Democratic leaders say they’re one step closer to winning in Texas, now that President Donald Trump has endorsed scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for Senate.

The question now is whether they’re close enough that it’s worth investing in a state where Democrats have consistently been disappointed in recent years.

If Paxton beats Sen. John Cornyn in next week’s Republican primary runoff, Democrats say they see a viable path to win a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades. State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee and a rising star inside the party, has already raised a record-breaking $27 million for his race.

For the first time, the flagship political action committee aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer signaled its willingness to jump in.

“We remain bullish about Texas, and there is every likelihood we’ll make a mark there,” Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement shared with NOTUS.

Democrats’ dream of turning Texas blue is still a longshot. Contesting Texas would require vast financial resources, and Democrats are currently losing the national fundraising race to Republicans. The GOP nomination isn’t settled yet, either: Cornyn came in first in the March primary, outperforming Republicans’ expectations, and could still prevail in the May 26 runoff despite Trump’s snub.

Even so, Democrats greeted Trump’s intervention in the runoff with jubilation. Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a former Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair, told NOTUS that Paxton, a darling of the MAGA movement, will “turn off a lot of independent voters, and Talarico has made it clear he wants to represent everyone in Texas, not just MAGA.”

Talarico, who won the March Democratic primary outright, said in a statement, “It doesn’t matter who wins this runoff. We already know who we’re running against: the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt political system.”

Officials at the DSCC, Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, expressed confidence that they could make a real push to flip the seat.

“Republicans are watching $100 million circle down the drain before their eyes as Donald Trump rejects their year of begging him to bail out John Cornyn,” spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a statement after the endorsement. “While the Texas GOP has been embroiled in a ‘bitter,’ ‘costly intraparty war’ that has fractured their base and left them drained of resources, Democratic enthusiasm has surged to its highest level in decades.”

Texas has slipped away from Senate Democrats in other recent elections, despite great hype and expectations. Democrat Beto O’Rourke lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by around 200,000 votes in 2018. Cornyn and Cruz comfortably beat their Democratic opponents in 2020 and 2024.

Nationwide, Democrats are already trying to flip at least four GOP-held Senate seats this year, and adding a fifth target would threaten to stretch the party’s resources. Party insiders, however, are encouraged by Talarico’s fundraising prowess.

Talarico has raised $27 million in the first quarter of 2026, including $10 million after his primary victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

One Democratic donor told NOTUS that Talarcio “had a lane before, but it grew today.”

There are still plenty of skeptics.

“I’ve got some donors who went all in on James early, and are still all in. Others who, every time someone mentions Texas, they roll their eyes. It’s a mixed bag among the donor class,” said a Democratic donor adviser. “For the DSCC and SMP, I don’t think they’re looking to put in more money in Texas versus other states where you have a better chance.”

That resource calculation — does investing in Texas siphon off cash for other battleground states? — cuts to the core of Democrats’ challenge. Some Democratic operatives grumble that focusing on Texas could mean neglecting states that have more recently elected Democrats statewide.

“Anyone who is going to leapfrog Texas Senate over Alaska or Maine or Iowa needs to ask themselves, ‘Hey, what’s the proper resource allocation here? What’s the best ROI?’” said a Democratic bundler. “You can easily burn nine figures in Texas and lose by five or six points. We have limited resources this cycle, more limited than you’d expect, so we have to think very wisely about how we’re spending those resources.”

Schumer did not include Texas as one of his top pickup opportunities earlier this year. Instead, the longtime Democratic leader said the party was focused primarily on races for Republican seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska.