We Were Told There Would Be No Math

Today’s notice: Ideas meet reality. Trump meets the economy. On the ground in Alabama. And that unresolved D.C. budget thing is staying unresolved.

Between the Rock…

How do Republicans make the kinds of federal spending cuts the party has promised for decades while keeping those cuts from spelling electoral oblivion?

That’s the question Republican lawmakers are trying to answer this week as they hash out the details of the budget bill. We don’t often get to see members really sweating policy like this; it’s usually more fun to talk about than to do. (See: Democrats circa 2009-2010 on that whole health care reform thing, don’t ask them about the electoral oblivion part.)

Medicaid cuts have taken center stage as the official GOP Hard Thing of this particular legislative attempt. Much like the Democratic health care debate of yore, it is easy for reporters to find out what various Republicans want to do in terms of cuts, but very hard to figure out what they actually will do.

Republicans want to find $880 billion in cuts. President Donald Trump said he doesn’t want to cut Medicaid for “those great people that are in need.” That math is not quite mathing, as Republicans are discovering.

While moderate and conservative Republicans are in agreement on work requirements and ensuring undocumented immigrants don’t receive benefits, they “aren’t any closer to reconciling” their differences over Medicaid cuts, NOTUS’ Katherine Swartz reports.

But wait, there’s more! Republicans from blue states pushing for a bigger state and local tax deduction say they are on the same page as GOP leadership on upping the cap, but left a meeting Wednesday no closer to agreeing what that number is, NOTUS’ Shifra Dayak reports.

Taken at face value, there really is no easy way to solve these problems. Some people will lose and some people will win in these particular math problems. But Republicans have a solution, or rather, they hope they do.

As we’ve reported, the various factions in these debates are relying on Trump to silence every other faction and ensure the Smart Thing is done. They count on the fact that Trump controls the Republican base and his popularity will act like a spoonful of sugar for any distasteful compromises. It is a good theory — the peace has been kept for the most part despite the GOP’s tiny margin in the House.

But what if Trump loses some powers of persuasion? If cuts that Americans may actually feel were hard to do before, taking him out of the equation makes that math even harder.

—Evan McMorris-Santoro | Read Katherine’s story. | Read Shifra’s story.

…And the Hard Place

A thing that has annoyed Trump opponents to no end is that in voters’ minds, he is stubbornly seen as competent on the economy. Trump leaned into this reputation on Wednesday, NOTUS’ Violet Jira reports, repeatedly blaming “Biden’s economy” for the declining stock market, GDP and anything else that might point to an economic downturn.

But it is very hard to convince voters that the real pain they’re feeling isn’t the fault of the guy in charge right now. (See again: Democrats, who thought the word “Bidenomics” would be a good 2024 bumper sticker.)

If Trump is still seen as strong on the economy by voters, all this might work politically (and provide some cover to Republicans). But a veteran Democratic strategist reached out yesterday with another 100-day poll showing voters losing confidence in the president’s economic stewardship.

This poll was from Navigator Research, distributed to Democratic allies in an effort to unify messaging. It found the approval of Trump’s handling of the economy the lowest it’s been in eight years of Navigator tracking, and — more consequently in the minds of Democrats — lower than his overall approval rating (which was also low).

“For nearly a decade, Democrats have tried to defeat his brand in the economy,” strategist Jesse Ferguson, an adviser to Navigator, told us. “In 100 days, he’s done it to himself.”

—Evan McMorris-Santoro and Helen Huiskes | Read Violet’s story.

What an ‘Environmental Justice’ Cut Can Mean

Residents of Lowndes County, Alabama, finally thought help was coming to address the sewage problem in their towns — a problem so bad that it’s not uncommon for untreated sewage to pool in front yards and for sinks and toilets to clog when it rains.

The Biden administration had identified Lowndes County as a target to receive “environmental justice” funding. But that agreement was canceled after a Trump executive order went after such initiatives.

NOTUS’ Torrence Banks traveled to the predominantly Black county for a story with Anna Kramer and found a raw-sewage problem that will likely go unsolved for a while, leaving people there reeling.

Read the on-the-ground deep dive.

Front Page

• DOJ Flatly Declined to Destroy a List of FBI Staff Who Worked on Jan. 6 Cases: Lawyers for FBI employees argued the Trump administration compiled the list for retribution.
• Lawmakers Are Growing More Skeptical Trump’s Tariffs Will Spark an Industrial Renaissance: Many economists are worried that the United States is heading toward shortages.
• Democrats Don’t Want to Talk About a Possible Recession: Democrats want to message on the economy. But they’d rather err on the side of caution when it comes to a recession.
• FEC Commissioners Begin a De Facto Shutdown With a Warning for Congress: The Federal Election Commission is about to lose its quorum for high-level business.

NOTUS Exclusive: Ukraine Gets Help From the Never Trump GOP

Republicans for Ukraine, a group led by some prominent figures in the Never Trump movement, is out with a campaign that features 60 direct-to-camera testimonials from lifelong Republican voters — some of whom voted for Trump — and makes case that supporting Ukraine is a key policy position for the GOP.

Read the story from NOTUS’ Katherine Swartz.

Rhetoric Check-In: On Using the IRS as a Political Weapon

As Trump pushes the IRS to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, many Republicans on Capitol Hill who spent years accusing the IRS of political bias don’t see a conflict between their previous stances and the president’s pressure campaign against the university, NOTUS’ Haley Byrd Wilt reports.

Read the story.

Will D.C. Ever Get Its Money Back?

The District of Columbia’s budget has a $1 billion hole that Congress created. The Senate passed a bill to fix it. Now House Republicans are saying they’re just too busy to bring it to the floor.

As the city prepares to furlough workers and shutter buildings, NOTUS’ Emily Kennard asked Republicans about the latest on fixing its budget. Most aren’t in a hurry to do so. Some hard-liners want Congress to take more control of the city entirely.

Read the story.

Not Us

We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.

• USPS law enforcement assists Trump ‘mass deportation’ effort, sources and records show, by Jacob Bogage and Hannah Natanson for The Washington Post
• Stefanik Saw Her Cabinet Dream Dashed. She Blames the Speaker, Not the President. By Annie Karni for The New York Times
• Drugmakers Have Spent Millions Targeting ‘Middlemen’—and It’s Paying Off, by Josh Dawsey, Kristina Peterson and Maggie Severns for The Wall Street Journal

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