Republican Sen. John Cornyn narrowly leads a hypothetical three-way primary in Texas, according to a new poll from a GOP group supporting Cornyn, in what his supporters say is more proof that he could hold off a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Cornyn received support from 32% of Republican primary voters in the survey, narrowly besting Paxton, who drew 31% support. A third potential candidate, Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt, registered 17% support.
Hunt has not entered the race, but Republicans in Texas and Washington think he is considering a late entry into the contest. The poll indicates that if Hunt does run, he would start at a disadvantage to his two opponents.
The survey was commissioned by One Nation, a non-profit group tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune. It was included in a memo obtained by NOTUS on Wednesday from the Thune-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund.
It also found that Cornyn and Paxton are now tied in a head-to-head matchup, with each candidate drawing 39% of the vote. Another 21% of voters are undecided in the race, the poll found.
The new poll was positive news for Cornyn after more troubling findings from the same group earlier this year. A One Nation poll of the primary in August had found Cornyn trailing Paxton by 8 percentage points. The group has spent $4.3 million in ads since that survey, spending it says has now helped Cornyn close the gap against his opponent.
Other polls from earlier this year showed Paxton leading Cornyn by a double-digit margin.
A Paxton adviser dismissed the poll’s findings.
“Cornyn’s general electability argument is a tired, pathetic ploy that didn’t work when he tried to stop President Trump in 2024 and it won’t work now against Ken Paxton,” said Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser. “Despite tens of millions in attacks throughout 2022, AG Paxton won his last general election by nearly 10 points and overperformed lackluster results we saw all across the country that cycle. You can really start to feel Cornyn’s desperation because he’s spent nearly $20 million to date, and is pushing polls he paid for where he can’t even establish a lead.”
The matchup between Cornyn and Paxton is one of the most closely watched of the 2026 midterm elections, with the attorney general trying to leverage his conservative bona fides and loyalty to President Donald Trump to convince voters that they should move on from the longtime incumbent Cornyn.
But the Republican political establishment in Washington, including the Senate Leadership Fund and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has rallied to Cornyn’s defense and believes that they can help him win his primary with the aid of millions of dollars in spending.
“It’s clear that Texans trust Senator Cornyn’s conservative record of working with President Trump and delivering for Texas and look forward to re-electing him in 2026,” said Chris Gustafson, Senate Leadership Fund’s communications director.
Republicans are defending Cornyn in part because they worry that Paxton would give Democrats an opportunity to make Texas’ Senate seat competitive next year.
Ragnar Research conducted the new One Nation survey of the primary from Sept. 20 to Sept. 22, and the survey has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
This article has been updated with a comment from Nick Maddux.