Senate Democrats are trying to recruit Mary Peltola, the one candidate they think can make next year’s race in Alaska competitive. But the former congresswoman hasn’t said “yes” — yet — in part because she hasn’t ruled out a different statewide run.
With high name recognition, the proven political chops to build a winning coalition in Alaska and a national fundraising machine behind her, the former lawmaker is the Democratic Party’s undisputed favorite candidate to run for governor, Senate or House.
As she hasn’t made a public indication about her 2026 plans, trying to figure out what Peltola will decide has become a favorite parlor game in Alaska political circles.
“There’s mounting pressure from people in state for her to declare for governor,” Alaska political strategist Jim Lottsfeldt told NOTUS. “There’s mounting pressure from people out of state for her to declare for U.S. senator. And everything in politics is creating mounting pressure for her to say, ‘I’m not going to run for anything; this is nuts.’”
If Peltola jumps into a race — whichever race that is — her candidacy would be a big boost for Democrats. But the conventional wisdom among Alaska and national Democrats is that Peltola’s starpower would be best deployed in high-profile Senate or governor’s races.
With Alaska’s Republican governor, Mike Dunleavy, term limited, she could enter an open governor’s race without a clear front-runner, effectively clearing the Democratic field. In the Senate, she’d be taking on well-established Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who for more than a decade has delivered on funding and policies for Alaskan priorities while building a Donald Trump-aligned record in a state that broke for the president by 13 percentage points.
But Democrats say the chance for Peltola to help her party win seats in the Senate, including possibly the majority, is also enticing. As for what direction she is leaning, however, it’s anyone’s guess.
“In the political world, sure, the speculation is: What is Mary Peltola going to do,” a former senior aide in Peltola’s House office, Larry Persily, told NOTUS.
Early indications suggest Peltola is seriously mulling a run for office. Peltola’s former chief of staff, campaign manager and close ally, Anton McParland, told NOTUS in March that he would be surprised if “she doesn’t eventually, in some way or form — and probably running for office — try to continue serving the interests of Alaskans.”
More recently, NOTUS reported, she sent out a fundraising text blast requesting a $25 donation split between her and the Alaska Democratic Party.
“Since leaving Congress, I’ve been able to catch up with family, friends, and loved ones who I haven’t seen in a while. I’d be lying if I said I’m not enjoying life right now,” the text said. “But I’d also be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about Alaska and our country’s future.”
“Just recently, President Trump and Republicans cut Medicaid and funding for rural radio, which is critical here in Alaska,” she added. “I’m outraged, and so are Alaskans in every region of the state.”
“Given all this, I’m considering how I can best serve Alaskans,” she said. “And yes, that means I’m considering a run for elected office (you’ll be the first to know when a decision is made!).”
Privately, some Democrats in the state say that even if Peltola hasn’t made a decision yet, they think the odds she runs for Senate have risen significantly since the year began, in part because of the way national Democrats have leaned on her to consider a campaign. Axios reported earlier this month that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is quietly pressing Peltola.
“In February, I would have bet a large sum of money that she wasn’t running for governor,” an Alaska Democratic official said, granted anonymity to speak candidly about a sensitive issue. “In April, I would no longer have made that bet. And now, I wouldn’t bet a large amount of money, but if I had to pick, I would say she is running for Senate.”
If Peltola decides to run for Senate, she would be the latest recruitment success for Senate Democrats. In the last month, the party has seen former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio announce their own bids. Both were considered the most sought-after recruits for Senate Democrats in their respective states.
Democrats are also hopeful that Gov. Janet Mills of Maine will run, along with former Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana.
The party faces long odds of winning a Senate majority in 2026; Democrats would have to win a net of four seats in an election where only one Republican incumbent is defending a state Donald Trump lost last year.
But party strategists are hopeful that recruits like Peltola could make even deep-red states competitive, especially if the political environment turns sharply against Republicans. If Peltola runs, Democrats could make a credible argument to voters and donors that the Senate majority is in play, theoretically lifting campaign prospects across the map — even if Peltola ultimately loses.
No Democratic candidate for Senate has won Alaska since 2008, when former Sen. Mark Begich won his one and only term in the chamber. And Republicans say Sullivan is prepared for a reelection fight, starting July with nearly $4 million on hand.
There’s also the challenge that elements of the record Peltola touted during her 2024 House reelection bid overlaps with Sullivan. As members of the same congressional delegation for two years, they worked together on key Alaska initiatives — for example, securing approval for the massive oil development project known as Willow on the Alaska North Slope.
Of course, there is plenty of daylight between Peltola, a Democrat who regularly voted with her party in Congress, and Sullivan, who regularly votes for the Republican agenda — though both have bucked their parties on key votes. On Alaska-related issues like resource development and infrastructure, however, the two officials have collaborated.
A source close to Sullivan’s campaign also raised that if any Democrat mounted a serious challenge to the senator, he would be forced to mount a proportionally serious reelection bid. As a veteran campaigner, this source argued that Sullivan rolling out a robust campaign would help the other Republicans candidates on the 2026 ballot.
“The Senator is gearing up regardless and is placing a strong emphasis on fundraising and getting out in the state, meeting people and spinning up his campaign in a very real way,” this source said.
“There’s this realization that if Mary decides to run for Senate, in a world where she does that, and the senator has to kind of run a big, scary campaign — like he’s done in the past in 2014 when he beat Begich and in 2020 when he beat Al Gross — that will have some very clear down-ballot implications,” this source added.
Of course, the same logic could apply to Democrats. National investment in a Peltola Senate campaign could also help Democratic campaigns across the state.
Still, many in the Alaska political class said they believed Peltola was best positioned for a gubernatorial bid. Recent polling backs that assessment. A July Data for Progress poll shared with The 19th found that Peltola would have a “commanding” lead in the governor’s race.
Acknowledging the strength of her prospective gubernatorial bid, one Democratic candidate for governor, former state Sen. Tom Begich, announced that he would withdraw his campaign if Peltola decided to run for governor.
“Mary’s decision has always been her decision,” Begich told NOTUS. “I know a lot of Alaskans are eager to hear what’s next for her. She’s going to make that decision on her own timeline.”