full facts from Minnesota, but this mission cannot stop,” Buckhout said. “President Trump has my complete support to continue his work to keep us safe.”

Also in North Carolina, Michael Whatley, the Republican front-runner in North Carolina’s marquee Senate race, expressed support of ICE.

“ICE and federal law enforcement officers put their lives on the line every day to protect our communities, and they deserve support, not political attacks from elected leaders,” Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair, said in a statement to NOTUS.

Meanwhile, Rep. Buddy Carter, who is running for Sen. Jon Ossoff’s seat in Georgia, called on Monday for ICE agents to go to Atlanta.

“It’s time to send ICE to Atlanta so we can get these criminals off our streets. Arrest them. Deport them. Enforce the law,” Carter said on social media.

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella told NOTUS in a statement that Republicans are ready to champion Trump’s immigration agenda in the midterms if Democrats make it a sticking point.

“If Democrats want to make the midterm elections a referendum on immigration and public safety, we welcome that fight any day of the week,” Marinella said. “President Trump and House Republicans have fixed the border disaster left behind by Democrats, and voters are feeling that with safer communities and knowing violent criminals are off the streets.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee and Republican Governors Association did not respond to requests for comment.

Other candidates in competitive races have in recent days been less full-throated in their support of Trump’s immigration enforcement. Rep. Tom Barrett, who is running for reelection in a toss-up district in Michigan, said law-enforcement officers must be able to do their job without criminal interference but also called for more transparency in a statement and said he supported body-worn cameras for immigration officers.

“The loss of human life is always a tragedy, and I’m saddened by the death of Alex Pretti. I support a full, thorough investigation into the shooting based on facts — not emotion,” Barrett said.

A week after Pretti’s death, some Republicans have already turned back to other core issues: the cost of living and tax cuts, and their records on those things.

The top issue for voters is the economy, said Paul Shumaker, a Republican consultant working on Rep. Chuck Edwards’ reelection campaign.

“Economics is a driving factor with swing-voting unaffiliateds. It’s also a driving factor with small segments of conservative Democrats that are still here in North Carolina,” Shumaker said.

But while Republicans will still have to cater to their conservative base by addressing immigration issues, Shumaker said immigration is “also an effort that has to build voter intensity for the base while not overly stoking anger on the left.”

Strategists agreed that immigration is unlikely to be a driving issue in November.

But Heye said the tragedy in Minnesota still has political effects now.

“It’s a driver of donations right now. It’s a drive of Democratic voter intensity. It’s certainly a driver of turning independents off Trump,” Heye said.

“But you know, we’re in January, and the election’s in November.”