Members of the Congressional Black Caucus are looking around their ranks and wondering who may not be returning to Congress in January.

In light of a Supreme Court ruling gutting a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, they’re expecting a decline in their membership as Republicans target districts represented by members of CBC in their redistricting efforts. They’re predicting a long-term setback for Black representation at all levels of government. And they’re planning what they can do to encourage Black voters to head to the polls this fall to push back.

“It’s an unbelievable scenario that we face,” Rep. Yvette Clarke, the chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, told NOTUS. “This will be the first time in my life where representation in Black communities are being totally undermined.”

Clarke added that the CBC is “prepared to do what it takes to make sure that people come out and vote.”

South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, a senior member of the House Democratic Caucus who has served in Congress since 1993, called the recent ruling the “new iteration of Jim Crow.” He said it will be more important than ever for Black voters to turn out in this year’s elections, in the face of Republican efforts to redraw congressional lines in the GOP’s favor.

“Either we can start voting as we have not been doing before, or we are going to live the same existence in this country as Black people that our grandparents and parents lived,” Clyburn told NOTUS. “You got to decide that I’m going to fight, I’m going to vote. Or, I’m going to sit down and talk about it.”

The Louisiana v. Callais decision that the Supreme Court delivered last week effectively unraveled voting power protections for minority groups. It has kicked off a scramble in Southern states to delay primaries and redistrict in favor of Republicans ahead of the midterms this fall — leaving several Black representatives in danger of losing their seats.

One of those representatives is Cleo Fields, a CBC member whose majority-Black district was at the center of the Supreme Court case.

“I tell people all the time, the issue is not whether or not I serve another day in Congress,” Fields told NOTUS. “The issue is whether or not a person like me will have the opportunity to serve in Congress. And that’s the big focus.”

Fields has been traveling throughout his district over recess to speak at town hall meetings about redistricting — and has been telling voters to cast ballots as normal in the state’s primary election despite Republican Gov. Jeff Landry’s efforts to suspend it. The fate of Louisiana’s May 16 primary date is up to the courts; early voting began on May 2.

In recent days, Landry has hinted at possible efforts to draw out one or both of the state’s two majority-Black districts.

“The Supreme Court has affirmed what we have said for years: drawing districts for political reasons is the States’ prerogative, not a federal civil-rights violation,” Landry posted on X after the court’s ruling. “Federal judges cannot force a State to engage in race-based redistricting, and plaintiffs can no longer repackage partisan disagreements as Voting Rights Act cases.”

In Alabama, Gov. Kay Ivey called a special session to consider redrawing congressional lines. And in Tennessee, Republicans unveiled a new congressional map proposal in which every district would favor Republicans.

Those immediate responses to the ruling could have ramifications in the 2026 midterms. Other Southern states, including Georgia, have said it’s too late to redistrict this year but they could do so before the 2028 elections. Democrats have been leading their own redistricting efforts in blue states for nearly a year, in response to Republican efforts to line up the maps in their favor.

This renewed redistricting push means the CBC is now in a position of having to defend many of its members in the face of newly redrawn districts that could dilute Black voices.

“We certainly expect efforts immediately to see those districts be the ones that get targeted, first and foremost. And so CBC is going to be very active in protecting its members, but more so in protecting the Voting Rights Act,” said Alabama Rep. Shomari Figures, who was first elected to Congress in 2024 after his state was required to create an additional majority-minority district.

“I think the moment right now is just further evidence of that sentiment that Republicans in this country are really invested in the idea of trying to reduce representation, particularly for minorities and obviously for Democrats as well,” added Figures, who said that current court orders protect his seat against any immediate redistricting efforts.

CBC lawmakers are not just thinking about the coming months, but how this ruling will play in the span of history.

“The reality of our experience, our journey, now more than 400 years, is that we view a setback — and this is one — but we view setbacks as nothing more than a setup for a comeback,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said during a press conference last week.

Some lawmakers who were already drawn out of their districts have decided to head for the exits, including Texas Rep. Marc Veasey, a CBC member who is retiring from Congress.

“You’re going to see a lot of young African Americans pull out of politics, because there’ll be fewer opportunities. And that’s just the bottom line,” Veasey said. “There will be fewer opportunities for Black people that want to represent Black voices to be able to advance in politics.”

“Obviously the number of members is going to dwindle, there’s no question about that,” Veasey said. “But that doesn’t mean CBC won’t be as potent of a force. The CBC will continue to be as potent of a force, and we’ll have to look for different ways that we can exercise our power, both within the CBC and by empowering the communities we represent.”

What it could mean is that some Black politicians rising in the Democratic Party will face much longer odds of making it to Congress.

Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson is running for Congress in the only majority-Black district in the state, which Republicans are aiming to eliminate. Pearson told NOTUS that his plans to run for higher office have not changed.

“The South is returning to its retributionist state post-Reconstruction in full force,” Pearson said. “This is going to be devastating for generations of Black Americans because the policies, the viewpoints, the legislation that is going to be passed to codify white supremacy over the next several years will have lasting consequences.”