Jon Husted Likes His Chances

Ohio’s 2026 Senate election is shaping up to be one of the most-watched races of the cycle — a big-money fight in a state that’s consistently drifted red but still tempts Democrats.

Without President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, Democrats are hopeful that former Sen. Sherrod Brown can pull off an upset and show that the party can still compete in the midwest. Republican Sen. John Husted, appointed to the seat after JD Vance became Trump’s vice president, says he is in a much better position to win in the state than his colleague Sen. Bernie Moreno was in 2024, or Vance was in 2022.

“When JD Vance and Bernie Moreno ran in the last two Senate races, they had brutal primaries that left them broke and bruised coming out of those primaries heading into the general election,” Husted said. “We are already focused on the 2026 race, not on brutal primaries like we’ve had to face in the past.”

Once a national bellwether, Ohio has lost its swing-state status, leaning Republican since 2016. Brown is banking on his ties to union and blue-collar voters — and that Trump’s popularity continues to wane — to pull off the upset.

“Sherrod has always overperformed his party,” a strategist for Brown’s campaign said. Brown lost in 2024 by 3 points, while Trump won the state by 11.

Democrats hope that Republican candidates will bear the brunt of voters’ frustrations with the White House. A Bowling Green State University Democracy poll found Trump’s approval rating underwater by 10 points in Ohio; 56% of voters say the economy is worse than a year ago, and 60% oppose Trump’s tariff policies.

“Sherrod is out there every day talking about tariffs and how they’re driving up prices all around the country,” the Brown campaign strategist said.

But Husted isn’t distancing himself from Trump or Vance. In fact, he’s leaning into their endorsements, betting Ohio hasn’t broken from Trumpism since 2016.

“People will try to say that this is a referendum on Donald Trump, I hear that often. Well, the president won Ohio by 8 points, 8 points and 11 points, oh and by the way, we have a very popular Ohio vice president in JD Vance,” Husted said.

Husted said he has already flipped several endorsements from Brown’s camp, including some labor unions, a key base for Brown. So far, Husted has picked up the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 18 and Local 66 chapters and the Northwest Ohio Building and Construction Trades Council — all former Brown endorsers.

“He lost by 200,000 votes, and even some of the people that supported him the last time have already flipped to support me,” Husted said.

The Ohio State Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters and the Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters both endorsed Republican Vivek Ramaswamy for governor, but Brown for Senate, signaling some staying power for Brown’s union ties. Brown received over 100,000 more votes in 2024 than former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Between Brown’s loss last year and a Democratic Party struggling to define itself, Husted sees little appetite for a familiar face.

“Many Democrats are saying, ‘How are we supposed to move forward with the same old candidates?’” Husted said.

A GOP strategist working on Ramaswamy’s campaign said they believed Brown’s name recognition — while seen as a huge plus among national Democrats — could hurt him.

“We’re in an era where voters don’t trust institutions. Sherrod Brown is an institution in the state, and they’ve already rejected him once. There’s this feeling that these institutions, including Sherrod Brown, let voters down time and time again,” the strategist said.

Husted is no political newcomer, though. He was lieutenant governor for six years under Gov. Mike DeWine and secretary of state for eight years before that. Both campaigns will seek to cast the other as the true incumbent and part of a broken establishment.

Current polling suggests potential for a close race. Polling from August showed Husted with a 6 point advantage, but more recent polling from BGSU showed Brown with a 1 point lead over Husted. It was an encouraging sign for Brown’s campaign, albeit well within the poll’s margin of error.

Although Brown is facing primary challenges, he is the runaway favorite for the nomination and the national Democrats’ top choice. Money has already begun coming in for both candidates, and the race is expected to break records for non-presidential election spending. Since announcing his candidacy, Brown had already raised $8 million by mid-October, and Husted had raised $3.6 million, with still more than a year until November 2026.

Brown’s lost race against Moreno was the most expensive of the cycle, with spending surpassing $500 million.

“I’m the guy that goes to all 88 counties every year for the decades that I’ve been working in the state. I know the state very well, but I’m also a football player, and I don’t care if we’re up by 21 points at halftime or whatever it is, I’m gonna keep working just as hard as I possibly can to ensure victory in 2026,” Husted said.