Democrats are facing an unusual obstacle in their push to create as many paths to a Senate majority as possible this fall: a Democratic nominee who refuses to quit.
Democrat Alani Bankhead is set to face Republican Kurt Alme in Montana’s Senate election — the kind of race that would be a reach for Democrats in a normal year but could be on the table in a favorable political environment this year. The problem is Democrats are rallying behind independent candidate Seth Bodnar, who they think actually makes that long shot a possibility.
But with both candidates running, beating Alme is nearly impossible.
“[Republicans] know that if it’s head-to-head between Bodnar and Alme, Bodnar wins the damn race,” former Montana Sen. Jon Tester, who has endorsed Bodnar, told NOTUS.
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Bankhead is livid with national party leadership, who she thinks is leaving her out to dry. In an interview with NOTUS, she accused Democratic leaders, nationally and in the state, of “using all their power and money to try to make Montanans accept the person that they pick.”
Bankhead alleges Tester has collaborated with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to circumvent the democratic process by backing a preferred candidate, an allegation Tester denies.
On top of that, it’s not even clear what would happen if Bankhead were to withdraw before next week’s Aug. 10 deadline. There’s a legal dispute, which lawyers briefed the state Democratic Party on, over whether the party would have to name a replacement for the party line should Bankhead quit. Bankhead has said repeatedly she is not considering exiting the race, “short of God” telling her to drop out.
“Montana law says no matter what — [even] if I die — the state party still has to replace me on the ballot,” Bankhead told NOTUS. “No, I’m not dropping out.”
In June, shortly after the Democratic primary, 17 state legislators wrote a letter to Bankhead and Bodnar, urging one of them to drop out.
“Every week that passes makes it more difficult to unify supporters, consolidate resources, and mount the strongest possible campaign for November,” the legislators wrote.
The lawmakers stopped short of supporting either candidate’s campaign.
“Based on the information currently available to us, Seth appears to have an advantage,” they wrote. “At the same time, we recognize that [Bankhead] has only recently secured the Democratic nomination.”
The state had at least one Democratic senator for a decade until 2024. But it’s not currently at the top of national Democrats’ priority list as they try to take the Senate majority in November.
“I’m just not tuned in on Montana,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) told NOTUS. “I’ve been doing Michigan and Minnesota and Georgia and North Carolina.”
Several of her colleagues involved in other Senate races echoed that sentiment, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont). But Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate majority, and some seats currently held by Democrats — including in Michigan — are in reach for Republicans, putting pressure on the party to devise multiple paths to victory.
Bankhead, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and counterintelligence agent who won the state’s Democratic primary with over 48,000 votes in June, faces myriad challenges.
Bankhead’s campaign had only raised just under $60,000 by the end of June compared to the more than $3.2 million Bodnar has raised since launching his campaign. Bankhead accuses the DSCC of “starving” her campaign of money — and she is facing mounting pressurefrom former Democratic leaders in the state to drop out.
A Tavern Research poll conducted in mid-June, showed an Alme-Bodnar tie in a hypothetical head-to-head, while Alme led Bankhead 56-44 in a hypothetical two-way race. Some polls show Bodnar leading Alme if Bankhead were to drop out.
There has been a run of Democratic Senate nominees withdrawing to clear the path for a two-way race with an independent candidate. Democratic nominees have dropped their campaigns in Nebraska, South Dakota and Idaho, giving a boost to independent candidates in each Republican-leaning state.
Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana and a West Point-trained former Green Beret, entered the race as an independent in late March. He has secured the endorsement of major Democratic-aligned groups, including Montana Conservation Voters and VoteVets — the largest progressive veterans’ organization in the U.S. The group previously supported Bankhead.
Bodnar also has been endorsed by Tester and former Democratic Sen. Max Baucus, among other leaders.
Bodnar’s campaign did not respond to NOTUS’ request for comment.
Bankhead described herself as being up against the entrenched party establishment.
“Old guard political leaders want to stay in power and control, and they’re trying to use the last bit of power that they have to wield their influence to maintain the status quo,” she told NOTUS.
Schumer’s office did not respond to NOTUS’ request for comment.
The DSCC referred NOTUS to theorganization’s comments to Semafor, where DSCC executive director Devan Barber said “The DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”
Montana’s Senate seat is open because Republican Sen. Steve Daines abruptly withdrew in March and endorsed Alme, who had filed to run the same day. Concerns over splitting the Democratic vote have local leaders convinced that keeping Bankhead on the ballot will hand Republicans an easy win in the state.
Bodnar, Tester said in the interview, is “the kind of person who’s willing to sit down and listen, and make a decision based on facts, not on conspiracy theories. And for that reason, he’s head and shoulders above the people who he’s running against.”
Tester also says Bodnar’s candidacy is viable not because he is an independent, but because “he is somebody that understands politics,” working families, high costs, agriculture and the “shit that this president with support of the Congress have done.”
While most Senate Democrats NOTUS spoke to repeatedly said they had not been paying close attention to the Montana race, some said they were relying on Tester to know the best path to contention in the state.
“I have a lot of respect for Tester, and so I kind of defer to him in terms of just what can be done,” Sen. Andy Kim of New Jersey told NOTUS.
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