Latinos Are the New Swing Voters

Latino voters swung right in the 2024 elections. Election Day 2025 revealed that they might not stick with Republicans after all.

Latinos played a decisive role in electing Democrats in two key states earlier this month — Virginia and New Jersey — not only cementing their place as one of the most consequential groups of voters, but also underscoring the unpredictability of one of the fastest-growing electorates.

Republicans are now trying to adjust their strategy with this bloc accordingly, as Democrats take the shift as a positive sign that voters more broadly are moving in their direction.

“We have to be in the addition business, not in the subtraction or division business, if we want to win elections,” GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a Latino lawmaker from the battleground state of Arizona, told NOTUS in an interview. “That will be the recipe for success here.”

In Virginia, data from NBC News revealed that 67% of Latinos voted for Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Data from CBS News showed that Democrats made significant gains in two Virginia counties that are more than 40% Latino: Manassas and Manassas Park. And in New Jersey, CBS revealed that 68% of Latino voters supported Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who carried Latino men and women alike, and even flipped 18% of Latino voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024.

Democrats see these wins as a referendum on Trump, specifically in regard to his “tough on immigration” stances and aggressive deportation policies.

“A couple Tuesdays ago was just the latest reminder you can not, should not, take Latino voters for granted,” California Sen. Alex Padilla told NOTUS. “Every two years the biggest question is, what about the Latino vote?”

Padilla said his constituents in California point to economic anxiety and immigration enforcement as the two decisive issues for the Latino community heading into the midterms.

“I think Latinos are once again open to the Democratic case and argument for the midterms, but it’s not going to come our way automatically,” Padilla said. “Trump spoke to them with a bunch of promises, and not only has he not made good on those promises, he’s made the situation worse.”

The issue of affordability was the number one concern for Latino voters, and the main campaign message from Democrats this election season. An ABC News exit poll found that about half of Virginia voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the state.

Clarissa Martínez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative at the nonprofit group UnidosUS, dismissed the idea that Latinos were ever going to stick with Republicans after the 2024 election.

“I often like to say that Latino voters are ni muy muy, ni tan tan, meaning they are not on the extremes, right?” she told reporters. “There’s always been a swing element to the Hispanic vote. You can call it swing. You can call it ticket splitting, where they may vote for the candidate of one party in one race and the candidate of another party in another race. And that has to do with not being in the extremes.”

Sen. Andy Kim, a Democrat from New Jersey, said success for Democrats in his state had to do with the issues Sherrill elevated that helped her win voters from across different demographics.

“What we saw was a lot of Latino voters in 2024 frustrated in New Jersey about the high cost,” he told NOTUS. “There were a number of issues that just felt like things weren’t working, and especially under Democratic leadership in the state. And the messaging about affordability that Trump was trying to push at the time was attractive, but the tariffs have been devastating.”

Kim also said New Jersey voters turned out to the polls as a response to Trump not fulfilling his campaign promises.

“The understanding that Trump not only hasn’t done really anything on affordability, in fact, has made things worse, was what I just kept hearing from the Latino community over the last couple weeks, leading to the election in New Jersey, which really showed that switch,” Kim said.

Democrats have repeatedly said in the weeks after the election that they plan to capitalize on their gains in November and hope that it’s a sign of what’s to come for them during the 2026 midterms.

“Latino voters have actually been incredibly consistent about what their needs and their concerns are,” said Nedia Morsy, executive director of Make the Road New Jersey. “I really do believe that what we are witnessing is Latino voters responding in real time to the identity crisis that parties are experiencing and the realignments that they’re sort of sifting through — but Latino voters have remained consistent.”