Sen. Jon Tester couldn’t overcome the political reality that Montana is a very, very red state.
Tester is projected to lose to Republican Tim Sheehy, a young former Navy SEAL backed by former President Donald Trump. The Associated Press called the race on Wednesday morning. Trump handily won the state for the third presidential election in a row.
Tester, the last Democrat to hold statewide or federal office in Montana, has held on to his seat through several cycles despite Republicans gaining a clear advantage. The Senate GOP considered Tester’s seat a must-win in their quest to win back the majority (as they had in 2012 and 2018 when Tester narrowly won), and he was one of the most vulnerable incumbents running on what was a tough map for Democrats.
By the time the race was called Republicans had already taken control of the upper chamber.
Even as polls showed Sheehy pulling ahead throughout the race’s final months, Democrats still hoped that Tester would hold on as he had in his last two races.
Tester won his previous races by playing up his authentic Montana brand, often talking about his past as a dirt farmer and how he lost three of his fingers in a meat-grinding accident. But Sheehy’s pitch that Tester had become a “career politician” proved effective.
Tester’s defeat also reflects a battle Democrats have fought this election cycle to maintain and win rural voters in states like Montana, where ticket splitting is becoming a thing of the past.
Catherine LaVerdure, a 33-year-old single mom in rural Augusta, told NOTUS in October that she believed ticket splitters were out there. Her friends, especially women, had been quietly whispering over morning coffee about their plans to vote Democrat for weeks. She said she felt Tester had done a good job of staying moderate in Congress.
“He hasn’t thrown his agenda in anybody’s face,” she said. “I think everybody’s kind of tired of the very radical left and the very radical right. And I think, personally, Tester will appeal to the group of people who are tired of that.”
Sheehy ran on an anti establishment message that has proved successful for Republicans: He slammed Tester for being in Washington for so long and lumped him in with the Biden-Harris administration. As a senator, Tester has been careful to distance himself from the White House.
Sheehy moved to Montana in 2014 fresh out of the Navy SEALs and founded an aerial firefighting company, Bridger Aerospace. The GOP recruited him to unseat Tester, riding a wave of increasing Republican voting in Montana and Trump’s six-year grudge against Tester for blocking the former president’s nominee for veterans affairs secretary.
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Helen Huiskes is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.