Less than 100 days into Donald Trump’s presidency, Democrats are already expressing confidence that they will have big wins in the 2026 midterms. But if Democrats are going to retake the Senate, they need to flip four seats — and there are two states that Democrats considered competitive last year that already look like uphill climbs: Florida and Texas.
Last year’s Senate map was a lousy one for Democrats. They were playing defense in half a dozen states and there were virtually no pickup opportunities other than Florida and Texas, where they challenged incumbent GOP Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz.
Democrats spent millions between the two states. And toward the end of the cycle, there were questions of whether they’d consolidate efforts in one state or the other. They did not.
In the end, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell lost Florida by almost 13 percentage points and former Rep. Colin Allred lost Texas by 9 percentage points.
The map for Democrats in 2026 also isn’t spectacular. They have two outright pickup opportunities in North Carolina and Maine. Ohio could be competitive, particularly if former Sen. Sherrod Brown opts to run against recently appointed Sen. Jon Husted.
That means Democrats would need to flip a fourth state to have a shot at taking back the Senate majority. But Texas and Florida are hardly being cast as the plausible opportunities that Democrats framed them as last cycle.
The Cook Political Report rates both Texas and Florida as “Solid R” seats. Both states are particularly expensive to run in, given their size and the number of media markets in each. But the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in at least one instance in January teased that there were “BIG special elections coming in Ohio and Florida” in a fundraising text.
But in the broad scope of 2026 — though it’s still shaping up — both Texas and Florida’s Senate seats are hardly drawing Democratic buzz.
DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle wrote in a statement that “Democrats have a map full of offensive opportunities and will look for every opportunity to put Republicans on defense as they are forced to defend their toxic plans to threaten Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and push reckless tariffs that spike costs for families.”
Still, lackluster hype around the races is reflected in candidate recruitment. While high-name-ID Democratic candidates are launching bids in Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina, Texas and Florida’s fields are fairly open.
In Texas, Democrats who may run include San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg and Texas state Rep. James Talarico. There are also murmurs that Allred might run again. He is “seriously considering” a bid. His allies argue he’d have the best chance of winning next cycle after outpacing Kamala Harris in 251 of 254 counties.
In Florida, a number of state Democrats seem to be considering a run for governor, while the Senate field is practically a ghost town.
“It’s a tough recruitment environment,” said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, adding that “it’s hard to convince somebody who’s currently in office to take that risk right now.”
“The folks I would consider to be serious nominees, most of them are sitting out,” he said.
John Morgan, a prominent Florida lawyer and Democratic mega-donor, told NOTUS that at the moment, he doesn’t think Democrats “have any chance” of being competitive in the Florida Senate race next year.
“The registration gap is too big,” he said. “It would have to be a unique candidate and not a politician.”
Morgan is rumored to be considering a run to replace Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is term limited. He has also said he plans to launch a third party. But he told NOTUS he is not interested in a spot in the Senate, lamenting that “two people from each party control everything.”
Many Democrats stop short of saying they have no shot of winning Texas or Florida, noting that the Republican primaries still need to be worked out in both states.
In Texas, an expensive and ugly primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is underway. That race is bound to suck up GOP dollars and resources. What’s more, Democrats could be more competitive against Paxton, who’s running to Cornyn’s right, should he win the nomination.
“You’ve seen a huge amount of variance from election cycle to election cycle over the past 15 or 20 years, just like a lot of volatility,” said Luke Warford, founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a group that is trying to establish a stronger Democratic ground game in Texas.
“Everyone’s talking about who’s going to run for this race, and that’s incredibly important,” Warford said. “But it’s also important to be recruiting candidates to run down-ballot and having a good message.”
In Florida, recently appointed Sen. Ashley Moody has filed to run for reelection and has racked up early endorsements, including one from fellow Florida Sen. Rick Scott. But Rep. Cory Mills has suggested he plans to run for the seat as well, potentially sparking a testy primary contest.
Overall, Democrats are hopeful that, by the time next November rolls around, they’ll be dealing with a drastically different political environment. President Donald Trump will be two years into his second term — and midterms after a presidential election typically favor the minority party.
Abandoning Florida and Texas now could indeed have long-term consequences. Florida has the fastest-growing population of any state in the U.S., closely followed by Texas. That means the 2030 census could grant both states increased congressional representation.
Moving away from Democratic infrastructure building in Florida and Texas could mean having less ground game ready should those new seats come to fruition.
“If you want to be in a place where you can win congressional seats in places like Florida or Texas or North Carolina, Georgia — these places are all going to add seats — you’ve got to start investing in infrastructure and trying to make the environment better,” Schale said.
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Ursula Perano and Daniella Diaz are reporters at NOTUS.