Sen. Darline Graham is facing an uphill climb to win Tuesday’s runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina) and secure a full six-year term in her late brother’s seat.
Graham, a political neophyte and the sister of Lindsey Graham, came ahead of Norman and more than a half-dozen candidates in the primary two weeks ago — but there’s a chance that may have been her high-water mark.
According to multiple Republican sources, a Graham victory is viewed as increasingly unlikely, with her debate gaffe last week, in which she said she was “not that informed on national security,” only making matters worse. That she’s now perceived to be in such bad standing is a surprise to many in the party given that President Donald Trump has endorsed her and campaigned on her behalf.
“You’re running a campaign with a virtual unknown that took on all of her brother’s unfavorables without any of the goodwill that her brother has in a very short-sprint special election,” one Republican operative with experience in South Carolina races told NOTUS. Figuring out why she’s in the bad position many Republicans believe her to be in, they added, “isn’t rocket science.”
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Public polling has been scant. A Trafalgar Group poll of the race released late Monday showed the two candidates deadlocked at 48% each with a 2.9% margin of error.
A separate survey, obtained by NOTUS, of likely voters late last week and over the weekend from pollsters who support Norman found the lawmaker holding a high-single-digit lead over Graham. The lack of public information gathered by neutral pollsters, however, has left many Republicans to go off of vibes.
“Tomorrow’s election is the biggest black box in recent memory here,” said one South Carolina-based Republican operative, who is not involved in the runoff.
Graham, who has only been in the Senate since mid-July, had a very short timeline on which to grieve her brother’s death, learn the ins and outs of the upper chamber and decide to seek a full term.
Despite her famous political last name and Trump’s backing, Graham has encountered a difficult start to life in the spotlight.
While her brother was a powerful presence in the Senate, his popularity and support were not a given in South Carolina. He spent heavily in the lead-up to the June primary to ensure he cleared the 50% benchmark to avoid a runoff because he had drawn the ire of some conservatives who believed his stances were out of touch.
As his popularity started to flag, it became even less likely that his star power in conservative circles would translate to his sister.
“Her only good is hyper-engaged Trump voters. There is no Darline Graham voter,” the Republican operative who’s worked on South Carolina races said. “No one’s voting for Darline because of Darline.”
Graham’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Graham also lacks a record, which has left voters and other Republicans confused about where she stands on most issues. She’s attempted to appeal to Republicans by co-sponsoring a number of measures, including anti-abortion legislation and the SAVE America Act, the voting-restriction legislation that is a priority for Trump and many conservatives.
Her lack of policy chops showed up in a big way on Tuesday, when she flubbed a question about whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are national security issues for the U.S. She told debate moderator Greta Van Susteren that she is “not that informed on national security.”
“But I do support the military,” she said after pausing for a few seconds. “I’m not a polished politician. National security is not my thing.”
That response has gotten a chilly reception from many in the party who believe the exchange only emphasized her lack of experience. The South Carolina-based Republican operative said that the low-propensity voters she did well with in the primary, many of whom were driven by Trump’s endorsement and favorable coverage on Fox News, have fallen off in backing her.
“The trend line has not been good,” the operative said, noting that many of those low-propensity voters are driven in part by day-to-day news. “It’s just not a good headline.”
Some of her colleagues were also taken aback by the remark. When asked what their initial reaction to the debate blunder was, one Senate Republican was curt.
“Fire the debate preppers,” they said, adding that upon Graham’s decision to seek the full term, she should have been studying these sorts of issues. “Anybody with a couple of weeks should have been ready enough for that debate, and there was no evidence of ready in that debate.”
“You don’t have to be an expert,” the member continued. “But you have to have a working knowledge.”
Norman — a staunch conservative who has clashed with his party on spending — has, by contrast, attempted to sell his experience to voters.
“My record is my biggest asset,” he told The New York Times. “I’m a known quantity.”
Beyond her name ID, Graham does have some things going for her. Leading that is the president’s blessing and active support in the final days. He headlined a rally for her in Myrtle Beach on Friday, coupled with a tele-rally on her behalf on Monday night.
Outside groups have also thrown in the lot for Graham. Super PACs and other groups have plowed more than $6 million onto the airwaves to boost her, according to ad data obtained by NOTUS.
Graham also spent Monday campaigning with South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, who threw his support behind her late last week. During a press conference alongside him, she tried to push back on the attacks against her lack of experience
“When people talk about [that] I don’t have any experience, that’s just not true,” Graham said, pointing to her work atop the South Carolina Commission for the Blind and her initial votes after being sworn in. “I feel like I’ve done more … in 20 days than he has done in 20 years.”
As for Norman, his campaign, which he has largely self-funded, has spent more than $1.5 million on ads. Norman also self-funded much of his failed gubernatorial campaign, which only concluded in early June when he finished in third place in the primary.
Operatives noted that Norman is uniquely difficult to run against in a state as red as South Carolina, especially given the structure of a two-week campaign.
“He can always outflank you to the right,” said the Republican operative who’s worked on South Carolina races, pointing to his “likable” personality and that Trump has barely criticized him ahead of Tuesday.
“All of the negatives have already been used against him,” they continued, referring to the governor’s race. “Changing a lot of minds is really challenging.”
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