There’s little reason to think that a Democratic House candidate in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District would run any sort of competitive race there.
It’s currently represented by Rep. Andy Barr, who has served since 2013. President Donald Trump won the district in 2024 by 15 percentage points. And Republicans outnumber Democrats in voter registration by about 2,500 voters.
But national Democrats are so sure of their footing ahead of the November midterms that they’re prioritizing it — they recently signaled that they’re willing to pour in resources by adding it to its prized Red to Blue program. It’s one of the most ambitious seats that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is hoping to flip this November, and Democrats are banking on an angry electorate to do it.
“They’re going to vote for someone who they think is going to help their family and make their lives better, especially when it comes to issues of wages and jobs and affordability, and they don’t care about the party,” Zach Dembo, the Democrat running in the district, said in an interview. “There’s a strong independent streak that runs through this district.”
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This isn’t the only big reach by Democrats. Another one is Tennessee’s 5th District, which Trump won by about 23 percentage points. They’re also targeting solidly Republican districts where the incumbents carried baggage, like Rep. Cory Mills’ district in Florida (he lost his primary) and Rep. Nancy Mace’s district in South Carolina (she is not seeking reelection).
If Dembo or the Democrats running in those other districts manage to win in November or even come close, it would likely signal a broader sweep by Democrats nationally.
Barr vacated the seat to run for Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat in the Senate. The Republican nominee in the district is Ralph Alvarado, a Trump-endorsed candidate who is a former Kentucky state senator and former commissioner of health in Tennessee.
While a long shot for Democrats, even Alvarado’s campaign acknowledges the race could be much tighter than in the past. That it’s an open seat rather than a run against an incumbent is potentially a boost for Democrats.
“It’s very much a swing district, and this was always going to be a close race,” an adviser for Alvarado, who requested anonymity, told NOTUS.
Republicans are attacking Dembo as too far left for the district, as Democrats are seeing signs of promise in recent moves Alvarado has taken to distance himself from Trump.
For example, his website no longer mentions Trump in his biography. And a photo of him with the president was replaced on the website’s main page. The adviser said Alvarado is proud of the president’s endorsement, and the changes were made to highlight health care.
“In the general election he intends to talk about the cost of health care and how Zach Dembo will make it more expensive,” the adviser said. The adviser pointed out that the photo of Alvarado and the president remains on the website on another page.
The changes quickly became an attack line for DCCC, which framed it as an effort to “wipe away his ties to Trump.”
Alvarado’s campaign dismissed the changes to the website as having any real effect on the election.
“The socialists are going to have to do a lot better than this nonsense to win this district,” Andy Westberry, Alvarado’s campaign manager, said in a statement.
Dembo, a former federal prosecutor and Navy JAG officer, is making a pitch that Trump’s policies are hurting the red district. More than 25% of people in the district are on Medicaid, gas prices are high, and Canadian tariffs pose risk to the bourbon industry.
His campaign also points to how well Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear did in the district in his 2023 reelection bid. Dembo said he’s counting on Trump voters casting a ballot for him in November, like they did for Beshear.
“My approach to things is very much like Governor Beshear’s, which is a nonpartisan, mission-oriented, solutions-oriented idea of, how do we focus on what matters to people in their everyday lives?” Dembo said.
So just how much of a reach is it? Even Democrats in the district were surprised to see Dembo’s name on the Red to Blue list.
“We are gradually giving ourselves permission to feel optimistic,” said Kathy Werking, chair of the Bourbon County Democrats. “It’s like, is this really happening?”
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