When Alaska elected a Democrat three years ago to represent the state in the House of Representatives — for the first time in half a century — the party saw signs that the Republican grip over rural areas was loosening.
Mary Peltola, a former state legislator from a remote Alaskan city, offered a compelling model for how Democrats could make gains in rural districts. She ran on local issues, with indisputable Alaskan credentials, touting her background as a fisherwoman on the Kuskokwim River and as the proud owner of guns — 176 to be exact.
It was a model that Democrats also saw working for Reps. Jared Golden in Maine and Marie Gluesencamp Perez in Washington. And it was one that state and national Democrats hoped would buoy the 49-year-old Peltola to a lengthy, Don Young-style political career in Washington, where she quickly distanced herself from national topics and carefully broke with her party on Alaskan issues like a massive oil development project.
In 2024, national Democratic groups poured millions into Peltola’s reelection bid, championing her as a poster child for Democratic gains with rural voters and hoping her unique brand could elevate her above the red wave that was poised to sink other vulnerable Democrats. She ran nearly 10 percentage points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.
But Peltola still lost to Republican candidate Nick Begich. And even though it was close — they were around two points of each other — it was still a gut-punch for Democrats.
While Alaska is rife with idiosyncrasies that defy extrapolation to the so-called Lower 48 — its ranked choice voting system among the many quirks — Peltola’s loss tested the outer extremes of the Democratic Party’s rural strategy. So as the party explores investments in the 2026 races for the open governor’s seat and against Sen. Dan Sullivan and Begich, they’re reckoning with whether they can recreate the magic.
Or if it’s worth trying at all.
“It was more of an aberration than a bright spot,” longtime Alaska political operative Larry Persily — who worked as a senior policy advisor for Peltola — said of his old boss’ win.
“The sun, the star and the moon aligned in 2022,” he told NOTUS, adding that 2026 would be “a big lift for Democrats.”
Persily and other Alaska political veterans are quick to note that Peltola’s entry into any of the statewide races would make them competitive given her high name recognition and popularity. But early ratings from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report back up Persily’s analysis that Democrats are up against it. The nonpartisan election handicappers at Cook rate Sullivan’s seat as “solid Republican.” (They deemed Begich’s seat — which they considered a “lean Democrat” in 2023 — as “likely Republican.”)
As the political landscape now becomes more favorable to Republicans, Cook Political Report House editor Erin Covey credited Peltola’s focus on local issues with the success she did have outrunning the rest of her party in the state.
“Peltola ran in a way that other Democrats who have had success in more rural districts have run, which is basically just to kind of ignore the national party as much as possible and focus really heavily on local issues,” Covey told NOTUS.
As Democrats struggle to unify behind a party message after their 2024 losses, Alex Ortiz, Peltola’s first chief of staff — who served in the same role for Young — said he thinks Peltola’s style can still serve as a roadmap for Democrats.
“For red districts, there is a power in Democratic candidates who have a special X factor in their character that connects with voters,” Ortiz told NOTUS. “In Alaska we saw it with ‘Mary Magic’ — her famous disarming kindness and a way of being down-to-earth that is more fisherman than politician.”
But even with a campaign blueprint that’s shown some promise, Democrats have a short bench in Alaska outside of Peltola — though there are a few state legislators and local official names floating. Peltola is reportedly mulling a gubernatorial bid, but hasn’t publicly ruled out a challenge to Sullivan. (It’s worth noting that her new boss at a prominent Alaska lobbying shop, Jon Katchen, is a Sullivan ally.)
Peltola’s second chief of staff, campaign manager and close ally Anton McParland, told NOTUS he would be surprised if “she doesn’t eventually, in some way or form — and probably running for office — try to continue serving the interests of Alaskans.”
“But I do think that she is honestly taking a moment to make sense of how she could be most impactful,” he said.
While McParland acknowledged that there was “certainly no recreating 2022,” he said that was never the goal for 2024.
Given Peltola was then running as an incumbent, she spent more time focusing on her congressional record. Though McParland said Peltola’s record was resonating on the ground, the campaign expected that with Trump on the ballot, he would animate an additional 55,000-some Republican voters, particularly after the Democratic presidential ticket collapsed.
Still, he cited Peltola’s performance in some rural communities like Wrangell and Delta Junction as positive building blocks and signs not to give up yet on Democrats in Alaska.
“Going into 2026, I think that the best work we can do right now as a party, and amongst those people that are interested in running, is spending some time listening and talking to folks who haven’t felt seen by us,” he said.
Not everyone is as enthusiastic. For example, Lauren Harper Pope — the founder of the centrist Democratic Welcome PAC — said her committee is not planning any investments in Alaska statewide races.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not released its list of seats they are targeting to flip in 2026, though the group signaled in a statement that it isn’t entirely willing to let Begich’s 2024 win go just yet.
“By choosing to screw over Alaskan families and businesses to side with unelected billionaires like Musk, Begich is sealing his political fate in 2026,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told NOTUS, blasting the Department of Government Efficiency and his vote for a budget resolution that like tees up likely Medicaid cuts.
Begich shrugged off any Democratic threat in a brief interview with NOTUS this week, saying he wasn’t yet aware of any opponents. He took the opportunity to discuss a few of his early legislative victories related to Alaska.
“What we know is that the best politics is good policy,” Begich told NOTUS. “And we’re just going to keep advancing good policy.”
The comment was straight from the vintage Peltola playbook, focusing on local issues like Alaska Native corporations and demonstrating that both parties can recycle a campaign strategy primarily rooted in Alaska-related issues. (Although Begich hasn’t exactly shied away from President Donald Trump’s agenda like Peltola did with President Joe Biden, he likely will try to draw contrasts.)
But longshot investment from Democrats in Alaska political races is not without precedent. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed Alaska doctor Al Gross against Sullivan in 2020. And even though Gross proved to be a talented fundraiser, he came up 13 points short.
Since then, Sullivan has only extended his resume as a Trump ally and a reliable Republican vote, with backing from the state’s labor groups and powerful Alaska Native corporations.
As Sullivan announced his intent to run at a Republican women’s event in Fairbanks last week, he boasted the Trump administration’s early moves in the state — a far cry from his moderate counterpart Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s approach — and took a jab at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for having a “real bad week.”
Republican strategists told NOTUS that tone is likely an early preview of Sullivan’s proven campaign strategy.
“He and his team, both his personal office team and certainly his campaign team, are really excited about the Alaska-specific action the Trump administration is taking, and how beneficial that’s going to be to the state,” said a Republican strategist who has worked on Alaska races.
Sullivan is unlikely to face a serious GOP challenger from the left or the right. Still, the Democratic-aligned PAC Majority Forward has placed ads against Sullivan and a DSCC aide suggested the group isn’t ruling out investing against him.
“Democrats have a Senate map that is ripe with offensive opportunities, particularly when coupled with the building midterm backlash against Republicans,” the DSCC said in a statement.
With Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy term-limited, Democrats are perhaps more optimistic about winning a gubernatorial race — and are optimistic that the rural Democratic messaging that helped clinch governors’ mansions in red states like Kentucky with Gov. Andy Beshear could work in Alaska.
Democratic Governors Association Press Secretary Devon Cruz told NOTUS that the organization is “keeping a close eye on Alaska.”
“We believe this race can be competitive with a strong nominee who fits the state well,” Cruz said in a statement. “That’s been a winning playbook for Democratic governors in tough states like North Carolina, Kentucky, and Kansas in just the last few years, among others.”
But whether Democrats can successfully deploy that rhetorical playbook again in Alaska remains to be seen. Just the logistical challenges of the party recruiting, funding and staffing three statewide races would be a test that Alaska Democrats haven’t seriously faced in years.
Still, some Democrats focused on building momentum in rural areas said they aren’t willing to give up just yet.
Although she said the “numbers don’t look good at this time,” DNC Rural Council Chair Kylie Oversen told NOTUS that the Democratic Party “isn’t going to be giving up on any places right now just because they’re hard.”
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Riley Rogerson is a reporter at NOTUS.